UFC Fight Night 170: Lee vs. Oliveira - Predictions and Picks

After a big pay-per-view show this weekend, the UFC heads to Brazil for their latest Fight Night this weekend, as Lightweights Kevin Lee and Charles Oliveira take the spotlight in the main event.

As you’d expect, the card is chock-full of Brazilian fighters – a healthy mix of fan-favorite veterans and rising prospects – and while the show is overall lacking in some casual intrigue, the presence of exciting fighters like Renato Moicano, Johnny Walker and Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos mean it might be worth watching.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 170: Lee vs. Oliveira.

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Lightweights: Kevin Lee vs. Charles Oliveira

Charles Oliveira is on the best run of his UFC career

This Lightweight clash promises to be a hell of a fight between two of the division’s most experienced younger fighters. Despite being in the UFC since 2010, Oliveira is still only 30 years old, and with 6 straight wins to his name, he’s on the best run of his career. But does he have enough to deal with former title challenger Lee, who recently KO’d Gregor Gillespie with a vicious head kick?

Traditionally, Oliveira belongs to a group of fighters – like CB Dollaway, Anthony Pettis, and Andrei Arlovski – who are spectacular when they’re on offense but struggle greatly in terms of defense. The proof is in the record; ‘Do Bronx’ is 16-8 in the UFC (with one No Contest) and outside of a 2014 win over Jeremy Stephens, all of his wins have come via stoppage.

On the flip-side though, outside of a 2013 fight with Frankie Edgar, he’s also been finished in all of his losses. And while his current run has been fantastic, it’s worth noting that all of the wins were relatively quick, against fighters who largely failed to hurt him or put pressure on him.

Lee should be a far sterner test. ‘The Motown Phenom’ looked like the future of the 155lbs division when he reeled off 6 wins in 7 attempts from 2016 to 2018, with the only loss coming to Tony Ferguson, but a striking-based setback to Al Iaquinta triggered an ill-advised move to 170lbs, where he was outclassed by Rafael Dos Anjos.

Since then though, he’s moved back to 155lbs, and made an instant impact with that KO of Gillespie.

So how do the two match up? They’re basically poles apart when it comes to their styles; Oliveira is all flashy offense, whether it’s on the feet or on the ground. A venomous grappler, ‘Do Bronx’ has used a ridiculous amount of submissions across his UFC career, using anaconda chokes, guillotine chokes, and even a calf slicer to tap his opponents out.

He’s recently developed a lot more striking power too, knocking out his last two opponents with clean, straight punches – something he rarely used in his earlier career. His weaknesses have tended to come with a lack of durability – as has already been mentioned – and while it hasn’t really cost him fights, his wrestling defense isn’t the best.

Lee meanwhile is all about the takedown; although his striking has come on since his UFC debut, and he’s now comfortable boxing with opponents and has a solid jab, his grappling is his bread and butter. He’s a powerful wrestler, uses brutal ground-and-pound when he has an opponent on the mat and is tremendously dangerous from the back mount, able to choke opponents as good as Michael Chiesa and Francisco Trinaldo out.

His big weakness has historically been his conditioning – Lee has a bad tendency to gas out, particularly if he pushes a hard pace early on – but that won’t likely be a problem here as Oliveira isn’t a cardio machine either and he isn’t likely to look to drag Lee into deep waters as Dos Anjos did.

For me, this is a very tricky fight for Oliveira; he’s got the skills to finish Lee, but the problem is that ‘The Motown Phenom’ is far more physically gifted, and has the power to hurt the Brazilian both on the feet and on the ground. If these guys trade-off, then Lee probably has the chin to withstand Oliveira’s striking power and if he lands something like he did against Gillespie, then ‘Do Bronx’ is toast.

And on the ground, Oliveira can hunt for submissions all he likes, but while Ferguson caught Lee in a triangle choke from the bottom, he also took a tremendous beating before that – something that the Brazilian just doesn’t have the durability to survive.

Oliveira basically has a puncher’s chance here – both on his feet and in a metaphorical sense on the ground – but I just think he’s physically overmatched in this one and won’t be capable of withstanding Lee’s power.

The Pick: Lee via second-round TKO

Welterweights: Demian Maia vs. Gilbert Burns

Demian Maia remains hugely successful at the age of 42

After suffering 3 losses in a row – to Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman – it looked like Demian Maia’s time at the top of the 170lbs division was coming to an end as 2019 dawned. But the 42-year old veteran then enjoyed a tremendous year, defeating younger opponents in Lyman Good, Anthony Rocco Martin, and Ben Askren, picking up two more submissions in the process.

At such an age, it’s natural to question exactly how much more Maia has in the tank, but his preferred style of fighting – positional-based grappling with a penchant for slick submissions – doesn’t require a huge amount of athleticism and means he’s still capable of thriving against all but a few opponents.

Is Burns amongst those few? It’s hard to say. The Brazilian emerged into the UFC back in 2014 with a stellar reputation as a world-class grappler, but despite only suffering 3 losses since, he hasn’t impressed as much as many would’ve hoped. Often he’s shelved his grappling in order to use his powerful but slightly rudimentary striking skills, and he’s never really dominated his opponents despite currently being on a 4-fight win streak.

An explosive fireplug of a 155lber, Burns has power in his punches and has looked improved on the feet recently, but it’s still on the ground where he truly excels. He’s got a lengthy resume in the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu world, winning gold medals in various world championships and taking a bronze in the prestigious Abu Dhabi grappling tournament in 2015.

The problem for him here is that Maia has traditionally eaten any grapplers that have faced him for breakfast – even highly credentialed ones like Gunnar Nelson, Jon Fitch, and Ben Askren. The only man to beat Maia while primarily grappling with him was Jake Shields, and that was a questionable win based largely on Shields’ ability to claim top position.

Outside of that, Maia’s losses all follow the same pattern – they came against powerful wrestlers who were able to keep the fight standing and do damage there while also using Maia’s failed takedown attempts to tire him out. In this fight though, for all of Burns’ athletic gifts, I’m not sure that he fits the same mold as someone like Usman or Woodley – he’s much more like a Nelson or Ryan LaFlare.

Can Maia finish Burns? Probably not; ‘Durinho’ has never been submitted and the likelihood of such a credentialed grappler being tapped – even by Maia – seems low, but unless father time has really caught up with the 42-year old to the point where his skills have diminished in the 5 months since the Askren fight, I don’t see any way he loses this one.

The Pick: Maia via unanimous decision

Lightweights: Renato Moicano vs. Damir Hadzovic

After a tricky 2019, Renato Moicano is moving to 155lbs for the first time

Few fighters suffered as horrible a 2019 as Renato Moicano. The Brazilian looked set to move into title contention after a red-hot run between 2014 and 2018 saw him go 5-1 in the UFC, with wins over Cub Swanson and Calvin Kattar, but last year saw him stopped twice, both by strikes, at the hands of Jose Aldo and then Chan Sung Jung.

The Brazilian is still extremely dangerous, though; he’s a slick grappler capable of latching onto a nasty choke with a second’s notice, and on the feet, he’s improved dramatically, to the point where he was actually doing well against Aldo until he got caught in the second round. He uses a pretty stiff jab, puts some combinations together well and his leg kicks are excellent.

As a first fight at 155lbs, this looks like a much more favorable fight for him, too; Hadzovic is probably the lowest-ranked opponent he’s faced since his UFC debut against Tom Niinimaki, and while he’s got power on the feet and has a decent wrestling game, nothing about his skills really marks him out as being truly dangerous.

This is still a winnable fight for the native of Bosnia; after suffering two knockout losses, Moicano may well come in gunshy, or worse, might’ve lost his durability altogether. But I personally doubt that; he wasn’t outclassed by Aldo, and the Korean Zombie is capable of knocking out any opponent.

In all honesty, then, this seems more like a nice rebound fight for Moicano to get back on the winning track in a new weight class in his home country. No offense to Hadzovic, but this is perhaps the most one-sided fight – on paper at least – on the whole card. If Christos Giagos can comfortably outwork Hadzovic, then I’ve got no doubt that Moicano can too.

The Pick: Moicano via unanimous decision

Light-Heavyweights: Johnny Walker vs. Nikita Krylov

Johnny Walker's fight with Nikita Krylov should guarantee fireworks

We’ve seen some wild fights thus far in 2020 – UFC 248 alone had two of the crazier ones in Beneil Dariush vs. Drakkar Klose and Weili Zhang vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk – but this one could well turn out to be the wildest of them all. Both Walker and Krylov simply have no idea what it means to fight a measured and patient fight, and it’s hardly a surprise to learn that they have a total of 10 stoppages in the UFC between them.

Brazil’s Walker looked all set to be heading for a title shot at some point in 2020 following a red-hot start to his UFC career; he knocked out Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov in incredible fashion, but then ended up being crushed in turn by Corey Anderson, ending his hopes of a fight with Jon Jones.

Krylov meanwhile garnered a cult reputation in the UFC with 5 entertaining wins from 2014 to 2016, but a loss to Misha Cirkunov sent him out of the promotion temporarily. ‘The Miner’ returned in 2018, only to lose in surprising fashion to Jan Blachowicz. Since then, he avenged an earlier loss to Ovince St. Preux before dropping a tight decision to veteran Glover Teixeira in his last fight.

That fight saw a new wrinkle for Krylov – patience – but it’s doubtful that we’ll see more of that in this fight, as Walker is far more aggressive than Teixeira – and judging by his loss to Anderson, he’s far less durable, too. So essentially, this fight is kill-or-be-killed for both fighters.

This is probably the trickiest fight on the entire card to pick purely because both guys are so unpredictable and are so open to being hurt just as much as they are to taking out their opponent in a wild rush. Both men are more than able to knocking the other out and while Krylov’s grappling is more proven, I have a lot of doubts that the fight even gets that far.

I’m predicting a wild brawl here, unsurprisingly, and a coin flip tells me that Walker gets the job done in a violent opening stanza.

The Pick: Walker via first-round KO

Lightweights: Francisco Trinaldo vs. John Makdessi

Francisco Trinaldo is one of the UFC's oldest fighters at 41

One of the oldest fighters on the UFC roster at 41, ‘Massaranduba’ Trinaldo belies his age by somehow appearing to still be in his fighting prime, perhaps because he’s taken far less damage than other fighters who’ve been around since 2006. A large 155lber, Trinaldo is currently 14-6 in the Octagon – and would be 15-5 were it not for a terrible decision against Alexander Hernandez last year.

‘Massaranduba’ is an excellent fighter in all areas, but the main reason he excels is his power, whether that’s in terms of his heavy strikes or his brute-force style of grappling. At times his cardio has let him down, but those incidents have been relatively rare; he has plenty of decision wins to his name, and in all honesty, very few real weaknesses.

So, what to make of this fight with Makdessi? ‘The Bull’ is another real veteran, having debuted in the UFC back in 2010, and while he’s impressed at times, he’s often been one of the most frustrating fighters on the roster to watch.

The Canadian is an excellent technical striker, but he’s almost purely a counter-attacker, meaning against the wrong opponent, it’s easy for him to be lulled into a dull staring contest – as we saw in his last fight, a diabolical showing against Jesus Pinedo that saw Makdessi pick up a win by virtue of landing a handful more strikes than his foe.

Makdessi has a solid enough chin; he’s only ever been KO’d by a spinning wheel kick from Lando Vannata, but he was also outstruck by Donald Cerrone, who broke his jaw, and found it hard going against Mehdi Baghdad too. And while his wrestling isn’t too bad, on the ground he’s never looked fully comfortable.

To me, this comes down to whether Trinaldo gets lulled into a point-fighting contest, as he did somewhat in his fight with Hernandez. If he does, for all of his striking skill, there’s every chance that Makdessi does just enough to edge out a decision.

If Trinaldo can get inside and rough him up though, I think he’s got enough in his arsenal to either take Makdessi down and grind out a decision or find a submission, or even to land a big enough shot to take him out standing. And in the end, ‘Massaranduba’ is the more proven fighter at a higher level.

The Pick: Trinaldo via unanimous decision

The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Flashy striker Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos headlines this weekend's prelims

A bout order for this event – in terms of the prelims at least – has not been announced, but I’m willing to assume all 7 fights will be shown on the ESPN+ platform.

At the top of the card, we’ve got a Welterweight showdown between strikers Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos and Alexey Kunchenko. This should also be an interesting clash of styles between Kunchenko’s more standard kickboxing and Zaleski’s flashy, capoeira-infused style. I’m going with Zaleski in this one, probably by decision, as Kunchenko’s two UFC wins came against older, slower fighters while Zaleski’s speed is one of his big strengths, plus he’s got a dangerous ground game.

At Flyweight, Jussier Formiga returns to take on Mexico’s Brandon Moreno in a fight that seems tailor-made for the Brazilian; Formiga’s striking has improved but he’s still arguably the most dangerous grappler in the division, while Moreno’s own bread and butter is his grappling. ‘The Assassin Baby’ has struggled through his UFC career against fellow grapplers, so I’ll take Formiga to win by decision.

In a Flyweight battle, former Strawweight contender Maryna Moroz faces Mayra Bueno Silva. This is a classic striker vs. grappler match on paper at least; Silva submitted Gillian Robertson in impressive fashion in her UFC debut, while Moroz has made her name with a long striking game but has often struggled on the ground. I’m taking Silva in this one as she looks like the bigger fighter and given how good her grappling appeared to be against Robertson, she might have Moroz in trouble if she gets her down. Silva via submission is my pick.

Bruno Silva returns at Flyweight to take on late replacement David Dvorak and while the Czech fighter is on a strong run – 13 wins in a row – he’s taken this fight on a month’s notice and has never fought at this level before. I’m not sure how great Silva is and whether he’ll be capable of sticking around in the UFC, but I like the Team Nogueira product to win this one, probably by late submission.

At Bantamweight, Veronica Macedo faces Bea Malecki. ‘Bad News Barbie’ debuted last year with a rear-naked choke win over Duda Santana, but she also has only 3 professional fights to her name compared to 4 in the UFC alone for Macedo. It’s also worth noting that while she was beaten by Ashlee Evans-Smith, Andrea Lee and Gillian Robertson, Macedo was never blown out. I’m taking her to win this one by submission, but if Malecki is as good as her debut suggested, I could be wrong.

Finally, Strawweights Randa Markos and Amanda Ribas face off. Ribas has looked good in her UFC run so far; she’s 2-0 and outpointed dangerous grappler Mackenzie Dern in her last outing, but Markos is a different level entirely; with a little more consistency, she’d probably be a genuine title contender, and she has wins over the likes of Carla Esparza, Angela Hill, and Juliana Lima. I like Markos here, probably by decision.