UFC Fight Night 172: Eye vs. Calvillo - Predictions and Picks

After another strong show at the UFC APEX this past weekend – UFC 250 – the UFC returns this Saturday with another, far weaker card.

UFC Fight Night 172: Eye vs. Calvillo is perhaps the weakest UFC show of all time, on paper at least, but can you really blame the promotion? In all honesty, no. Right now they’re just trying to ensure their roster are offered the fights their contracts dictate, while also attempting to live up to their deal with ESPN. Essentially, thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, any show will do.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 172: Eye vs. Calvillo.

#1 Flyweight: Jessica Eye vs. Cynthia Calvillo

Jessica Eye is one of the Flyweight division's best boxers

Okay, so let’s not beat around the bush. Both of these women are excellent fighters, but is this a highly anticipated UFC main event? Certainly not. Neither has captured the imagination of the casual fans, and neither has ever main evented a UFC show before. But as was mentioned during the introduction, the Covid-19 pandemic has changed a lot of things.

Thankfully, there is an argument to be made that this fight could impact the UFC Flyweight title picture. Eye isn’t likely to gain another crack at Valentina Shevchenko with a win, but given she’s still ranked as the division’s top contender, if Calvillo were to defeat her, then she could well face the champion at some point in the future.

Interestingly enough, the fight also sees a former Bantamweight in Eye against a former Strawweight in Calvillo. Does that mean that ‘Evil’ will have a large size advantage come Saturday? Perhaps not; although Eye missed weight for her last outing, she only stands 2” taller than Calvillo and will only have a 2” reach advantage.

The truth is that Calvillo should’ve made this move years ago; she’s failed to make the 115lbs Strawweight limit twice in the past, including for her previous fight.

So how do the two match up in terms of style? In terms of striking, both women largely favour a boxing-based game, but while Calvillo’s combinations have helped her to defeat the likes of Pearl Gonzalez, Joanne Calderwood and Cortney Casey, you’d have to class her very much as a developing striker.

Casey, for instance, chewed up Calvillo’s legs with kicks, while her most recent opponent – Marina Rodriguez – dominated her from the clinch and the outside. So how has the Californian been able to go 5-1-1 in the UFC? Largely because her ground game is so venomous that she’s able to let her fists fly with no fear of what’ll happen if a fight hits the ground.

Calvillo’s grappling is fantastic. She’s picked up three submission wins in the UFC, but also used her ground game to really cement her wins over Calderwood and Casey, and took a draw from Rodriguez by dominating her in the third round on the ground. She even dominated Carla Esparza on the ground in her lone loss.

However, the rest of that fight should be considered concerning. Esparza – not the greatest striker in the division – dominated Calvillo on the feet largely by being more of a varied striker, and due to her powerful wrestling, Calvillo was unable to get her to the ground in the later rounds.

Essentially, Calvillo thrives in a fight in which she can either use her grappling to take out an opponent on the ground, or use the threat of her grappling to allow her to land strikes, even if she initially appears outgunned.

For me, that probably leaves her in a bit of trouble against Eye, who also favours a boxing-based striking attack, but likely has much quicker hands than Calvillo. Eye’s combinations are remarkably fast when she’s at her best, and while she doesn’t tend to offer knockout power – she’s gone to decision in all but one of her 6 UFC wins – she can overwhelm even excellent kickboxers with her volume.

Kalindra Faria, Jessica-Rose Clark and Katlyn Chookagian were all beaten in this manner en route to Eye’s title shot, and while ‘Evil’ was found badly wanting by Shevchenko, who KO’d her with a brutal head kick, the native of Cleveland, Ohio showed no real issues in bouncing back from that loss in her most recent fight, another decision over Viviane Araujo.

Would Eye find herself in trouble on the ground with Calvillo? Perhaps, but it’ll be very hard for the former Strawweight to put her there. Eye has a strong wrestling background, and she’s also been used to fighting much larger, powerful wrestlers such as Julianna Pena, Miesha Tate and former Olympian Sara McMann.

Add in the fact that Eye will possess a reach advantage and should be able to use it to keep Calvillo at a distance, and I find it hard to see the Californian being able to really threaten the former title challenger with either her takedowns or striking.

Eye will need to be careful, particularly if the fight goes to the ground, but assuming she doesn’t gas out in only her second ever five round fight, I don’t see any reason why she can’t comfortably use her size advantage and boxing skill to outpoint Calvillo for a decision.

The Pick: Eye via unanimous decision

#2 Middleweight: Marvin Vettori vs. Karl Roberson

Can Marvin Vettori use his grappling to defeat Karl Roberson?

This Middleweight clash was initially intended to take place on May’s Fight Night 171 card, but ended up being scrapped the day before the event took place. Surprisingly enough, Covid-19 wasn’t to blame; instead, Roberson was hospitalised due to weight cutting issues.

Normally you’d expect that kind of thing to be a cue for ‘Baby K’ to move up to 205lbs – where he’s fought before – permanently, but instead the UFC have re-booked the fight for this show. So who will take the win, and will Roberson’s weight issues again raise their head?

In my initial preview for this fight, I suggested that while it’d be fair to state that the fight should be considered a classic striker vs. grappler clash, both men have actually developed their overall games during their UFC runs. Kickboxer Roberson has two submission wins on his record, while Vettori’s striking has come on leaps and bounds.

However, while Marvin Vettori has developed from a raw grappler with some power punches into a formidable, well-rounded fighter, Roberson’s grappling improvements may not have helped him all that much. Rather than looking purely to deploy his excellent kickboxing, ‘Baby K’ has instead shown a penchant for grappling when it’s not all that necessary – almost causing him to lose to the very raw Wellington Turman in 2019, for instance.

With all that in mind, my initial pick was Vettori, and that feeling only grows stronger in the knowledge that Roberson is probably cutting a lot of weight to make the 185lbs Middleweight limit.

The likelihood is that by depleting himself, he’ll actually be at a strength disadvantage against ‘The Italian Dream’, a monstrously powerful man. And with his willingness to grapple with opponents, I feel like Marvin Vettori will be able to have his way with the kickboxer from the clinch and on the ground, putting together enough offense to win a clear-cut decision.

The Pick: Marvin Vettori via unanimous decision

#3 Bantamweight: Ray Borg vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili should hold a wrestling advantage over Ray Borg

This clash of Bantamweights could prove to be an interesting – and exciting – one if we go by both men’s recent fights. Neither Borg nor Dvalishvili have too many finishes to their name – particularly in the UFC – but their scramble-heavy styles and hard pace should mean a lot of action throughout their showdown this weekend.

A former Flyweight who simply couldn’t continue to make the 125lbs limit, Borg has been a staple of the UFC since 2014. ‘The Taz-Mexican Devil’ largely relies on his wrestling to get by. His hyper-active style and explosive speed tends to allow him to close the distance on an opponent quickly, where he then looks to take them down and either submit them or beat them up.

Borg isn’t the most natural striker, but he’s not incompetent on the feet either. He can be outstruck, as his recent fight with Ricky Simon showed, but his biggest weakness appears to be against larger grapplers who can out-scramble him. Essentially, all 5 of his UFC losses have come in this manner – and it seems like at 135lbs, that’s more likely to be the case.

So can Dvalishvili avoid Borg’s takedowns and outwork him on the feet while also managing to out-scramble him should it come to that? There’s every chance that he can. A native of Georgia, ‘The Machine’ fights out of the Serra/Longo camp in New York, and while he’s shown a penchant for wild striking at times, the majority of his success comes from his takedowns.

In his fights against Casey Kenney – who, coincidentally, beat Borg when they fought – and Brad Katona, Dvalishvili had no issues in taking his opponents down at all. Kenney found himself ragdolled to the mat on 12 occasions, in fact. All of this should be highly worrying for Borg.

In this fight he’ll not only be faced with a bigger, stronger fighter, but also a man capable of throwing other 135lbers around like they’re nothing. Even if Borg decides to make this a striking battle, he’ll likely still be in trouble. He’s 2” shorter than the Georgian, and has a 5” reach disadvantage too.

You can’t count a veteran as wily as Borg out of any fight, and Dvalishvili is wild enough to leave some gaps, but while he found himself in trouble against Simon in his own UFC debut due to that penchant, he’s since tightened the holes in his game greatly.

Overall I just think this fight looks too much like Borg’s other losses to bode well for ‘The Taz-Mexican Devil’. I can’t see how he stops Dvalishvili’s takedown and once they’re on the ground, ‘The Machine’ is good enough to control Borg and beat him up for a decision.

The Pick: Dvalishvili via unanimous decision

#4 Featherweight: Andre Fili vs. Charles Jourdain

Andre Fili looked tremendous in his 2019 win over Sheymon Moraes

Not only will this fight provide us with a battle of two of the most hilarious nicknames in MMA – ‘Touchy’ Fili vs. ‘Air’ Jourdain – but it should also be full of excitement. Fili has been putting on some of the wildest brawls in the UFC for the best part of 7 years now, while Jourdain was part of one of 2019’s best fights against Doo Ho Choi last December.

Despite showing a massive amount of potential, ‘Touchy’ has never quite reached the top of the 145lbs division. However, it’s worth noting that the majority of his 6 UFC losses have come to genuinely great fighters – names like Max Holloway, Yair Rodriguez and Calvin Kattar, as well as hot prospect Sodiq Yusuff.

A lanky Featherweight who stands at 5’11” and has a 74” reach, Fili’s attacking style is largely based around a strong kicking game and long, straight punches. He has never really established a strong jab to maximise that reach – hence why he’s constantly involved in wild brawls – but he’s a powerful striker with a solid chin and knockout power.

On the ground too, the Team Alpha Male product is a highly dangerous fighter. Fili isn’t the best wrestler, but he’s capable of taking his opponents down from the clinch and on the ground he possesses a truly venomous ground game, able to scramble and snatch submission attempts from wild angles.

However, he’s also susceptible to smoother grapplers, too. He was smothered by Hacran Dias and Dennis Bermudez, for instance, and was also submitted by Holloway and his own mirror image, Brazilian wildman Godofredo Pepey.

How does he match with Jourdain? ‘Air’ is a little harder to judge given that we haven’t seen all that much of him in the UFC, and his debut – a loss to Desmond Green – essentially saw him outpointed by Green’s combination of a takedown threat and a solid jab.

However, his fight with Choi offered more. A wild brawl from the off, Jourdain found himself in serious trouble on more than one occasion, but he was able to hang tough and survive the punching power of ‘The Korean Superboy’, and ended up turning the tables on him with a vicious second round combination.

For me this one comes down to what Fili decides to do. If he comes in and looks for a more cerebral approach, then there’s no reason why he can’t use his length and striking skills to keep Jourdain at distance, picking him apart for a decision or a late TKO. However, if he gets too wild – and there’s every chance he does – he could find himself open to a brutal counterpunch from a man who is clearly capable of eating up punishment.

Overall it’s admittedly hard to trust Fili given his history, but in his more recent fights he’s appeared to be fighting smarter – particularly in his impressive 2019 win over notable striker Sheymon Moraes. I’m going to pick him to pull out a late TKO win here, based largely on his volume, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this went the other way.

The Pick: Fili via third round TKO

#5 Bantamweight: Jordan Espinosa vs. Mark De La Rosa

Mark De La Rosa will look to save his UFC career with a win this weekend

This Bantamweight clash will almost certainly be a loser-leaves-town match. De La Rosa – once considered a solid prospect at 125lbs – has lost his last three fights in pretty comprehensive fashion, while Espinosa is coming off two losses by triangle choke. It’s also notable that both men are moving up to 135lbs for this one.

So who takes the win? From what I’ve seen of both men, they’re similar fighters. Neither is the most natural striker, but both men are willing to exchange on the feet in order to close the distance and get the fight to their real realm – the ground.

I’d say that Espinosa – who is slightly taller and has more reach – is more adept on the feet, but it’s close to call. It is worth nothing, though, that he’s never been stopped by strikes – while De La Rosa suffered his first KO loss earlier this year and was also stunned badly by Kai Kara-France in their fight.

However, on the ground you’d have to suspect the advantage to lie with ‘Bumblebee’. While both men have multiple submissions wins to their name – De La Rosa has 6, Espinosa has 7 – De La Rosa has never been submitted – while Espinosa has been tapped out on 4 occasions.

This one could honestly go either way due to the grappling chops of both men, and the fact that Espinosa seems to be the more gifted athlete and will have a slight size advantage. However, I’m going to bet on the experience and tighter grappling skill of De La Rosa to pull through – saving his UFC career in the process.

The Pick: De La Rosa via second round submission

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Longtime veteran Charles Rosa headlines this weekend's prelims

This weekend’s prelims will all be shown on ESPN+. At the top of the card is a Featherweight clash between Boston’s Charles Rosa and ‘The Angel of Death’, Kevin Aguilar. Both men have seen largely mixed results across their UFC careers, going 3-4 and 2-2 respectively, but there can be little doubt that Rosa – who has fought Yair Rodriguez and Shane Burgos – has seen the better opponents.

This one could go either way; Aguilar is probably the more concussive striker, but he lacks the grappling chops of Rosa and I’d also give ‘Boston Strong’ an advantage in the cardio department. I like Rosa to edge a decision in this one, or find a submission in the later rounds.

At Bantamweight, strong prospect Julia Avila faces off with the returning Gina Mazany, who is taking this fight on relatively late notice. I feel like Avila is probably the clear favourite in this one; Mazany went 1-3 in her initial UFC run, never truly impressed, and was also beaten violently in her last fight. Avila meanwhile is a powerful striker with experience against excellent opponents, and she most recently outpointed solid contender Pannie Kianzad, albeit almost a year ago. Despite that layoff, I’m taking Avila by TKO here.

At Flyweight, it’s a battle of veterans as Ryan Benoit takes on Tyson Nam. Nam rose to fame back in 2012 with his KO of then-Bellator Bantamweight champ Eduardo Dantas, but some contract issues prevented him from joining the UFC and 8 years down the line, he’s become more of a journeyman. Benoit meanwhile has shown some flashes of potential since his UFC debut in 2013, but has always struggled for consistency. I feel like he’s closer to his fighting prime than Nam at this stage though, and should have the overall skills to defeat the 36-year old, probably by outworking him for a decision.

In the Featherweight division, Jordan Griffin faces Darrick Minner. Minner showed nothing in his UFC debut earlier this year – a one-sided loss to Grant Dawson – but in reality he’s a solid veteran with decent skills in all areas. Griffin meanwhile picked up his first UFC win this February, choking out TJ Brown in impressive fashion. This could go either way as both men are battle-tested – but interestingly, they’ve already fought once on the regional scene, with Griffin winning via armbar. With that in mind, I’m taking him to repeat the feat and win by tapout.

At Flyweight, Ariane Lipski takes on Luana Carolina in a showdown of Brazilian strikers. Both women are coming off their first UFC victory, but Lipski has by far the more impressive reputation and is far more experienced, too. I’ll take ‘The Violence Queen’ to pick up her second Octagon win, probably by decision.

Finally, at Welterweight, Anthony Ivy faces Christian Aguilera, who could probably cause some pretty comical Google typos in the build up to the show. This is a late-notice fight for both men, largely thrown together after Ivy initially agreed to replace Ian Heinisch at UFC 250 due to a Covid-19 scare before Heinisch was eventually cleared to fight.

As such, it’s a little tricky to choose a winner, particularly as both men are largely unproven at the UFC level. Judging by the few clips I have seen, as well as their records, I think Ivy can edge out a decision here.