UFC Fight Night 172: Eye vs. Calvillo - Predictions and Picks

#2 Middleweight: Marvin Vettori vs. Karl Roberson

Can Marvin Vettori use his grappling to defeat Karl Roberson?

This Middleweight clash was initially intended to take place on May’s Fight Night 171 card, but ended up being scrapped the day before the event took place. Surprisingly enough, Covid-19 wasn’t to blame; instead, Roberson was hospitalised due to weight cutting issues.

Normally you’d expect that kind of thing to be a cue for ‘Baby K’ to move up to 205lbs – where he’s fought before – permanently, but instead the UFC have re-booked the fight for this show. So who will take the win, and will Roberson’s weight issues again raise their head?

In my initial preview for this fight, I suggested that while it’d be fair to state that the fight should be considered a classic striker vs. grappler clash, both men have actually developed their overall games during their UFC runs. Kickboxer Roberson has two submission wins on his record, while Vettori’s striking has come on leaps and bounds.

However, while Marvin Vettori has developed from a raw grappler with some power punches into a formidable, well-rounded fighter, Roberson’s grappling improvements may not have helped him all that much. Rather than looking purely to deploy his excellent kickboxing, ‘Baby K’ has instead shown a penchant for grappling when it’s not all that necessary – almost causing him to lose to the very raw Wellington Turman in 2019, for instance.

With all that in mind, my initial pick was Vettori, and that feeling only grows stronger in the knowledge that Roberson is probably cutting a lot of weight to make the 185lbs Middleweight limit.

The likelihood is that by depleting himself, he’ll actually be at a strength disadvantage against ‘The Italian Dream’, a monstrously powerful man. And with his willingness to grapple with opponents, I feel like Marvin Vettori will be able to have his way with the kickboxer from the clinch and on the ground, putting together enough offense to win a clear-cut decision.

The Pick: Marvin Vettori via unanimous decision