UFC Fight Night 173: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan - Predictions and Picks

After four straight shows on Abu Dhabi’s ‘Fight Island’, the UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend.

UFC Fight Night 173 might’ve lost its initial main event – Irene Aldana vs. Holly Holm – due to Aldana testing positive for COVID-19, but the promotion has come up with a pretty solid replacement.

Outside of that? It’s not the strongest card of 2020 but with exciting fighters such as Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland involved, it could turn out to be fun.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 173: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan.

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#1 UFC Middleweight Division: Derek Brunson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

Edmen Shahbazyan is one of the UFC's best prospects at 185lbs

Whichever way you look at it, this is some perfect matchmaking from the UFC. Brunson is arguably the highest-level gatekeeper in the promotion at 185lbs, while Shahbazyan – still just 22 years old – might be the division’s best prospect.

I’ll be honest and say that I didn’t like Shahbazyan’s chances when he emerged into the UFC in late 2018. He entered into the promotion at 7-0 after a 40-second knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series, with none of his wins coming by anything but KO or TKO.

However, his striking form looked powerful but sloppy, and worryingly, his head coach was the notorious Edmond Tarverdyan. The last time we’d really seen Edmond in the UFC, he’d been getting pretty poor results from the likes of Ronda Rousey, Travis Browne and Jake Ellenberger.

But ‘Golden Boy’ made good in his UFC debut, albeit not in the way people expected. He basically outwrestled Darren Stewart for a decision, a curious choice of gameplan considering his previous fights. Sure, he gassed out badly in doing so, but the win showed that he was more than a wild striker.

Since then, though, he’s taken everyone by surprise. One-sided wins over Charles Byrd and Jack Marshman made him a man to watch, but it was his win over Brad Tavares at UFC 244 that really raised eyebrows. Shahbazyan took out the tough veteran midway through the first round, finishing him with a head kick. It was only the third time Tavares had been stopped in a decade-long UFC career that has spanned 18 fights.

Basically then, we know ‘Golden Boy’ has finishing skills in all areas. He’s only shown glimpses of his ground game, but it looks pretty solid. And on the feet, he’s got power, his technique appears to be improving, and he’s clearly got a nasty killer instinct.

What we don’t know about him is how he responds to real adversity. That’s something that Brunson will be hoping to find out this weekend.

Brunson’s UFC career has been a curious one to follow. He debuted back in 2012 after a run in StrikeForce, and his early fights were frankly awful. His lay-and-pray wrestling style earned him few fans, and it appeared that he could easily become a Middleweight version of a Jon Fitch.

That all changed in 2015. Brunson suddenly decided to change his style, preferring to use his wrestling game in a more defensive way. He found he had crushing power in his hands, and used that power to put together a run of 4 KO wins that put him into title contention.

That all ended, however, when he ran into Robert Whittaker. Brunson’s wild striking style was simply too easy for ‘The Reaper’ to counter, and after a crazy fight, the Aussie ended up winning via TKO.

Since that fight, Brunson has gone 4-3, although he ought to be 5-2 given his loss to Anderson Silva came from some terrible judging. He’s also tended to follow the same pattern – he’s knocked out his chinnier opponents, outworked his tougher ones, but has been beaten by strikers able to counter his wilder attacks.

The big question here then is whether Shahbazyan is as sharp on the counter as his when he’s on the attack.

All of Shahbazyan’s UFC wins thus far – and judging by footage on him, a lot of his earlier wins too – have come from him simply buzzsawing through his opponent. If he tries to do that to Brunson there’s every chance he wins, but there’s also every chance that he finds himself outgunned somewhat.

There’s also a chance that if ‘Golden Boy’ does come in aggressively, Brunson simply looks to outwork him down the stretch, as he did with the aggressive Ian Heinisch at UFC 241. In that fight Brunson took some shots, but was able to defend well and used his own heavy strikes as well as his wrestling to grind out a win.

Clearly then, the best route to success for Shahbazyan would be to allow Brunson to come to him, let him make mistakes and capitalise on them. And it is worth noting that while there’s no shame in losing to counter-strikers like Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, his loss to Jacare Souza – a much less noted striker – came in the same fashion.

It’s honestly a tough fight to pick, purely because we don’t know how well Shahbazyan’s chin might hold up if Brunson does crack him, but overall I’m leaning towards the young gun.

Assuming this doesn’t turn into a wild firefight – which could go either way – then I think ‘Golden Boy’ can land the bigger shots. And given Brunson’s been knocked out before, is 36 years old, and has been fighting since 2010, I’m not sure he can survive a rush from such a great finisher.

The Pick: Shahbazyan via first round KO

#2 UFC Flyweight Division: Joanne Calderwood vs. Jennifer Maia

Joanne Calderwood's form has improved massively since her move to 125lbs

The UFC has thrown this co-main event together at relatively late notice and to be honest, they’ve done a great job. This is a pretty tremendous fight on paper, and the winner could almost certainly go onto fight Valentina Shevchenko with the UFC Women’s Flyweight title on the line.

Of the two, Calderwood has far more UFC experience. She came into the promotion via The Ultimate Fighter 20 and while she came up short in her quest for the inaugural Strawweight title, she was expected to do well overall. However, a number of disappointing losses always kept her from true UFC title contention at 115lbs.

When the UFC introduced its female Flyweight division in 2018 though, ‘Jo-Jo’ was immediately on board. She’d already fought in the UFC’s first female Flyweight fight back in 2016 – a one-off fight with Valerie Letourneau that ended with Calderwood winning by TKO.

Since the move to 125lbs, she’s been excellent. Wins over Kalindra Faria, Ariane Lipski and Andrea Lee have only been off-set by a loss to point-fighter extraordinaire Katlyn Chookagian.

At heart, ‘Jo-Jo’ is a Muay Thai striker who prefers to use her knees and elbows inside the clinch. The issue she had at 115lbs was largely that she’s not the best natural athlete. That meant that quicker, more explosive fighters such as Cynthia Calvillo and Jessica Andrade were able to give her plenty of issues, particularly on the ground.

At 125lbs though, she doesn’t appear to have that kind of disadvantage. And so if she can keep a fight on the feet and at her range, she’s definitely dangerous.

Maia is actually a similar fighter in a lot of ways, especially standing. Like Calderwood, she’s a hard-hitting Muay Thai specialist, and she came to the UFC in 2018 after a strong run as the Invicta Flyweight champion.

Her UFC career thus far has seen her go 2-2, beating tough veterans Roxanne Modafferi and Alexis Davis, but losing to Chookagian and Liz Carmouche. Her losses were both pretty disappointing as she was simply outworked, but will that be the case this weekend?

Personally, I doubt it. Calderwood is arguably the better striker – she certainly did better on her feet with Chookagian – but Maia has enough to in the least be competitive there. The issue for ‘Jo-Jo’ meanwhile is that Maia is by far the superior grappler.

Calderwood isn’t terrible on the ground per say – she did submit Faria – but it’s definitely notable that two of her UFC losses have come by tapout. Calvillo also used her ground game to outpoint the Scot, while she found herself in trouble on the mat with Cortney Casey at points too.

Maia meanwhile is a genuine Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with five submissions to her name. And she’s already shown a willingness to use takedowns, as she threw Modafferi around in their fight and even grounded the tricky Chookagian at one point.

This should be a close fight – and given both women’s penchant for going the distance, it could go either way. In the end though I’ve got to go with the fighter with more tools to win, and that’s Maia. If she finds herself in trouble standing then the takedown will likely be her way out. Expect her to take on Shevchenko at some point in 2021.

The Pick: Maia via unanimous decision

#3 UFC Welterweight Division: Vicente Luque vs. Randy Brown

Vicente Luque is one of the UFC's most exciting fighters

This Welterweight clash should be a surefire contender for Fight of the Night. Luque might not be recognised as a title contender just yet – he’s currently #12 in the rankings – but he’s definitely one of the most exciting fighters in the entire UFC.

Since debuting with the UFC in 2015, he’s gone 11-3, and only one of those wins has gone the distance. That fight was his wild brawl last year with Mike Perry – one of 2019’s most underrated clashes.

‘The Silent Assassin’ is happy to fight basically anywhere. He’s a brutal KO artist standing with excellent technical striking and a granite chin, and on the ground, he’s deadly with submissions, particularly chokes.

In terms of weaknesses, it’s hard to pinpoint any. He was picked off on the feet by Stephen Thompson at UFC 244, but then ‘Wonderboy’ can do that to any fighter in the world, and Luque did at least land some big shots. And there’s certainly no shame in losing to Leon Edwards these days.

Luque is perhaps not the best athlete in the UFC, but thus far that hasn’t really mattered, as his toughness and technical skills have always pulled him through.

Brown has been in the UFC for almost as long as his opponent this weekend. He debuted in early 2016 after being discovered on Lookin’ For A Fight, and has since gone 6-3. An incredibly lanky Welterweight who stands at 6’3”, ‘Rude Boy’ has used his physical gifts to the best of his ability for the most part.

On the feet, he uses his long reach – 78” – to abuse his foes from the distance and also from inside the clinch. And while he’s not the greatest grappler in the division, his length means he’s tricky to deal with on the ground. Both Mickey Gall and Warlley Alves – both great grapplers in their own right – simply couldn’t handle him when the fight hit the mat.

However, to me this looks like a horrible fight for the Jamaican. He does have a 2.5” reach advantage, but given Luque did better against ‘Wonderboy’ than many, it’s hard to imagine Brown being able to keep him at the end of his strikes.

Even if he can, Luque’s chin is absolutely ridiculous and he’s probably going to be able to land at least one or two bombs. And while Brown’s own chin has held up well, he has been knocked out before – an odd loss to Niko Price saw him KO’d by hammer fists from the bottom.

On the ground, meanwhile, Brown is tricky but he simply isn’t on the same level as Luque, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt who’s trained with some of the sport’s best grapplers. He might be able to survive for a while on the mat, but there’s very little chance that he’d thrive as he did against Alves and Gall.

Expect this one to be exciting – fights involving Luque always are – but I don’t think it’ll last as long as his war at UFC 249 with Niko Price. I suspect ‘The Silent Assassin’ will hurt Brown standing and then probably finish him off with a choke – giving him his 11th finish in the UFC.

The Pick: Luque via first round submission

#4 UFC Lightweight Division: Lando Vannata vs. Bobby Green

Lando Vannata fought Bobby Green to a draw in 2017 at UFC 216

Rematches in the UFC tend to be reserved for title fights or at least fights between big-name stars. That’s why it’s surprising to see Vannata faced with Green here, as the two fought to a draw at UFC 216 back in 2017.

The fight does at least make sense for the most part. Green is 2-2 in the UFC since then, most recently edging a decision over Clay Guida just over a month ago. Vannata, meanwhile, has gone 2-2-1, getting another rare draw from a fight with Matt Frevola at UFC 230.

Outside of a simple kimura tapout of the overmatched Marcos Mariano at UFC 234, every fight involving these two men in recent months has been extremely close to call. That comes down purely to style.

Green has a tendency to roll with punches and avoid much damage, but he’s also too willing to be lulled into a slow pace, guaranteeing low-output fights and tight scorecards. Vannata is almost purely a counter-striker, and if a fighter doesn’t step right into his wheelhouse, like Green he tends to be involved in low-output affairs.

Their fight at UFC 216 was an interesting one though, and it’s no surprise that it was awarded Fight of the Night. ‘Groovy Lando’ came flying out of the gates and had Green badly hurt with his striking in the opening round. There was perhaps an argument for stopping the fight, but Green survived, only to take an illegal knee.

That was enough for Vannata to be docked a point – and it also allowed ‘King’ to sneak back into the fight, primarily by using his clinch work in the second round and finally by outboxing the tired Vannata in the third. All kinds of scores could’ve been reached, and so to see a split draw – with a 28-28 card offsetting a 29-27 card for each man – was unsurprising.

How much can we take from that fight going into this one? Given both men remain basically the same fighter, quite a bit. And I’m willing to suggest that it might be Green who has the advantage.

After all, while Vannata hurt him badly in the first round and also in the second, he was never quite able to seal the deal. And the shots that had ‘King’ hurt – a wild right to the temple, one of those shots that wrecks the equilibrium, and then a shot directly on the exit from the clinch – were low-percentage strikes.

Green’s success came from his strength in the clinch and his boxing skill – areas that he can probably still use to great effect in this rematch with no real issues. Sure, Vannata may be better prepared for him, but ‘Groovy Lando’ just doesn’t seem to have developed all that much since 2017.

I’m going to go with Green here, in another tight one to call, with the caveat that if Vannata can land a clean shot on him, he could get a finish.

The Pick: Green via split decision

#5 UFC Middleweight Division: Kevin Holland vs. Trevin Giles

Kevin Holland impressed in his most recent UFC appearance

When Holland quickly TKO’d Anthony Hernandez in May at one of the UFC’s Jacksonville shows, it looked like he’d become a sweetheart of the COVID-19 era. Just 14 days after that win, he decided to step up and take another late-notice UFC fight – only to be forced out with an injury.

‘Trailblazer’ returns here, hoping that the momentum he had following that Hernandez win hasn’t evaporated in the months that have followed. However, he’s not faced with an easy opponent by any means, as he's matched with the dangerous Trevin Giles.

Giles, like Holland, is a jack-of-all-trades type with skills in all areas. He came into the UFC at 9-0 with a win over the highly rated Ryan Spann, and two UFC wins quickly made him a prospect to watch. However, a pair of disappointing losses to Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert derailed him before he bounced back at UFC 247 by outpointing James Krause.

Giles is a willing and powerful striker, even if he isn’t the most technical on the feet. His knockout of Antonio Braga Neto was highly impressive. In that sense, he’s very similar to Holland, who’s happy to trade with opponents for the most part and is dangerous if he decides to flurry on his foe.

Where the two men differ for me is on the ground. Giles is a fantastic grappler when he’s in a dominant position. He came close to submitting the tricky Meerschaert at times in fact. But he’s also almost too willing to get into extended scrambles, and that’s where he got caught by Meerschaert and Cummings – and also found himself in trouble against Krause.

Holland is more straightforward on the ground, but he’s got the skills to submit opponents, so could he take advantage of a mistake from the wilder Giles? It’s definitely possible. But there’s also the chance that Giles manages to get hold of him and locks up a submission of his own.

This might be the trickiest fight on the entire card to pick as both men are so closely matched. I think Giles has more potential in terms of reaching the top of the UFC, but Holland’s experience, size and all-round skills might allow him to get the job done here. This could go either way.

The Pick: Holland via split decision

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Exciting Bantamweight Jonathan Martinez will look for his third UFC win this weekend

All six of this weekend’s UFC prelims will be shown on the ESPN+ streaming service. At the top of this portion of the card is a Bantamweight clash between Frankie Saenz and Jonathan Martinez.

A wrestler by trade, Saenz actually found himself in the top ten in the UFC’s 135lbs back in 2015 when he upset Iuri Alcantara. However, that win was caused primarily by Alcantara’s lack of takedown defense, and since then Saenz has gone 3-4, struggling against higher-level opponents.

Martinez, meanwhile, impressed in losing to Andre Soukhamthath in his UFC debut. His raw energy and aggression made him a man to watch and he looked good in two wins that followed, but was beaten by Andre Ewell in his last outing.

I like Martinez in this one. Saenz is likely tough enough to last the distance, but I just don’t think he’s offensively good enough to pick up enough points to win this fight, particularly if he can’t land takedowns. Martinez by decision is my pick.

In a Light-Heavyweight bout, UFC veteran Ed Herman faces Gerald Meerschaert, who’s moving up from 185lbs for the first time. A former Middleweight himself, Herman isn’t the biggest 205lber but his insane levels of experience – he’s been in the UFC since 2006 – make him a tricky out for anyone. His last win in particular was impressive, as he outworked Khadis Ibragimov, using his aggression against him.

Meerschaert is probably the better technical fighter at this stage, but I’m not sure that I like his chances here. He’s slick and has dangerous finishing ability, but Herman is so tough and so experienced that it’ll be hard for ‘GM3’ to put him in a bad position. I like Herman to grind out a decision.

At Bantamweight, Ray Borg faces newcomer Nathan Maness. This is an interesting fight, as Borg – a former UFC title challenger at Flyweight – is a truly fantastic talent, but questions still abound over whether he’s big enough at 135lbs.

It’s hard to pick against him here, though, as Maness is simply unproven at this level. He appears to be a dangerous striker with a lot of finishes, but can he stop Borg’s takedown? That might be doubtful, and if that’s the case, I expect Borg to outgrapple him, picking up either a decision or a late submission.

In a Middleweight bout, Eric Spicely takes on Markus Perez. Spicely is an interesting case in that he’s had plenty of success in his MMA career – he’s 12-5 and has 2 UFC wins to his name, including a tapout of Thiago Santos – despite being a lesser athlete. He’s slick on the ground and knows how to finish, but doesn’t have powerful takedowns and doesn’t really hit that hard.

Perez, on the other hand, is a tremendous athlete. He’s explosive, has KO power and can finish opponents on the mat, but he’s flattered to deceive thus far into his UFC tenure. The problem for him seems to be that he fights in spits and spats, slowing down at points and letting fights run away from him.

This fight though looks favourable in my opinion. Spicely isn’t going to be able to dummy him on the ground, and ‘Zebrinha’ remains hittable standing and even at 185lbs, he isn’t that quick. I like Perez by TKO in this one.

In a Featherweight clash, newcomer Timur Valiev faces Jamall Emmers. Emmers is 0-1 in the UFC thus far, but he’s an A+ athlete whose only losses have come to tough opponents, and he also took Giga Chikadze the distance in his UFC debut.

Valiev, meanwhile, is yet another talent to come from Dagestan. Like most of the fighters from that region of Russia, he appears to be a tremendous grappler, a willing striker and a very tough guy. He’s also got experience in the PFL promotion, which should bode well for him here. Emmers might surprise him with his athleticism but I think Valiev is going to win here, probably by decision.

Finally, in a Bantamweight fight, Chris Gutierrez faces UFC newcomer Cody Durden. A talented fighter, Guiterrez is 3-1 in the UFC thus far, most recently taking out Vince Morales in May with leg kicks. At 15-4-1 he’s highly experienced, and has good skills in all areas.

Given Durden is making his UFC debut and literally only took the fight today, it’s probably fair to favour Gutierrez here. It’s not a lock by any means as Durden is on a 7-fight win streak, but he hasn’t fought anyone on the UFC level yet and this is a bad circumstance to make your UFC debut. I’ll take Gutierrez via decision.