UFC Fight Night 173: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan - Predictions and Picks

#3 UFC Welterweight Division: Vicente Luque vs. Randy Brown

Vicente Luque is one of the UFC's most exciting fighters

This Welterweight clash should be a surefire contender for Fight of the Night. Luque might not be recognised as a title contender just yet – he’s currently #12 in the rankings – but he’s definitely one of the most exciting fighters in the entire UFC.

Since debuting with the UFC in 2015, he’s gone 11-3, and only one of those wins has gone the distance. That fight was his wild brawl last year with Mike Perry – one of 2019’s most underrated clashes.

‘The Silent Assassin’ is happy to fight basically anywhere. He’s a brutal KO artist standing with excellent technical striking and a granite chin, and on the ground, he’s deadly with submissions, particularly chokes.

In terms of weaknesses, it’s hard to pinpoint any. He was picked off on the feet by Stephen Thompson at UFC 244, but then ‘Wonderboy’ can do that to any fighter in the world, and Luque did at least land some big shots. And there’s certainly no shame in losing to Leon Edwards these days.

Luque is perhaps not the best athlete in the UFC, but thus far that hasn’t really mattered, as his toughness and technical skills have always pulled him through.

Brown has been in the UFC for almost as long as his opponent this weekend. He debuted in early 2016 after being discovered on Lookin’ For A Fight, and has since gone 6-3. An incredibly lanky Welterweight who stands at 6’3”, ‘Rude Boy’ has used his physical gifts to the best of his ability for the most part.

On the feet, he uses his long reach – 78” – to abuse his foes from the distance and also from inside the clinch. And while he’s not the greatest grappler in the division, his length means he’s tricky to deal with on the ground. Both Mickey Gall and Warlley Alves – both great grapplers in their own right – simply couldn’t handle him when the fight hit the mat.

However, to me this looks like a horrible fight for the Jamaican. He does have a 2.5” reach advantage, but given Luque did better against ‘Wonderboy’ than many, it’s hard to imagine Brown being able to keep him at the end of his strikes.

Even if he can, Luque’s chin is absolutely ridiculous and he’s probably going to be able to land at least one or two bombs. And while Brown’s own chin has held up well, he has been knocked out before – an odd loss to Niko Price saw him KO’d by hammer fists from the bottom.

On the ground, meanwhile, Brown is tricky but he simply isn’t on the same level as Luque, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt who’s trained with some of the sport’s best grapplers. He might be able to survive for a while on the mat, but there’s very little chance that he’d thrive as he did against Alves and Gall.

Expect this one to be exciting – fights involving Luque always are – but I don’t think it’ll last as long as his war at UFC 249 with Niko Price. I suspect ‘The Silent Assassin’ will hurt Brown standing and then probably finish him off with a choke – giving him his 11th finish in the UFC.

The Pick: Luque via first round submission