UFC Fight Night 173: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan - Predictions and Picks

#4 UFC Lightweight Division: Lando Vannata vs. Bobby Green

Lando Vannata fought Bobby Green to a draw in 2017 at UFC 216

Rematches in the UFC tend to be reserved for title fights or at least fights between big-name stars. That’s why it’s surprising to see Vannata faced with Green here, as the two fought to a draw at UFC 216 back in 2017.

The fight does at least make sense for the most part. Green is 2-2 in the UFC since then, most recently edging a decision over Clay Guida just over a month ago. Vannata, meanwhile, has gone 2-2-1, getting another rare draw from a fight with Matt Frevola at UFC 230.

Outside of a simple kimura tapout of the overmatched Marcos Mariano at UFC 234, every fight involving these two men in recent months has been extremely close to call. That comes down purely to style.

Green has a tendency to roll with punches and avoid much damage, but he’s also too willing to be lulled into a slow pace, guaranteeing low-output fights and tight scorecards. Vannata is almost purely a counter-striker, and if a fighter doesn’t step right into his wheelhouse, like Green he tends to be involved in low-output affairs.

Their fight at UFC 216 was an interesting one though, and it’s no surprise that it was awarded Fight of the Night. ‘Groovy Lando’ came flying out of the gates and had Green badly hurt with his striking in the opening round. There was perhaps an argument for stopping the fight, but Green survived, only to take an illegal knee.

That was enough for Vannata to be docked a point – and it also allowed ‘King’ to sneak back into the fight, primarily by using his clinch work in the second round and finally by outboxing the tired Vannata in the third. All kinds of scores could’ve been reached, and so to see a split draw – with a 28-28 card offsetting a 29-27 card for each man – was unsurprising.

How much can we take from that fight going into this one? Given both men remain basically the same fighter, quite a bit. And I’m willing to suggest that it might be Green who has the advantage.

After all, while Vannata hurt him badly in the first round and also in the second, he was never quite able to seal the deal. And the shots that had ‘King’ hurt – a wild right to the temple, one of those shots that wrecks the equilibrium, and then a shot directly on the exit from the clinch – were low-percentage strikes.

Green’s success came from his strength in the clinch and his boxing skill – areas that he can probably still use to great effect in this rematch with no real issues. Sure, Vannata may be better prepared for him, but ‘Groovy Lando’ just doesn’t seem to have developed all that much since 2017.

I’m going to go with Green here, in another tight one to call, with the caveat that if Vannata can land a clean shot on him, he could get a finish.

The Pick: Green via split decision