UFC Fight Night 173: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan - Predictions and Picks

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Exciting Bantamweight Jonathan Martinez will look for his third UFC win this weekend

All six of this weekend’s UFC prelims will be shown on the ESPN+ streaming service. At the top of this portion of the card is a Bantamweight clash between Frankie Saenz and Jonathan Martinez.

A wrestler by trade, Saenz actually found himself in the top ten in the UFC’s 135lbs back in 2015 when he upset Iuri Alcantara. However, that win was caused primarily by Alcantara’s lack of takedown defense, and since then Saenz has gone 3-4, struggling against higher-level opponents.

Martinez, meanwhile, impressed in losing to Andre Soukhamthath in his UFC debut. His raw energy and aggression made him a man to watch and he looked good in two wins that followed, but was beaten by Andre Ewell in his last outing.

I like Martinez in this one. Saenz is likely tough enough to last the distance, but I just don’t think he’s offensively good enough to pick up enough points to win this fight, particularly if he can’t land takedowns. Martinez by decision is my pick.

In a Light-Heavyweight bout, UFC veteran Ed Herman faces Gerald Meerschaert, who’s moving up from 185lbs for the first time. A former Middleweight himself, Herman isn’t the biggest 205lber but his insane levels of experience – he’s been in the UFC since 2006 – make him a tricky out for anyone. His last win in particular was impressive, as he outworked Khadis Ibragimov, using his aggression against him.

Meerschaert is probably the better technical fighter at this stage, but I’m not sure that I like his chances here. He’s slick and has dangerous finishing ability, but Herman is so tough and so experienced that it’ll be hard for ‘GM3’ to put him in a bad position. I like Herman to grind out a decision.

At Bantamweight, Ray Borg faces newcomer Nathan Maness. This is an interesting fight, as Borg – a former UFC title challenger at Flyweight – is a truly fantastic talent, but questions still abound over whether he’s big enough at 135lbs.

It’s hard to pick against him here, though, as Maness is simply unproven at this level. He appears to be a dangerous striker with a lot of finishes, but can he stop Borg’s takedown? That might be doubtful, and if that’s the case, I expect Borg to outgrapple him, picking up either a decision or a late submission.

In a Middleweight bout, Eric Spicely takes on Markus Perez. Spicely is an interesting case in that he’s had plenty of success in his MMA career – he’s 12-5 and has 2 UFC wins to his name, including a tapout of Thiago Santos – despite being a lesser athlete. He’s slick on the ground and knows how to finish, but doesn’t have powerful takedowns and doesn’t really hit that hard.

Perez, on the other hand, is a tremendous athlete. He’s explosive, has KO power and can finish opponents on the mat, but he’s flattered to deceive thus far into his UFC tenure. The problem for him seems to be that he fights in spits and spats, slowing down at points and letting fights run away from him.

This fight though looks favourable in my opinion. Spicely isn’t going to be able to dummy him on the ground, and ‘Zebrinha’ remains hittable standing and even at 185lbs, he isn’t that quick. I like Perez by TKO in this one.

In a Featherweight clash, newcomer Timur Valiev faces Jamall Emmers. Emmers is 0-1 in the UFC thus far, but he’s an A+ athlete whose only losses have come to tough opponents, and he also took Giga Chikadze the distance in his UFC debut.

Valiev, meanwhile, is yet another talent to come from Dagestan. Like most of the fighters from that region of Russia, he appears to be a tremendous grappler, a willing striker and a very tough guy. He’s also got experience in the PFL promotion, which should bode well for him here. Emmers might surprise him with his athleticism but I think Valiev is going to win here, probably by decision.

Finally, in a Bantamweight fight, Chris Gutierrez faces UFC newcomer Cody Durden. A talented fighter, Guiterrez is 3-1 in the UFC thus far, most recently taking out Vince Morales in May with leg kicks. At 15-4-1 he’s highly experienced, and has good skills in all areas.

Given Durden is making his UFC debut and literally only took the fight today, it’s probably fair to favour Gutierrez here. It’s not a lock by any means as Durden is on a 7-fight win streak, but he hasn’t fought anyone on the UFC level yet and this is a bad circumstance to make your UFC debut. I’ll take Gutierrez via decision.