UFC Fight Night 174: Lewis vs. Oleinik - Predictions and Picks

#3 UFC Middleweight Division: Darren Stewart vs. Maki Pitolo

Can British striker Darren Stewart pick up another UFC win this weekend?

This fight marks Pitolo’s second UFC bout at Middleweight, following his knockout win over Charles Byrd at UFC 250. Interestingly, it also marks Stewart’s return to the UFC following an odd situation back in March during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Essentially, Stewart was supposed to fight Marvin Vettori at the UFC’s aborted card in London on March 21st. When COVID-19 put an end to that, ‘The Dentist’ ended up facing Bartosz Fabinski in the Cage Warriors promotion, although the fight was billed as a ‘UFC bout’.

Stewart found himself largely out-grappled in that fight, as Fabinski spammed the clinch and takedowns to grind out a decision. It was a gameplan that Stewart had struggled with before – his losses to Edmen Shahbazyan and Francimar Barroso followed the same pattern.

Essentially, ‘The Dentist’ is a heavy-handed striker, but if an opponent can grind him down using wrestling, he’s definitely beatable. So will Pitolo follow the blueprint to pick up his second UFC win on the bounce?

Judging by his previous, that’s unlikely. ‘Coconut Bombz’, like Stewart, is largely a striker. He loves to throw heavy shots from close range, has no fear of trading punches, and is adept at digging to the body rather than simply head-hunting.

If these two fighters get into a wild shootout, then, in all honesty, it could be either man’s fight. Pitolo will likely have a speed advantage, but that could be offset by the fact that Stewart is probably going to be the bigger man. His pre-UFC fights came largely at 205lbs, while Pitolo only moved to 185lbs for the first time in June.

Overall though, I’m leaning towards Stewart. His losses have all seen him out-grappled, but I’m not sure that Pitolo is the man to do that. Sure, he slammed Byrd in that fight, but in the fight prior to that one, Callan Potter edged him out largely by out-grappling him in the third round.

‘Coconut Bombz’ had been ahead in that fight, but when Potter survived his initial onslaught, the Hawaiian quickly tired out – allowing Potter to take over. Given that Stewart simply isn’t the kind of guy to wilt in the face of a lot of striking pressure – he’s never been stopped by strikes – I’m not sure if there’s a path for Pitolo to win.

It’s more likely that after a trade, Stewart will look to use his own kryptonite against Pitolo. ‘The Dentist’ has sneakily decent takedowns in his arsenal for someone who’s largely a poor defensive wrestler. If he can take Pitolo down as Potter did, then it probably spells trouble for the Hawaiian, especially given the size and power of ‘The Dentist’.

It might not be pretty, but I expect Stewart to beat Pitolo up on the ground for a decision here.

The Pick: Stewart via unanimous decision