UFC Fight Night 174: Lewis vs. Oleinik - Predictions and Picks

#5 UFC Lightweight Division: Beneil Dariush vs. Scott Holtzman

Beneil Dariush is currently on a 4-fight winning streak in the UFC

This fight to me is possibly the strangest on this card. Both men are on winning runs – Dariush has won his last four, while Holtzman is 5-1 in his last six. However, there’s a lot of difference in their strength of competition. It feels to me like Dariush should be fighting someone a little higher on the ladder. He’s still ranked at #14 in the UFC rankings, after all.

A dangerous fighter in all areas, Dariush has one weakness that’s kept him from becoming a legitimate title contender. That’s the fact that he simply isn’t the best athlete, meaning he’s often at a disadvantage when it comes to speed and raw power.

That weakness was largely to blame for his losses to Edson Barboza and Alexander Hernandez, who both knocked him out. Outside of that though, he’s been pretty amazing. A genuinely world-class grappler, he’s also a highly underrated striker. He can be hurt standing – both Drakkar Klose and Drew Dober had him in trouble – but his chin is usually strong enough for him to survive.

Once he’s got an opponent down, meanwhile, he’s very difficult to stop. Eight of his 18 wins – including five in the UFC – have come by submission. And his 2019 tap-out of Drew Dober at UFC Fight Night 146 now seems even more impressive given what Dober has gone onto achieve since.

Holtzman, meanwhile, has been in the UFC since 2015 but has never really made any waves. His record is solid enough – 7-3 – but only two of his wins have come via stoppage.

Perhaps his most memorable appearance came last year in his brawl with Dong Hyun Ma. That fight saw both men throw caution to the wind and exchange bombs until Ma’s swollen eye caused a doctor’s stoppage.

‘Hot Sauce’ has decent skills in all areas, but he doesn’t really stand out in any particular one. His wrestling is solid, he’s a good striker, and he’s never been stopped. However, the only fighters he’s faced near to the level of Dariush have been Dober and Jim Miller.

The Dober fight was a back-and-forth one back at UFC 195 that saw Holtzman come out on the wrong end of a decision. And of course, it’s worth noting that Dober has improved dramatically since. ‘Hot Sauce’ did defeat Miller, but Miller is also way past his prime.

Given Holtzman has tended to get into extended grappling sequences with all of his UFC opponents, he ought to be worried here. If Dariush can land a takedown on him or keep him on the ground for any period of time, he’s probably going to find himself in trouble.

And even if Holtzman can keep the fight standing, there’s no guarantee he can win. Dariush is slow on the feet but he’s highly technical, has a good chin, and hits very hard. And ‘Hot Sauce’ simply isn’t as explosive as a Barboza or Hernandez.

Overall I feel like Holtzman is probably overmatched here. He’ll put up a good fight, but I suspect this will be the first time he’ll be finished in his UFC career.

The Pick: Dariush via second-round submission