UFC Fight Night 175: Smith vs. Rakic - Predictions and Picks

The UFC is all set to put on another Fight Night show this weekend in Las Vegas, and right now at least, it looks like a pretty solid card on paper.

I use the words “right now” because it feels like every single UFC card in the past few weeks has had a bunch of last-minute changes and cancelations. Obviously, it’s not the UFC’s fault in the COVID-19 era, but it’s still a bit frustrating.

Case in point – one of the fights pegged for the main card of this show was a Featherweight bout between Ricardo Lamas and Ryan Hall. It’s now been announced by the UFC that Hall is out due to undisclosed reasons.

As of the time of writing, the UFC have found a replacement for him – but in all honesty, it probably won’t be the last change to this show.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 175: Smith vs. Rakic.

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#1 UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Anthony Smith will be looking to bounce back from his May loss to Glover Teixeira

In all honesty, it’s a huge surprise to see Anthony Smith fighting again this year. ‘Lionheart’ was last seen in May – in the main event of the UFC’s second show during the COVID-19 pandemic – and to say his fight with Glover Teixeira didn’t go to plan would be an understatement.

Smith actually did really well in the early going, taking the fight to Teixeira and pushing an absolutely torrid pace. However, when he couldn’t put the Brazilian away, he slowed down dramatically. And from there, he went onto take one of the worst – and most extended – beatings in UFC history.

Sure, Smith lived up to his ‘Lionheart’ nickname and was still swinging strikes back even when he was badly hurt. But the truth is that between the referee and Smith’s corner, someone made a horrible mistake. There’s just no way the fight should’ve gone past the third round, let alone into the fifth.

That means that regardless of his past accomplishments in the UFC – his big wins over Alexander Gustafsson, Volkan Oezdemir, and Shogun Rua – you have to question exactly what he can be bringing into this fight.

Is three months really a long enough time to have recovered from a beating that saw him tell his corner that his teeth were falling out? I’m honestly not too sure. Smith is only 32 years old, but he’s been around for a long time. He debuted in MMA back in 2008 and his current UFC run is his second with the promotion. So it could well be that we’re already seeing him on his way down the ladder.

If that’s the case, then this is a huge opportunity for Rakic. The Austrian fighter – 12-2 in MMA, 4-1 in the UFC – is probably at his athletic peak at 28 years old. His wins over Devin Clark and Jimi Manuwa were incredible. And although he lost to Volkan Oezdemir in his last UFC outing, there were many people – myself included – who thought he deserved the nod.

Regardless, it was a close decision that told observers plenty about Rakic. He’d basically made his name in destroying his opponents and while he wasn’t able to do that to Oezdemir, he was never badly hurt - despite taking serious damage to his leg. And he showed he could take as much punishment as he could dole out.

If anything, the Austrian’s performance was the equal of Dominick Reyes’ against Oezdemir. And for Reyes, it was enough to put him one step away from a UFC title shot.

If Rakic could take out Smith in impressive fashion then, he’d probably be the top contender to whoever wins the upcoming Reyes/Jan Blachowicz fight to decide the new UFC Light Heavyweight champion.

So can he do it? For me, it’s definitely possible. Firstly, it’s unlikely that Smith is going to be able to abuse Rakic from distance given he’s at a two-inch reach disadvantage. Sure, ‘Lionheart’ often lands his best strikes from close range. But it’s going to be very dangerous for him to attempt to walk the Austrian down to land his big shots from inside.

Rakic did struggle somewhat when Oezdemir walked him down, and it’s true that Smith looked excellent in the early going when he was walking Teixeira down. However, Glover is a much more plodding fighter than Rakic. And based on his defense and durability against Volkan, I find it hard to imagine that Smith is going to be able to TKO him by simply pushing forward throwing bombs.

Add in the fact that Smith tired badly in his attempts to take out Teixeira – a much more shopworn fighter than Rakic – and is coming back from what was a horrendous beating very quickly – and I worry for him in this fight.

I’d expect violence early as Smith will look to take Rakic out in the opening round. But assuming the Austrian can weather the storm, I think he can turn the tables on ‘Lionheart’. I’ve underestimated Smith in the UFC in the past, but I just worry about him coming back this quickly against such a dangerous foe.

The Pick: Rakic via third-round TKO

#2 UFC Welterweight Division: Robbie Lawler vs. Neil Magny

Robbie Lawler has not won a UFC fight since his 2017 victory over Donald Cerrone

Sometimes late changes to a UFC card are somewhat of a bonus, and this is almost certainly one of those occasions. Magny – who has looked great since his return to the UFC from a USADA suspension earlier in 2020 – was set to take on the surging, but largely unheralded Geoff Neal here.

However, Neal was forced out of the fight earlier this month due to a nasty case of pneumonia. And somehow, the UFC have managed to plug former Welterweight champ, Robbie Lawler, into the gap.

Sure, ‘Ruthless Robbie’ is likely nearing the end of his UFC career now. He’s 38 years old, hasn’t fought in over a year, and hasn’t actually won a fight since 2017. However, he’s still a pretty big star, and he’s still one of the most exciting – and accomplished – Welterweights in UFC history.

The big question here for me is exactly how much Lawler has left in the tank. For all of the strides he’s made since his pretty underwhelming TUF run in 2012, Magny still has a pretty simple problem when it comes to climbing to the very top of the UFC.

Essentially, he remains a jack-of-all-trades, which also means that he’s a master of none. That might seem unfair – his lanky frame, complete with an 80” reach, makes him a very tricky striker to fight against. And he’s definitely no slouch on the ground either. He’s also got one of the best gas tanks in the Welterweight division.

However, against more specialist fighters, he’s always struggled, and there’s no real evidence to suggest that’s changed since his return this year. Sure, he looked fantastic against both Li Jingliang and Anthony Rocco Martin, but both men – like Magny – are jack-of-all-trades types.

When he fought Santiago Ponzinibbio in 2018 on the other hand, he looked thoroughly outgunned. The Argentine kicked his legs to pieces and used those kicks to land his heavier punches en route to a fourth-round knockout. And that penchant for struggling to absorb strikes also led to his loss to Lorenz Larkin in 2016.

Lawler is, of course, one of the greatest strikers in the history of the UFC’s Welterweight division. Capable of knocking an opponent out with practically any kind of strike, in his prime ‘Ruthless Robbie’ would’ve been more than capable of the kind of performance that Ponzinibbio produced to beat Magny. If anything, he could probably have taken Magny out even quicker.

However, that prime now seems a long time ago. Admittedly, a knee injury may have contributed. But he looked like a walking target in his 2017 loss to Rafael Dos Anjos. And while he could’ve beaten Ben Askren with some slightly different officiating, his showing against Colby Covington last summer in a UFC title eliminator was nothing short of awful.

Simply put, he let Covington overwhelm him with punches, never really opened up in the way that fans might’ve expected him to, and overall looked gunshy. Whether that’s because Covington’s pace was too much for him or whether he’s simply not as offensively effective any more is hard to say. But neither bodes well for him in this fight.

Magny doesn’t offer the wrestling threat that Covington did, but he’s more than capable of pushing a ridiculous pace against Lawler and attempting to wilt him as ‘Chaos’ did. It’s a risky strategy because – particularly in the early going – ‘Ruthless Robbie’ is extremely dangerous and can probably still knock Magny out.

However, if he can avoid that big shot, I think ‘The Haitian Sensation’ has enough about him to be able to wear the former UFC champion down with volume. If he can do that – particularly if he’s able to mix in some takedowns – then he can win this fight.

A Magny decision win may well tell us more about where Lawler is in 2020 than how good Magny is. But I’m just not convinced ‘Ruthless Robbie’ has enough in the tank anymore to deal with an opponent as skilled and who possesses such a deep gas tank.

The Pick: Magny via unanimous decision

#3 UFC Flyweight Division: Alexa Grasso vs. Ji Yeon Kim

The popular Alexa Grasso is moving to 125lbs for the first time in her UFC career this weekend

Given the overall dearth in talent in the UFC women’s 125lbs division, this fight could well be interesting in terms of the title picture. South Korea’s Kim isn’t quite a contender just yet – she’s 3-2 in the UFC – but she’s clearly a tough fighter with plenty of skills.

Grasso, on the other hand, is moving up to the Flyweight division after a pretty successful run at 115lbs. 11-3 overall, she’s beaten veterans like Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Randa Markos, and Heather Clark in the UFC, with her only losses coming to Felice Herrig, Tatiana Suarez and Carla Esparza.

Of those losses, only Suarez really whitewashed her. Herrig simply edged her out in all areas using her superior experience, while the decision in the Esparza fight could well have gone either way. Overall, Grasso is an extremely accomplished striker – particularly with her boxing – and while her ground game is still a work in progress, it’s improving all the time.

Despite winning her last fight by TKO, from what I’ve seen of her previously, Kim will probably want to take this one to the ground. Her last loss saw her thoroughly picked apart by Antonina Shevchenko, she struggled to beat the much smaller Justine Kish in a striking battle, and she also had issues with Lucie Pudilova which led to her other UFC loss.

However, will she be able to resist a striking battle with the Mexican? I’m not so sure. And if she does decide to stand with Grasso, I think she’ll be in trouble. Sure, she should have a size advantage – she’s missed the 125lbs weight limit twice in her UFC career. But she’s not a huge specimen and her height advantage isn’t that big – just 2”.

And in terms of her technique, Grasso will probably be the best pure striker Kim has ever faced in the UFC. She knows how to sit behind a jab and throw clean combinations, her footwork is excellent, and she’s pretty solid in the clinch too. And it’s not like she’s terrible on the ground either – she was able to fend off a top grappler in Esparza even if she couldn’t always prevent the takedown.

Assuming Kim can’t simply use her size to smother Grasso, I think she’s outgunned here. For me, Grasso is the slightly better fighter in all areas. And if she can take to her new weight properly, then she could be a very real threat to UFC Flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko at some point in the future.

The Pick: Grasso via unanimous decision

#4 UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba

Magomed Ankalaev's first fight with Ion Cutelaba was one of the most controversial of 2020

This marks the fourth time the UFC have attempted to book this intriguing Light Heavyweight clash in 2020. And one can only hope that the two actually make it into the Octagon this time.

After initially facing off at UFC Fight Night 169 back in February in a fight that ended in controversy – more on that later. The promotion attempted to book a rematch at UFC 249, only to see COVID-19 force the cancelation of that show.

The fight was then re-booked for UFC 252 two weeks ago, only for Cutelaba to test positive for COVID-19. Whether he’s had enough time to recover from the virus is anyone’s guess. But the signs suggest he’s fine as the UFC have simply shifted the fight onto this card.

So who will come out on top? Well, going into that initial fight in February, I felt like the advantage lay with Ankalaev. I suspected that the stoic Dagestani would be able to absorb some early striking punishment from Cutelaba, wait for him to slow down slightly, and then take over with his powerful wrestling.

As it happened though, Ankalaev didn’t even need to use his wrestling. Rather than ‘The Hulk’ overwhelming him with aggression, it was actually Ankalaev who looked to have his opponent outgunned on the feet.

The Dagestani landed some huge, sharp strikes, and while referee Kevin MacDonald had a stinker by stopping the fight far too early, the truth is that Cutelaba was definitely in trouble. Could he have survived? Well, yes, but for how much longer is very much in question.

Overall, what we did learn is that Ankalaev isn’t the kind of man to wilt under the pressure that Cutelaba can definitely bring. And with that knowledge, I find it hard to pick ‘The Hulk’ here, as every one of his UFC wins has come against an opponent he was able to overwhelm with his aggression.

Ankalaev may well have to use that stellar grappling game in this one, but in all honesty, it shouldn’t matter. Cutelaba is always dangerous but I just don’t think he’s got the skills required to defeat Ankalaev, who may well be the best prospect in the UFC at 205lbs.

In the end, I’m making the same prediction that I made for this fight at UFC 252 – Ankalaev by decision.

The Pick: Ankalaev via unanimous decision

#5 UFC Featherweight Division: Ricardo Lamas vs. Bill Algeo

Former UFC title challenger Ricardo Lamas now faces newcomer Bill Algeo on late notice this weekend

This fight obviously should’ve seen former title contender Lamas taking on grappling expert Ryan Hall. But ‘The Wizard’ – who would’ve been looking for his fifth UFC win in a row – was forced out last week. And for a while, it looked like Lamas would probably be forced off the card too due to a lack of an opponent.

However, at the time of writing, debutant Bill Algeo has now stepped in to take the fight, and, well, it’s difficult to see the newcomer having success based on the footage I’ve seen of him. ‘Senor Perfecto’ has a strong record of 13-4 and appears to be well-rounded, having plenty of finishes by submission and KO on his ledger.

However, it’s also fair to say that as his competition has gotten stiffer, Algeo hasn’t picked up quite so many finishes. It’s also notable that the UFC-level opponents he’s faced – Shane Burgos, Jared Gordon, Brendan Loughnane – are also the opponents that have defeated him.

The Loughnane fight from Dana White’s Contender Series is particularly worrying when you consider exactly how the Brit defeated Algeo. An excellent grappler and clinch fighter, Loughnane was able to basically grind ‘Senor Perfecto’ down from the clinch and on the ground, denying him a spot in the UFC.

Lamas might be past his prime at this stage – he’s suffered three losses in his last four fights – but he’s still more than capable when it comes to grinding a foe down. ‘The Bully’ isn’t the most natural striker, but he hits hard enough, is devastating from top position, and has a nice array of submissions too.

Add in the fact that he’s got far more experience than Algeo – he’s been in the UFC since 2011 – and has actually prepared in a full fight camp as opposed to having a week’s notice, and it’s hard to see the UFC newcomer having success here.

Algeo probably has a puncher’s chance based on Lamas being out of action for over a year and coming off a bad KO. But that’s all I’m giving him here. I think Lamas will comfortably outwork him for a decision – assuming he doesn’t take the newcomer lightly of course.

The Pick: Lamas via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card

Striker Maki Pitolo is set to headline this weekend's prelims

This weekend’s prelims will all be shown on ESPN+, and at the top of the card sits a Welterweight bout between Maki Pitolo and newcomer Impa Kasanganay. This fight was actually supposed to take place on last week’s UFC card but was moved for undisclosed reasons.

Last week, I took Kasanganay to win, feeling that he had the grappling chops to outwrestle Pitolo while also having the willingness to trade off with him standing. If he can avoid ‘Coconut Bombz’ KO power, then I’m still happy to take the UFC newcomer to win a decision.

In a Strawweight fight, Mallory Martin faces Hannah Cifers. This will be Cifers’ fourth fight of 2020, and worryingly she’s gone 0-3 thus far, losing her last two fights via submission. Martin has less UFC experience and lost her debut to Virna Jandiroba. But based on her recent form, there’s no shame in that. Based on her recent form it’s just hard to see Cifers finding a way to victory here, so I’m taking Martin via decision.

At Middleweight, Italy’s Alessio Di Chirico faces Zak Cummings. A grinder by nature, Cummings struggles against better athletes. But he’s tough enough to hang in with anyone and has dangerous finishing skills given the chance.

Di Chirico, on the other hand, is on a two-fight skid in the UFC. But before that, he was showing plenty of potential and is exactly the kind of athlete that could give Cummings problems. It’s hard to count Cummings out of this one. But a lot of his wins have come against smaller foes and I don’t think that’ll be the case here. I think Di Chirico will outwork him for a decision.

In a Featherweight clash, Alex Caceres faces Giga Chikadze. Like a couple of the other fights on this card, this one was scheduled to take place a couple of weeks ago on a different UFC show but ended up being moved here. It sounds like a fun fight on paper too, as both men usually show a lot of aggression.

I expect Chikadze to be more of the aggressor here. He’s a whirlwind of strikes mixed in with takedowns – and I think that pace will allow him to overwhelm ‘Bruce Leeroy’. He’ll need to be careful as Caceres is a dangerous finisher when given the opportunity, but I think Chikadze will wilt him and take a decision.

In the Flyweight division, Polyana Viana takes on Emily Whitmire. These two look quite well-matched and given they both prefer to grapple, we could be in for a fun ground battle with plenty of scrambles.

Viana has the more extensive record – she’s 10-4 – but Whitmire has almost certainly beaten the better opponents, with UFC wins over Jamie Moyle and Aleksandra Albu to her name. I think this one should be close, but I’m going to take Whitmire to win by submission.

At Welterweight, Sean Brady faces Christian Aguilera. Brady is a big-time prospect in this division, 12-0 including two wins in the UFC over veterans Court McGee and Ismail Naurdiev. An excellent fighter in all areas, Brady’s striking has looked powerful and we’ve also seen him mix in his wrestling to great effect.

Aguilera, meanwhile, debuted in the UFC in June on very late notice, defeating Anthony Ivy by TKO. This promises to be a much trickier fight for ‘The Beast’ though, as Brady is very much battle-tested and appears to be a better fighter overall. I expect Aguilera to bring the aggression again, but I think Brady’s got enough in his arsenal to take it and put his opponent away by TKO.

Finally, in the Middleweight division, former Light Heavyweight Saparbek Safarov goes up against Julian Marquez. Safarov is a tough fighter but his issue in the UFC has always been his lack of sheer athleticism, something that caught up with him against explosive opponents like Rodolfo Vieira and Tyson Pedro.

Marquez isn’t as great an athlete as those two, but he’s extremely tough, appears to be faster than Safarov, and hits very hard. The issue for him is that he hasn’t fought in the UFC since the summer of 2018, left on the shelf after tearing his lat. Assuming he’s fully recovered though, I think his aggression and speed will be enough here to win by TKO.