UFC Fight Night 175: Smith vs. Rakic - Predictions and Picks

#2 UFC Welterweight Division: Robbie Lawler vs. Neil Magny

Robbie Lawler has not won a UFC fight since his 2017 victory over Donald Cerrone

Sometimes late changes to a UFC card are somewhat of a bonus, and this is almost certainly one of those occasions. Magny – who has looked great since his return to the UFC from a USADA suspension earlier in 2020 – was set to take on the surging, but largely unheralded Geoff Neal here.

However, Neal was forced out of the fight earlier this month due to a nasty case of pneumonia. And somehow, the UFC have managed to plug former Welterweight champ, Robbie Lawler, into the gap.

Sure, ‘Ruthless Robbie’ is likely nearing the end of his UFC career now. He’s 38 years old, hasn’t fought in over a year, and hasn’t actually won a fight since 2017. However, he’s still a pretty big star, and he’s still one of the most exciting – and accomplished – Welterweights in UFC history.

The big question here for me is exactly how much Lawler has left in the tank. For all of the strides he’s made since his pretty underwhelming TUF run in 2012, Magny still has a pretty simple problem when it comes to climbing to the very top of the UFC.

Essentially, he remains a jack-of-all-trades, which also means that he’s a master of none. That might seem unfair – his lanky frame, complete with an 80” reach, makes him a very tricky striker to fight against. And he’s definitely no slouch on the ground either. He’s also got one of the best gas tanks in the Welterweight division.

However, against more specialist fighters, he’s always struggled, and there’s no real evidence to suggest that’s changed since his return this year. Sure, he looked fantastic against both Li Jingliang and Anthony Rocco Martin, but both men – like Magny – are jack-of-all-trades types.

When he fought Santiago Ponzinibbio in 2018 on the other hand, he looked thoroughly outgunned. The Argentine kicked his legs to pieces and used those kicks to land his heavier punches en route to a fourth-round knockout. And that penchant for struggling to absorb strikes also led to his loss to Lorenz Larkin in 2016.

Lawler is, of course, one of the greatest strikers in the history of the UFC’s Welterweight division. Capable of knocking an opponent out with practically any kind of strike, in his prime ‘Ruthless Robbie’ would’ve been more than capable of the kind of performance that Ponzinibbio produced to beat Magny. If anything, he could probably have taken Magny out even quicker.

However, that prime now seems a long time ago. Admittedly, a knee injury may have contributed. But he looked like a walking target in his 2017 loss to Rafael Dos Anjos. And while he could’ve beaten Ben Askren with some slightly different officiating, his showing against Colby Covington last summer in a UFC title eliminator was nothing short of awful.

Simply put, he let Covington overwhelm him with punches, never really opened up in the way that fans might’ve expected him to, and overall looked gunshy. Whether that’s because Covington’s pace was too much for him or whether he’s simply not as offensively effective any more is hard to say. But neither bodes well for him in this fight.

Magny doesn’t offer the wrestling threat that Covington did, but he’s more than capable of pushing a ridiculous pace against Lawler and attempting to wilt him as ‘Chaos’ did. It’s a risky strategy because – particularly in the early going – ‘Ruthless Robbie’ is extremely dangerous and can probably still knock Magny out.

However, if he can avoid that big shot, I think ‘The Haitian Sensation’ has enough about him to be able to wear the former UFC champion down with volume. If he can do that – particularly if he’s able to mix in some takedowns – then he can win this fight.

A Magny decision win may well tell us more about where Lawler is in 2020 than how good Magny is. But I’m just not convinced ‘Ruthless Robbie’ has enough in the tank anymore to deal with an opponent as skilled and who possesses such a deep gas tank.

The Pick: Magny via unanimous decision