UFC Fight Night 176: Overeem vs. Sakai - Predictions and Picks

#5 UFC Lightweight Division: Thiago Moises vs. Jalin Turner

Thiago Moises was impressive in his submission win over UFC veteran Michael Johnson

This clash in the UFC’s Lightweight division looks like a classic clash of styles – the much-tried and tested striker vs. grappler bout.

In this case, Brazil’s Moises is going to want to get this fight to the ground pretty sharpish, while Turner will hope to keep it standing. To be fair, Moises isn’t a bad striker by any means. He earned his UFC contract with a head kick KO on the Brazilian version of Dana White’s Contender Series and actually has 3 knockouts on his ledger.

However, it’s on the ground where he really shines. A legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt fighting out of American Top Team, Moises is a truly brilliant grappler. He showed this most recently against Michael Johnson, submitting the UFC veteran with an Achilles lock despite being pieced up for the first round on the feet.

Turner on the other hand is definitely more of a striker, with 8 of his 9 wins coming by KO. ‘The Tarantula’ came into the UFC under interesting circumstances, taking a fight with the much larger Vicente Luque at Welterweight at UFC 229. He duly lost by KO, but bounced back to defeat Callan Potter by KO at UFC 234.

Since then he’s gone 1-1 – winning his most recent fight again by KO. However, it’s his loss to Matt Frevola at UFC 236 last year that should be ringing some alarm bells.

That fight saw ‘The Steamrolla’ thoroughly outwork Turner on the ground, coming close with numerous submission attempts before taking a clear-cut decision. Frevola is an excellent fighter but the truth is that he isn’t on the same level as Moises when it comes to grappling.

If ‘The Tarantula’ had better takedown defense, I’d probably be willing to give him a chance here, but his wrestling didn’t look great in that fight with Frevola. Even if he’s improved dramatically since, I’m just not sure he has the same levels of speed that allowed Johnson to give Moises so many problems on the feet.

Turner obviously has a puncher’s chance here. He’s athletic, explosive, hits hard and knows how to finish, but I simply feel like the gap between the two men on the ground is far wider than the one on the feet. I expect Moises to pick up his third UFC win here, probably by submission.

The Pick: Moises via second-round submission