UFC Fight Night 177: Waterson vs. Hill - Predictions and Picks

After their most recent event was badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, the UFC will be hoping for some better luck this week.

They’re back in Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night 177: Waterson vs. Hill, and with thirteen fights on tap, there’s plenty of potential for this week to provide us more chaos.

Until then though, it’s time to look at this show, which seems like a mixed bag of some decent fights with little in the way of name value.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 177: Waterson vs. Hill.

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#1 UFC Strawweight Division: Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill

Nicknamed 'The Karate Hottie', Michelle Waterson is one of the UFC's most popular fighters

This clash in the UFC’s Strawweight division wasn’t the initially planned main event for this card. Instead, it’s been elevated into a five-rounder due to the fight between Glover Teixeira and Thiago Santos being scrapped following a positive COVID-19 test for Teixeira.

Will the change from a three-round fight to a five-round one make a big difference? Actually, it’s quite possible. Hill has gone five rounds twice in the past, but never in the UFC before, while Waterson has been involved in two UFC main events, and while only one has gone the distance, she’s far more used to the spotlight than ‘Overkill’.

Overall, judging by the style of both women, you’d have to expect a striking-heavy bout here. Hill is almost a pure kickboxer, and has been ever since she emerged onto the UFC scene back in 2014 as part of TUF 20.

Still very raw at that stage, ‘Overkill’ washed out of the promotion quickly following a pair of losses, but rebounded quickly by winning Invicta’s Strawweight title in 2016. That was enough to earn her a UFC return, and she’s since been one of the 115lbs division’s most reliable action fighters, going 6-6 in the years that have followed.

However, she’s not evolved that heavily if we’re honest. Sure, she’s improved on the ground and has picked up a couple of TKO’s on the ground, and she’s also improved in terms of her takedown defense. But she’s still vulnerable to a fighter willing to work hard in the clinch to get her down, and has a tendency to slow down in the later part of fights.

That’s why I believe Waterson is a pretty bad match for her. ‘The Karate Hottie’ has had her own issues throughout her UFC run – largely with slightly more powerful ground-based fighters capable of grounding her – but only Joanna Jedrzejczyk has really managed to outstrike her standing.

Waterson is also very used to being the smaller fighter in the Octagon, but she’s actually the same height as Hill and is only giving up a single inch in reach. That means that given Waterson’s kickboxing skill, there’s practically no chance that ‘Overkill’ can keep her at the end of her strikes.

Hill could still be in with a chance if Waterson would be willing to actually trade off with her, but that isn’t likely either. ‘The Karate Hottie’ is a highly underrated grappler, with some excellent takedowns from the clinch and a venomous submission game when the fight does hit the mat.

The most likely outcome here then is that Waterson will use her strikes to get inside and clinch with Hill, probably throwing her from there. And once she’s got Hill grounded then I expect that she’s probably got enough skill to take the back, lock in a choke, and finish things from there.

The Pick: Waterson via second-round submission

#2 UFC Lightweight Division: Khama Worthy vs. Ottman Azaitar

Khama Worthy has been a surprising UFC success thus far into his run with the promotion

Every now and then, the UFC stumbles its way into a potential star by plucking a fighter from the regional circuit for a late-notice bout, only for said fighter to turn out to be a killer. Is Khama Worthy about to join that list? Judging on his past showings, there’s every possibility.

‘The Deathstar’ was signed by the UFC last summer as a late-notice replacement for John Makdessi in a fight with prospect Devonte Smith. Nobody really expected him to pull off anything special given Smith had won two UFC fights by KO, but instead, Worthy stunned everyone by outboxing him and finishing him inside a round.

It took Worthy nearly a year to be called back into action, and when he did return it was as an underdog again. Luis Pena appeared to be hitting his stride coming into the bout, but somehow Worthy pulled off the win – incredibly, submitting the grappler with a tight guillotine choke.

Is ‘The Deathstar’ a future UFC title contender? In all honesty probably not, as he’s already 33 years old and has 6 career losses, all by finish, including defeats to fighters who washed out of the UFC. But he’s clearly a very dangerous fighter who could well become a staple on Fight Night cards for a while yet.

This fight should be full of action to say the least. Azaitar – the brother of fellow UFC fighter Abu – is a highly dangerous striker with 9 KO or TKO wins to his name. His UFC debut came last September, when it took him just over three minutes to spark out Teemu Packalen.

Sure, Packalen’s striking defense is lacking to say the least, but Azaitar showed brutal power, a lot of speed, and plenty of precision. That could bode well against Worthy, who did show a penchant for taking a shot to give one back when he fought Smith in his UFC debut.

With that said though, ‘The Deathstar’ did show a good chin. And the fact that he was able to catch a fighter like Pena with a submission shows that he’s much more than the one-dimensional striker his debut suggested. To be fair, ‘The Bulldozer’ does have two submissions to his name too – but none against a grappler as good as Pena.

This one could honestly go either way given the striking talents of both men and the fact that they’re likely to come out to trade, but I’m siding with the more proven UFC talent and the man who appears to have more tools to take the win with.

The Pick: Worthy via second-round TKO

#3 UFC Flyweight Division: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Andrea Lee

Andrea Lee should have an athletic advantage over Roxanne Modafferi this wekeend

As we’ve seen recently – with Jennifer Maia beating Joanne Calderwood to steal away her title shot – the UFC Women’s Flyweight division is perhaps the most wide open in the promotion right now.

Champion Valentina Shevchenko – barring a Maia upset – is arguably the UFC’s most dominant champion, and she’s been highly active too, meaning a fighter can gain a title shot without having to put together a huge winning streak as such.

That means that despite both Lee and Modafferi coming off losses going into this fight, a big win for either could put them just one or two fights away from a crack at Shevchenko. It’s a solid fight with plenty on the line, but who takes it?

It’s pretty clear to anyone who’s followed the two women that Lee is the superior athlete. ‘KGB’ is a highly decorated Muay Thai kickboxer, with plenty of world and regional titles to her name. She’s also skilled on the ground, holding a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt under Relson Gracie, and her cardio has always looked excellent in the UFC.

Lee has lost her last two fights, but both losses should come with an asterisk. UFC 242 saw her edged out by Joanne Calderwood in a fight that went to a split decision and could easily have gone either way. And more recently, she came out on the wrong end of another split decision, this time against Lauren Murphy at UFC 247.

That one was more controversial, as the majority of the MMA media outlets scored it in favour of ‘KGB’, who largely controlled Murphy both standing and when the fight hit the ground.

Of course, the decision would’ve been a moot point had Lee been able to put Murphy away, but that’s probably the lone knock on her. Of her 11 MMA wins, 5 have come by decision and she’s never finished an opponent in the UFC, even the overmatched Veronica Macedo.

Modafferi has also had struggles with finishing opponents. In her 41 professional fights, she’s seen the final buzzer 28 times. Overall she’s got 24 wins to her name – more than Lee has fights – so she’s definitely got the experience advantage in this fight.

However, where ‘The Happy Warrior’ has traditionally struggled has been with better athletes. She’s attempted to close that gap recently, embarking on a hardcore strength and conditioning training regime since her return to the UFC in 2017, and it’s definitely done some good.

She was able to outmuscle and defeat Barb Honchak, Antonina Shevchenko and Maycee Barber – although in the latter fight, Barber badly tore her ACL early on. And her striking has improved too, meaning she actually looks like a competent kickboxer these days.

‘The Happy Warrior’ is still more of a grappling-based fighter though, and overall that’s why I think she’ll struggle here with Lee. Her last fight – coincidentally also against Murphy – saw her perform decently standing, but Murphy completely outpowered her in the clinch and on the ground.

Lee is a massively superior striker than Modafferi, so unless ‘The Happy Warrior’ can put her on her back and work her over as she did to Shevchenko and Honchak, I suspect she’s going to be in trouble. Given Lee’s all-round skills and advantage in athleticism, I just can’t see how she can do that.

With that in mind, I suspect Modafferi’s veteran toughness – and Lee’s lack of finishing skills – will mean this fight goes the distance, but I’m backing ‘KGB’ to pick up her fourth UFC win.

The Pick: Lee via unanimous decision

#4 UFC Light-Heavyweight Division: Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodriguez

Longtime veteran Ed Herman is one of the UFC's most experienced fighters

One of the UFC’s most experienced fighters, Ed Herman has been with the promotion now for over 14 years (yes, it's hard to believe it). Over that time he’s practically seen it all, fighting everyone from Demian Maia and Jake Shields to Alan Belcher and CB Dollaway, and this weekend will mark his 40th professional fight, 24 of which will have been in the UFC.

Despite looking like he’d reached the end of his career in 2018 after he suffered 3 straight losses, ‘Short Fuse’ has actually rebounded recently. Wins over Pat Cummins and Khadis Ibragimov have put him on his first two-fight win streak in the UFC since 2011.

The Ibragimov fight was particularly impressive, as the Russian is a wild, heavy-handed puncher who looks to put his opponents away quickly. Herman used that aggression against Ibragimov, wearing him down in the clinch by leaning on him and then basically beating him up from close range. It was the quintessential veteran performance against a less experienced foe.

Rodriguez is an interesting opponent for Herman for a number of reasons. ‘Slow Mike’ has only won two fights in the UFC, but both opponents – Adam Milstead and Marcin Prachnio – ended up unconscious after they were done.

Basically, Rodriguez is a bread-and-butter MMA striker, using both boxing and Muay Thai skills to attack his opponents. And incredibly he only fought on 07/22, where he knocked out Prachnio with a series of brutal elbows to the temple from the clinch.

Where ‘Slow Mike’ has struggled however is on the ground. Both John Allan and Devin Clark easily controlled him once they took him down – although he did have some good moments against Allan – and that should probably be worrying for him when it comes to facing a grappler as good as Herman.

I can’t see Rodriguez knocking Herman out from range – ‘Short Fuse’ is too savvy for that – and so I can see this fight going one of two ways. The two men will clinch and either Rodriguez will knock Herman out as he did to Prachnio, or Herman will use his skills to wear ‘Slow Mike’ down with shots to the body and head while leaning on him with his grappling skill.

It’s a tough one to call but I’m leaning towards Herman. His UFC experience means he’s fought tons of fighters who are superior to Rodriguez, no offense intended, and despite his advanced age it doesn’t look like Herman is a shot fighter just yet. I’m taking the veteran by decision.

The Pick: Herman via unanimous decision

#5 UFC Featherweight Division: Billy Quarantillo vs. Kyle Nelson

Billy Quarantillo's fight with Spike Carlyle was an instant classic

Based on their previous UFC fights, this Featherweight clash could be a surefire contender for a post-fight bonus award. Nelson is 1-2 in the UFC right now, but all three of his fights have seen violent finishes, while Quarantillo’s last appearance saw him put on an absolute war with the hyper-aggressive Spike Carlyle.

Prior to that, Quarantillo had finished 5 fights in a row. In fact, of his 14 victories, just 4 have gone the distance. A large, rangy 145lber, the Florida native is reckless to a fault, throwing wild strikes and when the fight hits the ground, constantly hunting for submissions.

We learned from the Carlyle fight that he’s insanely tough, too. ‘The Alpha Ginger’ almost put him away on numerous occasions, only for Quarantillo to somehow survive and fight right back, eventually forcing Carlyle to largely gas out and give up a decision.

The TUF veteran took plenty of damage on his feet, but was largely able to outgrapple Carlyle once the action began to slow down slightly in the later rounds. Interestingly too, Quarantillo didn't appear to be on the verge of being finished at any point.

Nelson has only gone the distance 5 times in 16 fights himself, so the likelihood of this one reaching the final buzzer – particularly in the UFC APEX’s small Octagon – seems low.

However, for all of his finishing skills – like Quarantillo, he’s stopped current UFC star Khama Worthy in the past – he also doesn’t appear to possess the durability that his opponent this weekend has. ‘The Monster’ was put away, for instance, by Carlos Diego Ferreira at UFC 231 via punches from half-guard, and he also struggled against the aggressive Matt Sayles on the ground before he was eventually submitted.

There is a chance that Nelson is the more potent offensive fighter and can take out Quarantillo early, but I’m just not convinced personally. If Carlyle’s blitzes of violence couldn’t do it, then I’m just not convinced the Canadian is capable either.

With that in mind, I think this will be a wild fight, but if Nelson can't finish Quarantillo then the likelihood is that he'll slow down. And if he does so, he'll be ripe pickings for Quarantillo to pick up his third UFC win in a row.

The Pick: Quarantillo via second-round TKO

#6 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card

Prospect Roosevelt Roberts could headline this weekend's prelims

As of the time of writing, the UFC has not produced a bout order for Saturday’s prelim card. In fact, not all of the fights are officially confirmed. However, it’s likely that the following will be shown on ESPN+.

A Lightweight clash between Roosevelt Roberts and Matt Frevola seems to be the most likely headliner for these prelims. Both men have shown excellent skills in their prior UFC fights. Roberts largely relies on his length and range to do damage, as he prefers to strike from the outside and hunt for chokes using his long arms in grappling exchanges.

Frevola meanwhile is more of a wildman with skills in all areas, and his fights in the UFC have generally been very entertaining. The issue that ‘The Steamrolla’ has had has been with striking defense. He’s extremely hittable – largely due to his aggression – and that’s what got him KO’d by Polo Reyes in his UFC debut.

This could go either way but I suspect Roberts probably has too much firepower and will be able to use his range to take Frevola out by TKO.

In another Lightweight bout, Frank Camacho takes on Brok Weaver. Given that both men are coming off losses, this could be a loser-leaves-UFC type fight. Weaver was last seen being submitted by Roosevelt Roberts, but also only won his UFC debut by DQ after he was knocked out by an illegal knee.

Camacho, meanwhile, is just 2-5 in the UFC, but has been kept around largely because he puts on wildly entertaining fights. He’s also a potent finisher with heavy punches, as we saw when he knocked out Nick Hein in 2019.

This one is a tough one to pick given both men have similar skills, are equally tough and have a decent level of experience. However, given Weaver’s general lack of finishing skills, I’m leaning towards Camacho being able to put together enough meaningful offense to edge a decision.

The third Lightweight bout on the prelims sees Bobby Green face Alan Patrick. Both of these men are longtime UFC veterans, with Green actually having almost 40 fights to his name. ‘King’ has also been far more active, edging out both Lando Vannata and Clay Guida in 2020 while Patrick hasn’t fought in the UFC since 2018.

I’m taking Green in this one. ‘King’ not only has more experience, but he’s an excellent boxer and wrestler, while Patrick is a stiff striker who prefers to take his foes down. Given I can’t see him managing to grapple Green to the mat, I think we’ll probably see the StrikeForce veteran outbox his Brazilian foe for his third decision win of the year.

In a Bantamweight fight, Sijara Eubanks faces Julia Avila. Eubanks was actually supposed to fight on last week’s UFC card against Karol Rosa, only for the fight to fall apart when Rosa botched her weight cut. A highly skilled grappler, Eubanks might have her hands full here as Avila is a very powerful 135lber who looked impressive in her KO of Gina Mazany in June.

This fight will probably come down to which fighter can control where the fight takes place. If Avila can keep things standing then it should be her fight to lose, but if Eubanks can get her to the ground then she should have the advantage. I’m leaning towards ‘Sarj’ via decision based on the fact that she was already training while Avila has taken the fight on relatively late notice, but it’s tight to call.

At Flyweight, Matt Schnell takes on Tyson Nam. Schnell has been a real surprise hit in the UFC. A former MTV reality star, ‘Danger’ looked likely to wash out of the promotion when he was KO’d in his first two fights, but then reeled off a nice four-fight win streak. However, he was brutally knocked out in his last fight, back in December against high-level contender Alexandre Pantoja.

Nam on the other hand – a true veteran who fought all over the world before arriving in the UFC – recently picked up his first UFC win, a KO of Zarrukh Adashev, in June. For me this should come down to whether Schnell can outwork Nam as Kai Kara-France and Sergio Pettis did. If he can’t really do that then I feel like Nam has enough veteran savvy to land something big and put him away. I’m going with Nam by KO in a tight call.

In a Welterweight bout, Bryan Barberena faces Anthony Ivy. We haven’t seen Barberena since June 2019 when he was TKO’d by Randy Brown – a loss that kind of eliminated his aura of being almost too tough to stop – but he’s still a very difficult opponent for any 170lber.

Ivy is far less proven in the UFC. He came in as a late replacement and was KO’d in less than a minute by Christian Aguilera in his UFC debut. Could he be a talented and dangerous fighter? Perhaps, but I don’t think he’s ready for Barberena, even if ‘Bam Bam’ is coming off a long stretch on the shelf. I’ll take Barberena via decision here.

At Bantamweight, Tagir Ulanbekov faces Bruno Silva. This will be Ulanbekov’s UFC debut and he looks like a highly dangerous fighter. Yet another native of Dagestan, he’s 10-1 in MMA and appears to be a submission expert from what I’ve seen.

Silva meanwhile is a much smaller 135lber who could probably make 125lbs with ease, and I worry for him here against such an accomplished grappler. I’m going with Ulanbekov via submission.

Finally, a Flyweight fight sees Sabina Mazo take on Justine Kish. An accomplished kickboxer, Kish returned this January after a year-long layoff to pick up an impressive win over Lucie Pudilova. Mazo meanwhile has won her past two UFC outings, both by decision.

‘The Colombian Queen’ has less experience than Kish, but I think she’s got enough to edge out the veteran here, as she’s shown excellent skills in her UFC outings while Kish seems to be on the downturn. I’ll take Mazo via decision.