UFC Fight Night 178: Covington vs. Woodley - Predictions and Picks

After a couple of weeks with low-key shows, the UFC presents a genuinely stacked card this weekend. UFC Fight Night 178 not only has a major main event, but there are a number of undercard fights that should pique the interest of fans too.

Basically, this is a pay-per-view level card in all but name.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 178: Covington vs. Woodley.

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#1 UFC Welterweight Division: Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley

After his loss to Gilbert Burns, how much does Tyron Woodley have left in the tank?

To say this clash has been a long time coming would be a major understatement. Former UFC Welterweight champ Woodley was initially expected to defend this title against Covington in a highly personal fight back in 2018. But injuries and difficult negotiations with the UFC meant that the fight never happened.

Woodley instead defended the title against Darren Till, and then fatefully, against Kamaru Usman – who beat him down to dethrone him. Usman would then defend successfully against Covington, knocking him out in the fifth round back in December 2019.

'Chaos' hasn't fought since, while Woodley made a return to the UFC in May, only to lose in an upset to Gilbert Burns. Thankfully though, the rivalry between these two has never fully gone away, meaning that despite 'The Chosen One' falling from grace somewhat, UFC fans will still be looking forward to this one come Saturday.

What it really comes down to is a fight between two excellent wrestlers with very different striking styles. It seems unlikely that either man will truly be able to dominate in the wrestling department - so whoever gets the advantage standing will probably win this fight.

As anyone who's ever seen him fight knows, Woodley is almost purely a counter-striker on the feet. It's why he's been part of some truly awful fights in the UFC – think his clashes with Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia – but has also thrilled with some incredible knockouts.

If a fighter is willing to come at Woodley, there's every chance that he'll catch them with either his left hook or his overhand right to put them out. But if they're more patient, then 'The Chosen One' is more likely to simply circle around with his back to the fence, waiting for an opportunity to strike. Sure, he has powerful leg kicks too, but again, he tends to throw them on the counter.

That's why this fight is interesting. Covington's striking style is literally all about volume. His cardio is second to none in the entire UFC, as he consistently pushes forward, throwing a ridiculous amount of combinations without really slowing down.

The issue he's had has largely been a lack of striking power. He hit both Usman and Robbie Lawler with a ridiculous amount of strikes but never really came close to putting them away. And against Usman, he eventually ended up in a standing shootout that he was largely outgunned in.

That's basically because Covington's striking success relies a lot on him also having the potential to take his opponent down. The likes of Lawler and Rafael Dos Anjos couldn't stop him from grabbing hold of them, and that innate fear of the takedown then led them to be unable to stop his volume on the feet.

Against Woodley, though, who Covington theoretically shouldn't be able to out-grapple easily? Then things become interesting. If 'Chaos' can't threaten with his takedown and he tries to throw volume at Woodley, there's every chance that he walks into a huge shot and ends up badly hurt.

However, the more I think about this one, the more I'm leaning towards Covington. While Woodley's counter-striking has always been dangerous, his tendency to circle closely to the fence could get him into major trouble in this fight.

Based on his UFC losses to Usman and Burns, 'The Chosen One' is susceptible to an opponent who's willing to force him back and then look to rough him up in the clinch. To see Usman do that to Woodley wasn't too shocking. But Burns was able to do it as well, despite not having the wrestling game that 'The Nigerian Nightmare' possesses.

Add in the fact that Woodley is getting older now (he's 39 next year) and doesn't have the cardio of Covington, and I think everything comes together to make this a good fight for 'Chaos.' For the UFC Welterweight title back in 2018? Maybe it would've gone the other way. But post-Burns? I'm just not convinced Woodley has it anymore, sadly.

The Pick: Covington via unanimous decision

#2 UFC Welterweight Division: Donald Cerrone vs. Niko Price

Can popular veteran Donald Cerrone get back to his winning ways this weekend?

Even on such a loaded card, this fight stands out as one that should absolutely guarantee excitement. ‘Cowboy,’ of course, holds the records for the most wins in UFC history, the most finishes in UFC history, and the most post-fight bonus awards in UFC history.

He’s never won a UFC title, but there’s a very real argument to be made that he’s the most exciting fighter in the history of the promotion.

Price meanwhile, has been making his own name as an action hero since arriving in the UFC in 2016. He’s won seven of his 11 UFC fights, taking four post-fight bonuses. And win or lose, he’s never gone the distance once. ‘The Hybrid’ defines a kill-or-be-killed fighter.

So can Price basically usurp Cerrone’s spot as the 170lbs division’s best action fighter? Well, there’s every possibility he can. Not only is ‘Cowboy’ now getting relatively old for a top UFC fighter – he turns 38 next March – but he’s also quietly been on a pretty bad slide as of late.

You have to go back to May 2019 to find his last win – an impressive dissection of Al Iaquinta. Since then, he’s been beaten four times, with three of those opponents – Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje, and Conor McGregor – all stopping him by TKO.

Sure, it’s fair to say that all three men are amongst the highest-level opponents he possibly could’ve faced in the UFC right now. He did well against Ferguson before suffering a fight-ending eye injury, and realistically he never matched that well against Gaethje or McGregor.

The fact is, though, that he’s taken so much punishment and been in so many wars over the years, there’s every chance he’s genuinely begun to reach the tailend of his career. His most recent fight with Anthony Pettis was telling of this.

There was a genuine argument to be made that Cerrone deserved the nod from the judges in that fight, but it was hard not to feel like the two men simply weren’t close to their best anymore. Like two aging gunslingers facing off, both ‘Cowboy’ and ‘Showtime’ looked markedly slower than they’d done in their primes.

And that doesn’t bode well for Cerrone’s chances against Price. By anyone’s standards in terms of skills, ‘Cowboy’ is the better fighter here. He’s a cleaner, more technical striker, and is probably the superior grappler too, based on what he’s shown in his fights with the likes of Evan Dunham and Edson Barboza.

However, ‘The Hybrid’ is incredibly tough and has finishing power from basically all angles. Remember his KO of Randy Brown using hammer fists from the bottom? He’s also willing to get into the kind of wild exchanges that have typified Cerrone’s UFC career and refuses to back down from any opponent.

Add in the fact that for the last few years, ‘Cowboy’ has shown a worrying tendency to wilt under heavy striking power – think his fights against McGregor, Gaethje, and Darren Till – and I just can’t see this fight being successful for him.

Price is arguably his heir when it comes to the most exciting man in the UFC, and I think he’ll take that crown this weekend, probably with an early TKO.

The Pick: Price via first-round TKO

#3 UFC Middleweight Division: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Prospect Khamzat Chimaev has garnered a lot of hype in a short time with the UFC.

For a long time, some fans have argued that “the UFC doesn’t look to make stars anymore.” Simply put, that’s not true, and the emergence of Chimaev is a testament to that. The Swedish-based Chechen fighter came into the UFC in July and smashed John Phillips on late notice, then followed that up 10 days later with a brutal TKO of Rhys McKee.

Since then, ‘Borz’ has been hyped beyond belief by the UFC, to the point where the promotion has actually announced his next opponent – Demian Maia – before he’s even fought Meerschaert this weekend. The last prospect to get this much hype was probably Israel Adesanya, and of course, he’s now a UFC champion. Can Chimaev follow in his footsteps?

To be honest, it’s impossible to say right now. ‘Borz’ clearly has absolutely tremendous skills. Despite being a natural Welterweight rather than Middleweight, he threw Phillips around like a ragdoll before submitting him.

McKee, meanwhile, was beaten in incredibly dominant fashion despite being a high-level prospect in his own right. ‘Skeletor’ barely landed a strike on the Chechen fighter before being pounded out in three minutes.

It must be said, though, that Meerschaert is on a different level to Chimaev’s last two opponents. ‘GM3’ isn’t going to be contending for the UFC title anytime soon. But he’s a large Middleweight with a ton of experience – 44 professional fights to Chimaev’s eight – and more than anything, he knows how to finish. Of his 31 wins, only two have come via decision.

The issue that Meerschaert is going to have here is one he’s had throughout his UFC tenure. He’s not the best athlete in the division, and he’s up against a highly explosive and fast opponent with the capability of outwrestling him comfortably.

Looking back at his UFC career, all of his losses – to Thiago Santos, Jack Hermansson, Kevin Holland, Eryk Anders, and Ian Heinisch – came against superior athletes. And while Chimaev is definitely likely to be giving up some size in this fight, is it going to stop him taking Meerschaert down? In all honesty, it isn’t likely.

Even if Meerschaert can keep this fight standing, there’s no guarantee of success. He’s a passable striker, and his UFC TKO of Eric Spicely in 2017 was impressive. But how he’ll deal with the sheer aggression of Chimaev is anyone’s guess.

Can ‘GM3’ win this fight? For sure. His experience means that realistically, Chimaev won’t be putting him in positions he’s never seen before. And if the young Chechen gets overconfident or makes an error, then Meerschaert definitely has the ability to finish him, particularly with a submission.

However, gut feeling and what I’ve seen from Chimaev tells me that the hype is real, and there’s every chance he could see a Khabib Nurmagomedov-level trajectory in the future. I think he’ll take Meerschaert down and pound him out, sending another message to the rest of the UFC.

The Pick: Chimaev via first-round TKO

#4 UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Johnny Walker vs. Ryan Spann

Can Johnny Walker get his hype train back up and running against Ryan Spann this weekend?

The UFC’s Light Heavyweight division remains arguably the strangest male division in the promotion right now. Home to some exciting prospects with massive holes in their game as well as some of the UFC’s most shopworn veterans, the 205lbs class does tend to give fans exciting fights. But they’re often sloppy ones too.

However, with longtime dominant champ Jon Jones dropping his title to move up to Heavyweight, things are suddenly wide open for one of those prospects – or one of said shopworn veterans – to make a run at the top.

Walker and Spann both fall into the former category. Interestingly, Spann has a better UFC record despite not garnering anywhere near the hype that Walker did in 2019.

That’s because the Brazilian looked like he was set to skyrocket up the UFC’s rankings at a ridiculous rate. Debuting in the UFC in late 2018 with a knockout of Khalil Rountree via elbows, Walker then took out Justin Ledet with a spinning backfist and Misha Cirkunov with a flying knee.

Standing at 6’5” and seemingly gifted with ludicrous athleticism, Walker was taking opponents out with moves that most Light Heavyweights wouldn’t even try. Unfortunately, though, his run came to an abrupt end last November, when he was knocked out by Corey Anderson.

Since then, he’s fought just once – being outworked by Nikita Krylov in a fight that saw both men tire out pretty badly. Walker’s hype train has largely been derailed, but another flashy win here would probably see it get back on the tracks quickly. But can he do it?

Spann is much more of a meat-and-potatoes fighter. ‘Superman’ put together a solid but spotty record leading into his 2017 fight with Karl Roberson on Dana White’s Contender Series, but found himself knocked out in quick fashion. From there, he moved back to his more natural 205lbs and eventually won his way into the UFC a year later.

Since then, Spann has reeled off four straight UFC wins, defeating Luis Henrique, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Devin Clark, and Sam Alvey. We can basically skip over the first two – Henrique wasn’t a UFC-level fighter while Nogueira was essentially a walking zombie at the time of their fight.

It’s definitely worth looking at the other two wins, though. Clark seemed to be ahead in the opening round of his fight with Spann before ducking his head a little too much. And ‘Superman’ quickly finished him with a standing guillotine.

Alvey, meanwhile, was comprehensively outfought in all areas by Spann until a third-round rally that almost put ‘Superman’ out cold. Overall then, how does Spann match up with Walker here?

I think it’s a pretty tough fight to call. Obviously, Walker has the more flashy offense, is the better athlete, and definitely has the capability to take out Spann in a rush. But if he can’t do that, then I’d argue that Spann’s more straightforward style, as well as his superior cardio, should be enough for him to outwork the Brazilian.

Overall, I’m leaning towards Spann here. ‘Superman’ has been TKO’d twice in his career, but both losses came in fights that saw him cut to 185lbs – a big weight cut for a guy who stands at 6’5” and clearly walks around above 220lbs. And the toughness he showed against the heavy hands of Alvey suggests to me that he’s got a pretty solid chin.

Walker, meanwhile, has not only shown a penchant for gassing out, but he was also clearly outworked on the ground by Krylov. And I see no reason why Spann – who appears to be a superior wrestler at least – can’t do the same.

To see Walker take out Spann in the first round wouldn’t stun me. But overall, I think ‘Superman’ will grind him down for his fifth UFC win.

The Pick: Spann via unanimous decision

#5 UFC Strawweight Division: Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos

Mackenzie Dern is one of the best grapplers in the UFC Strawweight division.

This clash in the UFC Strawweight division features two of the best 115lbs grapplers on the roster right now. Dern – a multi-time champion in countless grappling competitions and a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt – is the more credentialed of the two. It's tricky to sleep on the skills of Markos, though.

'Quiet Storm' also has substantially more experience than her opponent here. With 14 fights in the UFC alone, she's got more than double the Octagon appearances of Dern. So will that experience be enough to take her to a victory here?

I'm honestly not convinced. The problem Markos has in this fight is that she's basically outmatched in her best area – on the mat. Dern isn't a complete fighter by anyone's standards. Her takedowns aren't great, and on the feet, she has power but is a crude striker rather than someone who uses precision.

On the ground, though, she's incredible – as she proved with her beautiful kneebar submission of Hannah Cifers in May. Amanda Ribas showed that Dern is beatable when she basically beat her up standing for 15 minutes last October, simply avoiding all of her takedowns. But is Markos really capable of that kind of performance?

Based on her UFC career thus far, the answer is probably no. Not only is she not the most natural striker in her own right – although she's more than capable of exchanging on the feet – but she's also highly inconsistent, which would explain some of her more head-scratching losses to the likes of Cortney Casey and Jessica Penne.

If Markos can keep this fight standing, work Dern over from range, and more importantly, fight in a conservative way, then she's got a shot here. But to do that, she'll have to fight in a way we haven't really seen from her before.

The more likely outcome is that she gets involved in a grappling exchange with Dern. And while she's probably capable of holding her own for a certain period of time, at some point, she'll slip up, and Mackenzie is likely to submit her. Dern isn't ready for the very top fighters in the UFC's Strawweight division just yet, but this feels like a good match for her to me.

The Pick: Dern via second-round submission

#6 UFC Middleweight Division: Kevin Holland vs. Darren Stewart

Kevin Holland has been one of the UFC's more active fighters during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Both of these Middleweights have been very active with the UFC – or have tried to be active – in recent months. So it comes as no surprise that both men only fought a month ago.

Stewart was able to catch Maki Pitolo in a guillotine choke to pick up the first submission win of his career, while Holland looked excellent in knocking out newcomer Joaquin Buckley. That was actually the second TKO win for Holland during the COVID-19 pandemic, as he also TKO'd Anthony Hernandez in just 39 seconds in May.

On paper, at least, this should be a very close fight. Both men hit hard – as is made clear by the fact that they have a combined four KO's or TKO's in the UFC. Both are capable of catching their opponent on the ground, too, particularly with chokes.

They also sport pretty solid gas tanks, pretty solid chins, and have fought a similar level of opponent. Even their UFC records – 5-2 for Holland, 5-5 for Stewart – are quite similar. So is there any area to split them?

The most likely would be in the wrestling department. Although he's shown off some excellent takedowns at points in his UFC career, Stewart is still developing when it comes to his wrestling game. 'The Dentist' – like plenty of British fighters over the years – can be taken down and controlled by a better wrestler, as both Edmen Shahbazyan and Bartosz Fabinski showed.

Holland, meanwhile, is a pretty strong wrestler. Sure, he comes from a kickboxing background and didn't wrestle at a Division I collegiate level or anything like that. But from what I've seen, he seems more adept at taking his opponents down and keeping them there than Stewart is.

'The Dentist' was able to fend off the takedowns of an excellent wrestler in the form of Deron Winn. But it also needs to be noted that Winn, at this stage in his career, is very raw. Almost a pure wrestler, he doesn't have the overall skills needed to truly set up his wrestling game.

This one could honestly go either way, particularly if Holland simply decides to throw caution to the wind and trade-off with 'The Dentist.' However, I'm willing to guess that he'll look to use the main advantage he does have to the best of his ability. Holland by decision is my pick.

The Pick: Holland via unanimous decision

#7 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card

Mirsad Bektic is still one of the top prospects in the 145lbs division despite some recent setbacks

Probably anticipating plenty of changes to the card due to COVID-19, the UFC has booked a monstrous eight-fight preliminary card for this show.

Headlining the prelim portion is a Featherweight meeting between Mirsad Bektic and Luiz Garagorri. Long considered one of the 145lbs division’s best prospects, Bektic is an explosive fighter who has brute-force takedowns and hits extremely hard. His last outing was highly controversial, too, as he came out on the wrong end of a tight decision in a fight against Dan Ige that many people felt he won.

Garagorri, meanwhile, is a flashy offensive fighter coming out of Uruguay. A hard-hitting striker willing to throw caution to the wind, he’ll have a chance of winning if he can keep Bektic at a distance. However, in all honesty, it’s hard to see him stopping the Bosnian’s takedown. And if that’s the case, then I suspect Bektic can pick up his seventh UFC win, probably by submission.

In a Flyweight tussle, Mayra Bueno Silva takes on Mara Romero Borella. This is probably the last chance saloon for Italy’s Borella, as she’s coming off a three-fight losing streak. So can she turn things around here?

I’m not convinced myself. Silva hasn’t shown a great deal in the UFC thus far and has far less experience than her opponent. But she was able to submit the tricky Gillian Robertson in her UFC debut, and that means she’s clearly talented. Borella is likely to go to the ground with her, and the Italian should find herself in trouble from there. Silva by submission is my pick.

In the men’s Flyweight division, talented athlete Jordan Espinosa faces David Dvorak. We’ve seen Czechia’s Dvorak in the UFC just once before – he took a clear-cut decision win over Bruno Silva. ‘The Undertaker’ thrives by pushing a reckless pace, throwing wild combinations of strikes, and mixing in his takedowns for good measure.

Espinosa has more UFC experience to his name. But based on what I’ve seen of him, I’m not convinced he can really survive the pace that Dvorak is likely to put on, particularly as he’s also willing to put himself in harm’s way to look for the win. Dvorak via decision is my pick.

At Bantamweight, Jessica-Rose Clark takes on Sarah Alpar. Australia’s Clark is a popular fighter thanks to a likable personality and a willingness to push the pace inside the cage. But she’s struggled somewhat in the UFC as of late, and hasn’t fought since last November. That fight saw her drop her return to Bantamweight to the larger Pannie Kianzad.

Alpar, meanwhile, is making her UFC debut after picking up a win last month on Dana White’s Contender Series. Clark is probably the more polished fighter here though, even if she’s smaller, is coming off a layoff, and has much less finishing ability. I like ‘Jessy Jess’ to win by decision here.

In another Bantamweight bout, Journey Newson faces Randy Costa. Fighting out of the Lauzon Brothers’ camp, Costa is massively inexperienced for a UFC fighter – just 5-1 in MMA overall. But he did look excellent in taking out Boston Salmon by first-round TKO last October.

Newson, on the other hand, has more experience but hasn’t really fought top-level opposition just yet. And in his UFC career, he has been beaten by Ricardo Ramos before seeing a win over Domingo Pilarte overturned due to a positive test for marijuana.

This should likely be a quick fight; both men come to finish and don’t really have the defensive skills to make this one last too long. It’s a toss-up, really, but I’m going to go with Costa via TKO.

Another fight at Bantamweight sees Andre Ewell take on Irwin Rivera. Ewell is a genuinely excellent fighter with outstanding all-round skills, although he has been beaten by a pair of high-level fighters in Nathaniel Wood and Marlon Vera during his UFC stint.

Rivera, on the other hand, is 1-1 in the UFC, and in all honesty, he hasn’t shown all that much to get excited over even if he looks like a solid enough hand. I think this one should be relatively exciting, but I like Ewell to outwork ‘The Beast’ for a decision.

At Featherweight, Darrick Minner takes on TJ Laramie. Minner came into the UFC earlier this year on late notice and was easily beaten by Grant Dawson, while Laramie is a high-level prospect from Canada who fought and won last month on Dana White’s Contender Series. Given Minner showed so little in his debut and Laramie has a couple of wins against tough veterans, I’m going to take him here via decision.

Finally, in a late-notice Bantamweight bout, Tyson Nam faces Jerome Rivera. A natural Flyweight, Nam was scheduled to fight Matt Schnell last week before the fight was called off due to a botched weight cut from Schnell. Rivera is also more suited to 125lbs, but the late notice probably explains the fight being at 135lbs. At any rate, I’m taking Nam here due to Rivera coming in on such late notice and Nam finally picking up his first UFC win earlier this year. Nam by TKO is my pick.