UFC Fight Night 178: Covington vs. Woodley - Predictions and Picks

#5 UFC Strawweight Division: Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos

Mackenzie Dern is one of the best grapplers in the UFC Strawweight division.

This clash in the UFC Strawweight division features two of the best 115lbs grapplers on the roster right now. Dern – a multi-time champion in countless grappling competitions and a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt – is the more credentialed of the two. It's tricky to sleep on the skills of Markos, though.

'Quiet Storm' also has substantially more experience than her opponent here. With 14 fights in the UFC alone, she's got more than double the Octagon appearances of Dern. So will that experience be enough to take her to a victory here?

I'm honestly not convinced. The problem Markos has in this fight is that she's basically outmatched in her best area – on the mat. Dern isn't a complete fighter by anyone's standards. Her takedowns aren't great, and on the feet, she has power but is a crude striker rather than someone who uses precision.

On the ground, though, she's incredible – as she proved with her beautiful kneebar submission of Hannah Cifers in May. Amanda Ribas showed that Dern is beatable when she basically beat her up standing for 15 minutes last October, simply avoiding all of her takedowns. But is Markos really capable of that kind of performance?

Based on her UFC career thus far, the answer is probably no. Not only is she not the most natural striker in her own right – although she's more than capable of exchanging on the feet – but she's also highly inconsistent, which would explain some of her more head-scratching losses to the likes of Cortney Casey and Jessica Penne.

If Markos can keep this fight standing, work Dern over from range, and more importantly, fight in a conservative way, then she's got a shot here. But to do that, she'll have to fight in a way we haven't really seen from her before.

The more likely outcome is that she gets involved in a grappling exchange with Dern. And while she's probably capable of holding her own for a certain period of time, at some point, she'll slip up, and Mackenzie is likely to submit her. Dern isn't ready for the very top fighters in the UFC's Strawweight division just yet, but this feels like a good match for her to me.

The Pick: Dern via second-round submission