UFC Fight Night 179: Moraes vs. Sandhagen - Predictions and Picks

After a solid show this past weekend, the UFC returns to Abu Dhabi's 'Fight Island' this weekend for UFC Fight Night 179: Moraes vs. Sandhagen.

The show features a major headliner between two of the UFC's top Bantamweight contenders, and while the rest of the card is largely lacking in name value, the hope is that the show will provide plenty of entertainment.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 179: Moraes vs. Sandhagen.

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#1 UFC Bantamweight Division: Marlon Moraes vs. Cory Sandhagen

Marlon Moraes defeated UFC legend Jose Aldo in his last fight

The UFC's Bantamweight division is arguably the promotion's most loaded weight class, but this fight could be more important than most. With newly-crowned champion Petr Yan looking likely to defend his UFC title against Aljamain Sterling at some point in late 2020 or early 2021, the winner of this fight could easily find themselves in line for the next title shot.

Some would probably argue that Moraes should already have been granted a shot. After all, he defeated former UFC Featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo at UFC 245 in December, but somehow Aldo was granted a crack at the vacant title in a fight with Yan instead.

Granted, it's probably fair to suggest that Aldo deserved the nod against Moraes, but the fight was incredibly close, and 'Magic' certainly gave his fellow Brazilian a lot of problems.

Essentially, Moraes is a monstrous striker at 135lbs. His leg kicks are as vicious as any you'll see in the UFC, and he's an excellent boxer too, with a tendency to let big combinations go at the body and the head.

Perhaps Moraes' greatest strength though, is his timing. He seems to be able to understand the movements of his opponents very quickly and can adjust his striking accordingly – as Sterling himself found out when he basically dived into a knee to the head that left him unconscious in 2017.

'Magic' does have some weaknesses, though. He's a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, and while his offensive grappling has looked good in the UFC – an example being his guillotine choke of Raphael Assuncao in 2019 – when he was put on his back by Henry Cejudo, he definitely had issues in defending ground-and-pound.

However, those issues may have stemmed from Moraes' biggest weakness. Simply put, he definitely has a tendency to slow down in his fights. While we haven't seen him outright gas out in the UFC, in all of his longer fights, his offensive output clearly waned in the later rounds.

That could almost certainly be music to the ears of Sandhagen. 'The Sandman' is a pretty sharp striker in his own right. He doesn't hit as hard as Moraes does, but then he doesn't come in with the same buzzsaw style as the Brazilian. Instead, he tends to snipe at his opponents with in-and-out movement, and we've seen him use that style to perfection in the UFC against opponents such as Assuncao and John Lineker.

On the ground, too, Sandhagen has proven to be an excellent fighter. He was able to escape some horrible positions in his fight with Iuri Alcantara in 2018, and eventually TKO'd the Brazilian. Sure, Sterling throttled him in just over a minute, but 'Funk Master' has the ability to do that to anyone when he's on form.

For me, then, this fight comes down to whether Sandhagen can use his striking style to wear Moraes down until he tires out without taking too much damage in the process. It's a tricky question to answer, but I'm leaning to him being unable to do it.

Essentially, Sandhagen's UFC run of five wins in a row came solely against opponents who are either far lesser athletes or quite substantially smaller. Moraes, on the other hand, is probably a superior athlete to 'The Sandman.' He appears to be markedly quicker, he hits harder, and he isn't going to be outmuscled.

With that in mind, I'm taking Moraes to switch Sandhagen's lights out early on in this one – setting up a potential rematch with Sterling for the title (I'm picking him to beat Yan) in 2021.

The Pick: Moraes via first-round TKO

#2 UFC Featherweight Division: Edson Barboza vs. Makwan Amirkhani

Does UFC veteran Edson Barboza have enough left in the tank to compete at 145lbs?

The UFC doesn’t tend to match fighters who lost their last fight with fighters who won theirs, but in this instance, this fight seems to make all the sense in the world. Both men are amongst the most exciting fighters in the UFC Featherweight division, and the promotion has clearly booked this one with fireworks in mind.

The biggest question surrounding Barboza right now is exactly how much ‘Junior’ has left in the tank. The Brazilian is 34 years old now and has been in the UFC since 2010. And it’s an unwritten rule of MMA that once a fighter’s been at or around the top for a decade, the only way is down.

With all of that considered, Barboza’s drop to 145lbs earlier in 2020 sounded like a horrible idea. Not only did the Brazilian seemingly have no weight to shed whatsoever, but traditionally, UFC fighters who’d dropped weight classes at the tail end of their careers had never done well.

‘Junior’ bucked that trend though in May with his fight with Dan Ige. Sure, he came off on the wrong end of a split decision, but the truth is that he probably should’ve seen his hand raised. He clearly outstruck the Hawaiian for the majority of the fight and only struggled right at the end of the third round.

So how does he match with Amirkhani? ‘Mr Finland’ has been in the UFC now for five years, and he’s looked pretty excellent despite flying under the radar. He’s picked up six UFC wins and has only lost twice – a contentious decision against Arnold Allen and a TKO loss at the hands of Shane Burgos.

The Finnish fighter is a willing and aggressive striker, but realistically his best area is on the ground. Amirkhani is a venomous grappler with serious finishing skills from all areas, and the fact that he’s got 11 submission wins on his ledger backs up that idea.

The issue for him here is whether he can actually get Barboza off his feet to work that grappling game. Amirkhani just isn’t a tremendous wrestler, and while he excels in terms of scrambling, Barboza has never been an easy fighter to take down.

Basically, there are a few ways I could see this going. If Barboza can keep the fight standing, keep things technical, and unleash those vicious leg kicks and body punches, then I could see him replicating the performance of Burgos when he TKO’d the Finn and coming away with a win. He’d have to be careful – he doesn’t have the best chin now, and Amirkhani is willing and has power – but it’d definitely be the smartest route to take.

However, if he’s gunshy or slow and Amirkhani can get inside and get him down, then there’s every chance he could work the Brazilian over for a submission – maybe his third anaconda choke in the UFC.

I can’t see that happening, though. Based on the Ige fight, Barboza still has a bit left in the tank, and Amirkhani doesn’t possess the chin or wild toughness that allowed the Hawaiian to survive the Brazilian’s assault. I suspect we’ll see a firefight at points, but Barboza will come out on top.

The Pick: Barboza via second-round TKO

#3 UFC Heavyweight Division: Ben Rothwell vs. Marcin Tybura

Longtime UFC veteran Ben Rothwell has slowed down since his return in 2019.

It feels like the UFC can’t put on a show right now without having a potentially sloppy Heavyweight fight on the main card, and this one fits that spot to a tee. Both men are coming off two wins in a row, but if we’re honest, neither man is anywhere near UFC title contention right now and for good reason.

Rothwell simply hasn’t been the same since returning to the UFC from a suspension for PEDs in 2019. Prior to that, ‘Big Ben’ was a lumbering fighter but one who was surprisingly quick and possessed dangerous finishing skills both on the ground and the feet.

Since his return, though, that speed appears to be gone. Rothwell now tends to plod forward, either lunging for the clinch or winging heavy punches that his opponent can often avoid. His last two UFC wins have been quite contentious, too.

Stefan Struve was picking him apart until Rothwell landed a number of low blows to turn the tide, and Ovince St. Preux arguably landed the better strikes on him but simply backed up too much for the judges to be swayed.

Tybura meanwhile, has had similar issues. He started his UFC career well by reeling off three impressive wins, but hit a ceiling in his losses to Fabricio Werdum and Derrick Lewis. Since then, he’s largely stagnated, either winning fights by grinding his opponents down from the clinch or on the ground, or losing them by TKO.

Basically then, unless this fight ends in a quick KO – likely for Rothwell – then it’s probably not going to be that entertaining. More likely is a slow-paced clinch-fest with the odd big exchange of punches. The question for me is whether Tybura can put Rothwell on his back. If he can do that, then it’s a winnable fight for him – but if he can’t, he’s likely to lose.

Given ‘Tybur’ isn’t a truly powerful wrestler, then – he tends to set his takedowns up by crowding opponents who back up straight – it doesn’t bode well for him. Rothwell is slow and plodding, but he’s still been able to fend off the takedowns of the likes of Blagoy Ivanov and St. Preux in recent fights.

Overall, I suspect this will look like Rothwell’s fight with Ivanov – two big, plodding dudes exchanging strikes in and out of the clinch. ‘Big Ben’ came out on the wrong end of that fight, but I think Ivanov is a little quicker than Tybura, and that lack of speed should make the difference. Rothwell on a three-fight win streak in the UFC in 2020 sounds crazy, but it’s the likely outcome for me.

The Pick: Rothwell via unanimous decision

#4 UFC Middleweight Division: Markus Perez vs. Dricus du Plessis

Markus Perez is one of the UFC's more underrated fighters.

This fight would initially have seen Perez facing off with his fellow Brazilian Rodolfo Vieira, in what honestly sounded like a horrible fight for 'Maluko.' But with Vieira out with an injury, South Africa's du Plessis has been given the call for his UFC debut. So can he make it a good one?

'Stillknocks' has a solid record, at least. A champion in Poland's KSW and South Africa's EFC promotions, he's 14-2 and has won his last two fights with finishes. Judging on the footage available on him, he's an interesting fighter indeed.

Du Plessis has nine wins by submission compared to five by KO or TKO, but he appears to be a Muay Thai stylist by nature rather than an outright grappler. He's clearly dangerous on the ground, but appears to be a more reactive grappler – latching onto chokes when given the opportunity rather than taking opponents down to hunt for them.

On the feet, meanwhile, the native of South Africa clearly hits very hard, has good technique, and shows good head movement at times. He's worryingly susceptible to a wild brawl, but at 26 years old and with just one loss by KO, he does appear confident in his chin. In all honesty, though, brawling is never a good idea, and he'd be wise not to do that against Perez.

'Maluko' isn't a natural striker by any means, but he's got knockout power, he's willing to throw low-percentage strikes, and he's definitely up for a brawl as we've seen throughout his UFC career. He's also a serious Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, which should be a little disconcerting for du Plessis, who hasn't really faced anyone that great on the ground yet.

In all honesty, Perez might be a little underrated. His UFC losses have come to either better athletes, or largely by 'Maluko' seemingly losing focus at times and struggling to put his offense together fully. Against lesser fighters such as Anthony Hernandez and James Bochnovic, though, he's looked very good.

Du Plessis is almost definitely a more explosive athlete than Perez. But the question is whether the South African is as good as the other UFC fighters – Wellington Turman, Andrew Sanchez, Eryk Anders – who have beaten Perez in the past. And to be honest, I'm not too sure he is.

Sure, he could be that good, but fighters from the African circuit traditionally haven't fared well when they've stepped up to the UFC level, and while du Plessis has definitely looked good on that circuit, this is a big step up for him.

Perez's grappling will definitely give him a lot to think about, and while he might go onto more success in the future, I don't think he'll win his UFC debut.

The Pick: Perez via second-round submission

#5 UFC Heavyweight Division: Tom Aspinall vs. Alan Baudot

The UK's Tom Aspinall is a prospect to watch in the UFC Heavyweight division.

Another fight that's been changed on relatively late notice, this one would've seen the UK's Aspinall – who picked up an impressive win over Jake Collier in his UFC debut in July – taking on Sergei Spivak. However, with Spivak out for undisclosed reasons, UFC newcomer Baudot has stepped in to take the fight.

This makes this fight a bit tricky to pick. Baudot is 8-1 in MMA, but there's hardly any footage on him. From what I can gather, he appears to be a kickboxer coming out of the same French camp as the likes of Ciryl Gane, Christian M'Pumbu, and initially, Francis Ngannou.

Like those men, 'The Black Samourai' appears to be a grade-A athlete, with plenty of explosive speed and power and a background in kickboxing. However, given the only footage available on him is a KO loss to current UFC fighter Dalcha Lungiambula and a quick KO win over the unknown Yuto Nakajima, it's hard to really get a handle on him properly.

Aspinall, meanwhile, has gained a pretty serious reputation from his home city of Liverpool. A member of Team Kaobon alongside the likes of current UFC star Darren Till and former UFC fighters Terry Etim and Paul Kelly, he's clearly dangerous in all areas and is a ruthless finisher.

As we saw against Collier, he's deceptively fast for a big man, has brutal knockout power, and is generally an excellent Muay Thai fighter. But he's not just a kickboxer – he's also a legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who has even been compared to Frank Mir thanks to his ultra-aggressive style.

Overall, Aspinall has to be favored here. Sure, he's only had one UFC fight, and that lasted a matter of seconds, but even that gives him far more experience than Baudot. And given the Frenchman is taking this fight on short notice, it's hard to imagine him having much success.

If Aspinall chooses to trade-off with Baudot, then it could be a dangerous proposition for him, as the newcomer clearly hits very hard and has skills. Assuming he doesn't do that, though, then the likeliest outcome is that he'll take the UFC newcomer down for a tapout win.

The Pick: Aspinall via first-round submission

#6 UFC Featherweight Division: Youssef Zalal vs. Ilia Topuria

Spain's Ilia Topuria is set to make his UFC debut this weekend against Youssef Zalal.

This one is another somewhat strange choice for a main card fight given that Spain's Topuria is making his UFC debut, while Zalal hasn't exactly turned heads in his two UFC wins thus far. However, the UFC clearly expects fireworks between the two, so hopefully that's what we'll get.

Both of Zalal's UFC fights – against Peter Barrett and Jordan Griffin – have shown him to be a dangerous fighter in all areas. His striking is relatively pinpoint, and he's got clear power in his hands and legs, and against Barrett, he was also able to do a lot of damage on the ground.

Topuria's main attribute, on the other hand, appears to be sheer aggression. The Spaniard looks to assault his opponents with brutally fast and heavy strikes, but he's also comfortable diving for a double leg on a retreating opponent.

He appears to be equally aggressive on the ground, too, hunting for submissions from the minute the fight hits the ground. In fact, the Spaniard has seven tap outs to his name, with his most recent win coming by knockout.

The big question surrounding Topuria is how he'll do against UFC-level opposition. Sure, he's crushed everyone in his path thus far, but none of his opponents have ever been in the UFC, and none have come close to the levels of athleticism that the Spaniard brings to the table.

So, can he simply run through Zalal as he's done everyone else in his path? Or – faced with adversity for the first time – will he crumble? In all honesty, it's almost impossible to say. Zalal is clearly a UFC-level fighter, but he isn't a contender or anything like that, and so there is a chance Topuria does smash him quickly as he's done to his prior opponents.

The smart pick here is probably Zalal. He's got the UFC experience – going the distance twice – and has largely looked solid – but I'm actually going with Topuria here. His athleticism is simply off the charts, and given Zalal hasn't looked like a great finisher yet, I think Topuria will take him by surprise to pick up a win in his UFC debut.

The Pick: Topuria via first-round submission

#7 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card

The UK's Tom Breese is pegged to headline this weekend's UFC prelims.

As of the time of writing, the UFC will show seven preliminary fights on the ESPN+ streaming service this weekend. That may increase to eight if the promotion can find Thomas Almeida an opponent, but right now, that hasn't been confirmed.

At the top of the prelim card sits a Middleweight fight between Tom Breese and UFC newcomer KB Bhullar. Canada's Bhullar is bringing an undefeated 8-0 record into the UFC, but this is a very tricky debut fight for him.

The UK's Breese has struggled with injuries, but he's a very strong, technical fighter coming out of Firas Zahabi's Tri-Star camp. His jab acts as a ramrod, he's an aggressive striker, and he's also very dangerous on the ground. I simply can't see a debutant getting the better of him. Therefore, I'll take Breese to win a decision.

At Heavyweight, Chris Daukaus faces Rodrigo Nascimento. This should be a close fight, as neither man is what you'd call a "true" Heavyweight, but they both have some serious skills. Daukaus is more of a striker, but he's also capable on the ground, while Nascimento is definitely more of a grappler.

Overall, I'm leaning towards Nascimento here. He looks like the slightly better athlete, and if he can get Daukaus to the ground, I think he can secure a tap out.

In a Middleweight clash, Joaquin Buckley takes on Impa Kasanganay. A natural 170lber, Buckley has only fought in the UFC once – a knockout loss at the hands of Kevin Holland back in August. Kasanganay, meanwhile, won two fights on Dana White's Contender Series and then did well to out-point the tough Maki Pitolo in his own UFC debut.

This could be a close one to call due to Kasanganay largely lacking finishing skills, but his size and power will give him an advantage here, and so I think he'll take a decision.

At Bantamweight, Ali Al-Qaisi and Tony Kelley face off. Again, this one is probably a toss-up to call. Neither man showed all that much in their UFC debut, but nor were they outclassed either. Both men appeared to have solid all-round skills, but nothing to really make them stand out. Unfortunately, it's a forgettable fight, at least on paper. I'll take Kelley via decision.

In another Featherweight bout, Giga Chikadze faces Omar Morales. This one should be exciting as both men love to trade strikes and have multiple UFC wins to their name already. It's a close one to call, but Chikadze's more action-packed, aggressive style should be enough to edge him a tight win in what could be the Fight of the Night.

In the Women's Bantamweight division, Tracy Cortez takes on Stephanie Egger. Cortez made a strong UFC debut earlier in the year with a win over Vanessa Melo, and looks like a solid prospect to watch. Egger, meanwhile, is making her debut on relatively late notice here after putting together a solid 5-1 record on the regional circuit.

A former Featherweight, Egger should enjoy a size advantage here, but Cortez looks like the real deal to me and has some excellent skills. I'm taking Cortez via decision.

Finally, in a Flyweight tilt, Bruno Silva takes on Tagir Ulanbekov. This fight was supposed to go down on one of the UFC's cards at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, but travel restrictions forced it here. Interestingly, the fight was initially pegged to take place at 135lbs, but will now happen at Silva's more natural 125lbs.

Will that help 'Bulldog,' though? I personally doubt it. Ulanbekov looks like a seriously dangerous submission expert from Dagestan, and he appears to have powerful wrestling too. I'm taking Ulanbekov to pick up a submission in his UFC debut.