The UFC goes to Brazil for the first time in 2017 with Brazilian MMA legend Vitor Belfort taking on rising contender Kelvin Gastelum in the main event and Shogun Rua battling Gian Villante in the co-main event. Belfort and Rua are coming to the end of their careers, so it may be the last chance to see them do their thing.
Outside of that, the Lightweight division should get a new contender when Edson Barboza and Beneil Dariush get it on, either man is capable of making a run at the the very top of the division and it should be a fascinating fight.
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Main Card
Main Event: Vitor Belfort vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Massive gulf in age and experience here as Kelvin Gastelum takes on 39-year-old Vitor Belfort who has been fighting for almost as long as Gastelum has been alive. We know all about Belfort at this stage, at his best he was a ferocious striker, capable of beating anyone in an instant with the speed and power of his shots.
Unfortunately his best days are behind him now, he no longer has the durability or the stamina to compete against the top fighters in the division, as evidenced by his results against Gegard Mousasi and Jacare Souza. Despite this, he is still a dangerous striker at range, who is capable of changing a fight at any moment.
Gastelum returned to Middleweight in December with a comprehensive victory over Tim Kennedy, Gastelum struggled badly to make weight at Welterweight and it was hindering his career. While he is undersized for a middleweight, he simply cannot be trusted to make 170 pounds consistently and will be much healthier at this weight class.
Gastelum is an incredibly effective pressure fighter. He has tremendous power in his strikes, and while his striking may lack a little variety, everything he does throw, he throws well. Once he gets his opponents backed up to the fence, he is very good in close quarters, landing hard shots in the clinch and chaining together takedown attempts.
Once he gets a takedown he has ferocious ground and pound, and that will be his easiest route to victory here. I expect a slow start, with Gastelum wary of rushing in against the dangerous Belfort. Eventually, he will turn up the pressure, and Belfort will crack.
Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum via Knockout
Co-Main Event: Mauricio Rua vs. Gian Villante
Shogun Rua is an MMA legend, but like his compatriot in the main event, the former Pride Grand Prix winner and UFC Champion is past his prime and has declined severely in recent years. He likes to work kicks from the outside and then throw quick and powerful combinations once he is in range.
The timing and placement of his strikes are excellent and these skills have not abandoned him yet, he can also deliver crushing blows from the clinch if his opponent lets him work there.
Villante’s game is fairly basic but he is very good at it. He works behind a steady jab and a hard low kick and he will throw his power right hand if he can close the distance. Villante also moves surprisingly well for a man of his size and while his defence his suspect, he has a great chin.
With two good strikers who hit very hard, this encounter could end up being a great fight. I think Shogun has more tools and more craft to his game.
Prediction: Mauricio Rua via Decision
Edson Barboza vs. Beneil Dariush
Really great match-up here between Lightweight contenders looking to take that next step towards the top of the division. Barboza is one of the most technically sound strikers in the sport, he is a joy to watch when he is picking his opponents off from range.
He uses his reach by pumping out a long and solid jab regularly but his kicks really do the damage. Barboza is one of the best kickers in MMA, he has finished fights in the UFC with kicks to the legs (twice), body and head, including his incredible spinning wheel kick knockout of Terry Etim.
He has developed into a much more composed and experienced fighter recently, as he is dealing with pressure much better. His footwork has improved so he is backed up against the fence less often and his boxing in the pocket has also gone up a level.
That is still his weakness, though, being pressured and put against the fence for long periods but he is doing better at negating these issues.
Dariush is a good striker himself, but a better grappler and fortunately for him, his game is built around pressure. His striking has come on leaps and bounds in the last couple of years, he now possesses a good kickboxing game based on an active jab and punishing left kick.
Even now, though, it is in the grappling that he really shines, his takedown game is better from the clinch rather than shooting from the outside. Once he gets his opponent down, he has smothering top control and mixes ground and pound and submission attempts well to overwhelm his opponent.
If Dariush can stay in Barboza’s face and make him work throughout, and keep him on the ground for large periods he will win this. Ultimately I think Barboza is just too smooth on the feet though and will do enough.
Prediction: Edson Barboza via Decision
Ray Borg vs. Jussier Formiga
This is a fascinating fight between flyweight grapplers. Formiga has been at the top of the Flyweight division for a long time, even before the UFC brought the division into the fold. At this stage of his career he is well rounded and knows what he wants to do.
While his striking has improved, he is still primarily a grappler and that is where he gets most of his success.
Borg is also primarily a grappler, with his expertise being more in the wrestling department than jiu-jitsu. He is a young fighter who has explosive speed and endless energy. Expect to see some fun scrambles in this one, and a very close fight either way.
Prediction: Jussier Formiga via Decision
Bethe Correia vs. Marion Reneau
Correia shot to fame by fighting Ronda Rousey, but she way way out of her depth. Correia is a good boxer, what she lacks in athleticism she makes up for in technical soundness and energy, but the lack of power in her strikes is a problem.
Reneau has athleticism in abundance, even in her advancing years. She is a tightly packed ball of power and a very talented grappler. I think Reneau will need to get this to the ground to get the win, which will be tough but she has the skills.
Prediction: Marion Reneau via Decision
Tim Means vs. Alex Oliveira
Their first fight ended in a disappointing no-contest due to illegal knees, so they are doing it again. Oliveira is powerful and explosive which makes him dangerous everywhere, but his game has not got a lot of craft to it, especially in the striking. He does have a few more tricks up his sleeve on the ground, though.
Means is a relentless striker, using his long limbs to throw volume and overwhelm his opponents. He is also capable of landing hard knees and elbows from the clinch and I think he will be too much for Oliveira here.
Prediction: Tim Means via Knockout
Preliminary Card
Kevin Lee vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Trinaldo has been on a fantastic run recently and is currently on a seven fight winning streak. He is well-rounded but will be looking to strike here against Lee who you would expect to have the wrestling advantage.
Lee has youth on his side too and while he doesn’t have a very deep striking game he can do enough things well here to set up his takedowns against Trinaldo.
Prediction: Kevin Lee via Decision
Sergio Moraes vs. Davi Ramos
This is a Welterweight tussle between two of the most accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in MMA today. Moraes, who is a former BJJ world champion, is more experienced in MMA, especially at the UFC level and as such you would expect him to have the more developed striking game.
Ramos is only 6-1 in MMA, he was focusing on jiu-jitsu up until relatively recently and became ADCC champion in 2015 with a flying armbar. I think Ramos has great potential, but coming in here on short notice I have to give the edge to Moraes.
Prediction: Sergio Moraes via Decision
Joe Soto vs. Rani Yahya
Soto had a rough start to his UFC career but has turned it around by getting submission victories in his last two outings. I give Soto the advantage in the striking between these two, but Yahya is a brilliant grappler. Once he gets on top he is very difficult to shift as he has brilliant top control.
This fight will come down to takedowns if Yahya can get them he will get the win, if not, Soto will be able to outpoint him on the feet.
Prediction: Rani Yahya via Decision
Josh Burkman vs. Michel Prazeres
Two well-rounded Lightweights clash here in a fight that may mean the end of Burkman’s UFC tenure if he ends up on the wrong side of the result. Burkman may be the more capable fighter on the feet in this one, but he has looked very poor recently, going 1-4 in his last five fights.
I fancy Prazeres to get the better of the grappling exchanges and win a tight decision.
Prediction: Michel Prazeres via Decision
Fight Pass Prelims
Rony Jason vs. Jeremy Kennedy
Jason was an exciting prospect when he first burst onto the scene but he has failed to live up to his potential. He is a dangerous fighter in every phase but he has never been able to put it all together and he is frustratingly inconsistent.
Kennedy is a smothering type of fighter, looking to close the distance and drag his opponent into long tiring grappling exchanges. Jason certainly has the talent to win here, but Kennedy could make it a long night for him.
Prediction: Jeremy Kennedy via Decision
Paulo Henrique Costa vs. Garreth McLellan
Paulo “Borrachinha” ran through the Brazilian regional scene, ending all eight of his fights within a round and became Jungle Fight champion. He is an aggressive striker who throws with big power. McLellan has had an underwhelming time in the UFC so far, having lost three of his four fights. He is tough and durable but he doesn’t have top level skills.
Prediction: Paulo Henrique Costa via Knockout
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