UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks

Edson Barboza faces Justin Gaethje in what sounds like a fantastic bout on Saturday
Edson Barboza faces Justin Gaethje in what sounds like a fantastic bout on Saturday

#2 David Branch vs. Jack Hermansson

David Branch is one of the UFC's most dangerous grapplers
David Branch is one of the UFC's most dangerous grapplers

Another import from the WSOF promotion, Branch rejoined the UFC in mid-2017 after reeling off 10 straight wins outside the Octagon, including beating the likes of Yushin Okami and Paulo Filho. Wins over Kryz Jotko and Thiago Santos – the final one by knockout, strangely enough – as well as a solid showing against Luke Rockhold had him on the verge of title contention, but then fate conspired against him.

Matched with a fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert in Jacare Souza last November, Branch had the chance to leap to the front of the queue, but then Rockhold dropped out of his scheduled fight with Chris Weidman on the same show, and Souza stepped in. Late replacement Jared Cannonier stepped up to fight Branch, and subsequently knocked him out, knocking him out of title contention in the process.

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At his best though, Branch is a dangerous fighter in all areas. He’s not the best striker, but his boxing has improved over recent years and to be fair, the loss to Cannonier was somewhat of an aberration for him. His bread and butter though is his ground game – he’s an excellent grappler who can do incredible work from the top position, although he largely focuses on position and submission attempts than ground-and-pound.

Hermansson is an interesting match for him as he’s had somewhat of an up-and-down career in the UFC thus far, going 5-2, and this will be the first attempt to break into the upper echelons of the Middleweight division for ‘The Joker’.

Hailing from Sweden, Hermansson is a solidly rounded fighter, but his best work comes when he can get an opponent to the ground and beat on them from top position – notably he took out Alex Nicholson from this position, with frightening ease too.

A lanky fighter for 185lbs, Hermansson also stands at 6’1” and has ludicrously long arms, which he looks to use to his advantage by abusing his opponents from range. That’s unfortunately where this match looks bad for him, though.

Branch stands at 6’1” himself – he’s fought at 205lbs before – and also reportedly has a reach advantage over Hermansson, 81” compared to 77.5”. That’s a rarity for Hermansson to be facing.

Throw in the fact that Branch will be the best grappler Hermansson’s ever faced – I know he took out Thales Leites last year, but Leites was already considering retirement at that point and was way past his prime for that fight and even then, he almost had the Swede out of there with his ground game in the second round – and I can’t see him muscling Branch down and hurting him how he did to Nicholson or Brad Scott.

Hermansson will put up a fight, no doubt – and if anything it’d be cool to see him win as he’s a super-exciting fighter who’d be watchable rising up the ranks – but I think Branch is going to get him to the ground and from there he’ll be in deep, deep trouble.

The Pick: Branch via second round submission

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Edited by Arvind Sriram
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