UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks

Edson Barboza faces Justin Gaethje in what sounds like a fantastic bout on Saturday
Edson Barboza faces Justin Gaethje in what sounds like a fantastic bout on Saturday

#3 Josh Emmett vs. Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson's fleet-footed striking style should serve him well against Josh Emmett
Michael Johnson's fleet-footed striking style should serve him well against Josh Emmett

This Featherweight clash should be interesting to watch as Johnson, a former top ten Lightweight, will be looking to break into the rankings at 145lbs for the first time by beating Emmett, who was last seen being violently knocked out by Jeremy Stephens over a year ago. Normally I’d question why a fighter would be out for that long, but after a knockout as vicious as the one Emmett suffered, a long layoff was probably a good idea.

At any rate, this one should come down to how well Emmett deals with Johnson’s fleet-footed striking style, which has largely translated well to 145lbs thus far and allowed him to defeat both Andre Fili and Artem Lobov to go 2-1 at his new weight after a disappointing loss to Darren Elkins.

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Generally speaking, Johnson is an excellent striker who puts combinations together well, has decent footwork and is also able to evade the majority of his opponents’ takedowns due to his movement and wrestling.

Emmett is a far more straightforward fighter; a hard-nosed wrestler training out of Team Alpha Male, he dropped to 145lbs in late 2017 after going 2-1 at Lightweight, and then outpointed Felipe Arantes before really making a splash by knocking out former title challenger Ricardo Lamas. That put him in line for another big fight, but despite hurting Jeremy Stephens early, well, we all know how it ended for ‘The Grim Reaper’.

Emmett clearly hits hard, but it’s a little worrying that he only has 4 KO wins on his ledger out of his 13 overall. That suggests prior to his UFC run – and in his early days in the Octagon – he was more used to outpointing his opponents, something that’s going to be very difficult to do against a fighter as skilled in terms of movement as Johnson.

Where Johnson could find himself in trouble here is down the stretch. Sure, he did well to outpoint Fili and Lobov and didn’t really slow down in those fights, but neither man is likely to put the kind of pressure on him that Emmett probably will, and when Elkins put a lot of pressure on him, he folded. The same could be said for his losses to Justin Gaethje and Nate Diaz at 155lbs.

With that said, I don’t think Emmett can put the kind of volume on Johnson that Gaethje and Diaz did, and I don’t think he’s as bloody-minded as Elkins when it comes to wading through offense to keep on pushing forward, either. I’d put him closer to someone like Danny Castillo or Dustin Poirier when it comes to Johnson’s previous opponents, and both men were dealt with handily by ‘The Menace’.

This is a winnable fight for Emmett – he has to get inside, corral Johnson on the fence and make it a dirty brawl, tiring out the former Blackzilian with his pressure work, but it won’t be easy given Johnson’s skilled movement and ability to catch his opponent from angles.

I’m not sure Johnson will be able to finish Emmett off – he’s nowhere near as savage as Jeremy Stephens – but I think he’ll have enough to avoid being dragged into a filthy brawl and outpoint him.

The Pick: Johnson via unanimous decision

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Edited by Arvind Sriram
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