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#4 Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Michelle Waterson

Michelle Waterson could be in title contention with a win on Saturday

This is some interesting matchmaking given Kowalkiewicz is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Jessica Andrade, while Waterson’s on a 2-fight winning streak and last outpointed Felice Herrig, but in a division where the next two contenders for the title look set – Andrade has her shot in May while the winner of the upcoming Tatiana Suarez/Nina Ansaroff fight is likely next – it does make sense given both women are good-looking and both put on exciting fights.

They have somewhat similar styles, too – Kowalkiewicz loves to get inside and throw combinations from close range or the clinch, while Waterson is equally happy to put combinations together, albeit from a longer range than her Polish foe. ‘The Karate Hottie’ is happy to stay on the outside, stick and move and use her kicks to keep her opponents at bay – so can she do that to Kowalkiewicz?

It’s a bit of a tricky one to call. Kowalkiewicz was arguably the opponent who gave Joanna Jedrzejczyk the most problems before Rose Namajunas took her out – she knocked her down after all and had her in deep trouble for a while.

She’s an excellent technical striker and I’m not sure that Waterson will be able to keep her at distance – Herrig waded in and caught her with close-range shots at times and I’d suggest Kowalkiewicz is a slightly better striker than Felice.

The issue for Kowalkiewicz may be Waterson’s ground game. She might be nicknamed ‘The Karate Hottie’ but if anything, Waterson’s ground game has been more impressive in her UFC run.

She submitted Angela Magana and Paige VanZant, and also outworked Cortney Casey on the ground to take the decision in that fight. And she showed against VanZant that she’s quite happy to take the fight to the ground early, as she choked ’12 Gauge’ out in the first round. She was also able to hit a couple of takedowns on the fleet-footed Tecia Torres, too.

Kowalkiewicz meanwhile got herself into tons of trouble on the ground in her UFC debut against Randa Markos, and she was thoroughly outclassed and submitted by Claudia Gadelha in the other fight that we saw her taken down in.

That doesn’t bode well for her here in my opinion, as she’s got to get inside Waterson’s range to hurt her with strikes, and that could end up allowing Waterson to get hold of her for the takedown.

The longer Waterson remains standing with Kowalkiewicz, the trickier this fight becomes for her, but I don’t think ‘The Karate Hottie’ is a low-IQ fighter and I suspect she’ll look to strike from distance before surprising the Polish fighter with a takedown once she tries to get inside. And if Waterson gets into a dominant position, I think this one is over.

The Pick: Waterson via first round submission