UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks

#5 Paul Craig vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu

Can Scotland's Paul Craig overcome explosive newcomer Kennedy Nzechukwu?

Last time we saw Scotland’s Paul Craig, he was involved in a back-and-forth grappling match with Australian prospect Jimmy Crute – who was able to submit the Scotsman with a third-round kimura after being in trouble himself at points. The loss put Craig at 2-3 in the Octagon, and in all honesty, it’s hard to see him improving on that given the issues surrounding him.

The problem for Craig is that while he’s clearly an excellent grappler, he’s just not a top-level athlete, and that’s cost him against less experienced fighters like Tyson Pedro and Khalil Rountree, who both took ‘BearJew’ out with violent strikes. Sure, he submitted Magomed Ankalaev last year, but that was an all-time great comeback win and he’d been taking a beating up to that point.

Nzechukwu is a total wildcard really – footage on him is quite sparse outside of his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018, but it’s quite clear that unlike Craig, he is an explosive athlete who’s also huge for 205lbs. His head kick knockout of Dennis Bryant was pretty brutal, for instance, and it looks like he’ll have a big speed advantage against Craig too.

Sure, Craig could drag the Nigerian to the ground and maybe outgrapple him or catch him in a submission, but the problem is that he doesn’t have great takedowns and while Nzechukwu is relatively inexperienced, it isn’t like Craig is Demian Maia or Kron Gracie – he was TKO’d by Pedro while on the ground, after all.

In the end I just don’t think Craig wins this fight due to Nzechukwu’s speed and athletic advantage. Nzechukwu may well look fantastic here but if he does, it’s probably not a sign to rush him up the ranks as he’s too inexperienced, but I definitely think he’s got this one in the bag barring a major mistake from him probably stemming from ‘Octagon shock’.

The Pick: Nzechukwu via first round TKO