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#5 Francisco Trinaldo vs. Alexander Hernandez

Francisco Trinaldo is still improving despite being 40 years old

This is a classic fight between a prospect and a true veteran at 155lbs, as Alexander Hernandez is one of the younger fighters in the upper echelon of the division at 26, while Francisco Trinaldo is inexplicably still seemingly improving at the age of 40.

The winner of this one should find themselves entrenched in the top ten, meaning it’s one of the bigger fights on this card.

Hernandez burst onto the scene as a late replacement in 2018, stunning everyone by knocking out Beneil Dariush in seconds. His second fight proved he was more than just a knockout artist, when he outgrappled noted BJJ whiz Olivier Aubin-Mercier, but then he bit off a little more than he could chew against Donald Cerrone, who outwrestled and outstruck him en route to a second-round TKO.

Hernandez clearly has a ton of potential and he’s a great athlete, but the Cerrone fight proved that he’s not unbeatable, and getting over that could be a bit of a headache for a young prospect. Trinaldo isn’t as good as Cerrone I wouldn’t say, but he’s almost as dangerous in every area, meaning this is a tricky test for Hernandez.

‘Massaranduba’ made his way into the UFC via the first season of TUF: Brazil and after somehow competing as a Middleweight on that show, he dropped to 155lbs and initially struggled, largely because his powerful grappling didn’t work against bigger, better grapplers like Michael Chiesa and Gleison Tibau.

He’s still a tremendously strong man of course, but his early UFC run taught him that there could be physically stronger opponents out there.

Eventually, then, he changed up his game a little and became a far more effective pressure-kickboxer, favoring the body kick and the overhand left as his weapons of choice.

And since then he’s been on a hell of a run; his only losses since 2014 have come to Kevin Lee and James Vick and he’s won 9 fights in that time, including victories over Paul Felder, Evan Dunham, Jim Miller, and Yancy Medeiros.

This one should come down to the grappling, I think. If Trinaldo can stop Hernandez from taking him down as Lee, Chiesa and Vick were able to do, then I think he wins.

Only Vick – who had a far longer reach than Hernandez – has really beaten Trinaldo on the feet, and outside of that, the Brazilian was able to outstrike vaunted kickboxers like Felder, Ross Pearson and Chad Laprise using his power, pressure and heavy strikes.

The fact that Hernandez wilted so easily under the pressure that Cerrone brought to him makes me lean towards Trinaldo here; while Lee and Chiesa both outgrappled him I’d say that both men are better than Hernandez on the ground and it’s not like ‘Massaranduba’ is clueless on the mat either – he’s a BJJ black belt who has submitted strong grapplers before such as Luis Buscape.

Hernandez might’ve outgrappled Aubin-Mercier, but then he doesn’t bring the kind of pressure game that Trinaldo does.

It likely won’t be easy for ‘Massaranduba’ but I think he’ll do enough over the three rounds – landing the heavier strikes and perhaps getting some takedowns using his brute strength – to take a decision over the youngster.

The Pick: Trinaldo via unanimous decision