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#6 Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell

How much does Andrei Arlovski really have left in the tank?

It’s hard to believe that it’s now 11 years since these two first faced off under the ill-fated Affliction banner, but time evidently flies.

That fight saw Andrei Arlovski at the peak of his powers; a hugely athletic, surprisingly fast, hard-hitting Heavyweight who largely took the durable Ben Rothwell apart with his strikes, culminating in a third-round TKO. Since then, though, both men have been on long, winding paths and not necessarily good ones.

Arlovski’s questionable chin ended up catching up with him soon after the Rothwell win; he was knocked out by Fedor Emelianenko, Brett Rogers and Sergei Kharitonov, and most fans figured he was done.

A series of victories from 2011 to 2013 saw him surprisingly brought back to the UFC though, and he managed to inexplicably reel off 4 fights in a row to find himself in title contention.

A subsequent slide of 5 straight losses – including 3 TKO defeats – seemed to signal the real end of his career, but two wins then seemed to turn things around. He’s taken 4 defeats since then though, meaning this one should surely be the last chance saloon for him.

Arlovski is still relatively quick for a big man, but he’s not as sudden as he was in his prime, and his once-well rounded striking game has now seemingly been reduced to little more than a big right hand, with the odd takedown thrown in for good measure. Essentially, he’s been surviving using veteran wiles but little else in recent fights.

Rothwell meanwhile made his way to the UFC after that Affliction loss, and while he’s won 6 fights there – including impressive KOs of Alistair Overeem and Brendan Schaub and a wild submission of Josh Barnett – he’s also looked terrible at times, and has been banned twice for PED abuse.

At times he appears to be an excellent striker; he always has hit extremely hard, but he can be surprisingly fast with his combinations and is a ruthless finisher too.

But faced with better strikers he’s also looked horribly plodding and has a tendency to simply lumber forward and take punches in an attempt to land his own. That tendency led him to his most recent loss against Blagoy Ivanov, a slow-paced fight that didn’t really make either man look impressive.

A striker like Arlovski in his prime would simply eat this slower, plodding fighter for breakfast, but given Andrei’s deterioration in recent years, I find it hard to imagine that he could wing enough varied punches to keep Rothwell at bay without taking a big shot in response.

Rothwell is no world-beater but he’s definitely as good as the likes of Augusto Sakai and Shamil Abdurakhimov, both of whom recently defeated Arlovski. And given that Rothwell hits harder than both, well, you do the math.

The Pick: Rothwell via first round KO