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#3 Demian Maia vs. Anthony Rocco Martin

Can Demian Maia pick up another submission over Anthony Rocco Martin?

Although you’d have to say he’s been more successful than his smaller counterpart – gaining two UFC title shots over his 12-year Octagon stint – there are a lot of parallels between Demian Maia and Jussier Formiga. Both are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu wizards who work best primarily from back control, and neither man is the fastest or the best athlete in the UFC.

Maia is 41 now and last year, it looked like we were finally seeing the beginning of a downward spiral for the Brazilian. A failed title shot against Tyron Woodley in 2017 was followed by losses to Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman, and all three fights followed the same pattern; Maia was unable to get a takedown on the superior wrestler and was largely beaten up standing by a quicker, more explosive athlete.

He did manage to pull off a win in February, choking out Lyman Good in a vintage performance, and that hints at a simple fact about Maia: against fighters who aren’t good enough to avoid his takedown, even excellent athletes, he’s still essentially deadly. But if you can stop his takedown, he’ll gas out quickly and largely becomes a target.

The question here then is whether Anthony Rocco Martin is a good enough wrestler to stop the takedown, and also whether he’s smart enough to avoid grappling with Maia and keep the fight standing.

A jack-of-all-trades type, Martin has come into his own since a 2018 move to 170lbs. Once a hulking Lightweight, it was clear that the big weight cut was draining him far too much, meaning his gas tank and chin were both questionable at 155lbs. Those issues seem to have been solved at Welterweight, and since the move, he’s 4-0.

Maia is by far his toughest test to date, though. His other opponents all had glaring weaknesses, and while Maia does too, it’s a weakness that’s very hard to test for anyone but truly excellent wrestlers. Martin is a stout wrestler himself but let’s be honest, he isn’t in the same league as an Usman or a Covington.

Worryingly for me too, while he did comfortably outstrike grappling expert Sergio Moraes in March – showing an impressive output throughout the fight too considering Moraes’ unorthodox style and constant pressure – he also gave up a takedown in each round. That isn’t advisable against Maia, who is far more accomplished than Moraes when it comes to grappling in MMA.

Martin has the striking skill to win this fight but I’m not convinced he hits any harder than Usman or Woodley and so he’ll have to follow their blueprint if he wants the victory. I’m just not sold on him having the defensive wrestling skill to survive, though, and he isn’t a pressure fighter like Covington who will force Maia to empty his gas tank early.

I’m betting that Maia can get the takedowns that he needs here; even if he can’t submit Martin he’s skilled enough to simply keep his younger foe under control enough to gain a decision win. But it’s Demian Maia, so I’m going with another submission for him.

The Pick: Maia via second-round submission