UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez - Predictions and Picks

While some preliminary fights have been broadcast on the network, this Saturday marks the first time the UFC will present a full show in primetime on the ESPN channel, as UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez goes down live from Phoenix, Arizona.

It’s a major show with a pretty packed card; the main event speaks for itself really, while the undercard features a strong mix of hot prospects, veteran contenders and even former champions and title challengers. Oh, and a new representative of the legendary Gracie family is making his Octagon debut!

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez.

#1 Francis Ngannou vs. Cain Velasquez

Cain Velasquez hasn't fought since UFC 200 in July 2016

This one is simply a huge fight for the UFC’s Heavyweight division, as it could well decide the next title challenger – whether that means a fight against Daniel Cormier or a fight against someone like Stipe Miocic for the vacant title is another story entirely – and perhaps even the next champion.

Cain Velasquez, as has been documented plenty of times, hasn’t fought now since his UFC 200 win over Travis Browne. That came all the way back in July 2016, as various injuries and an apparent contract negotiation have kept him on the shelf. He’s supposedly as healthy as he’s ever been now, but how much of that is believable is a mystery. We’ve heard it plenty of times before and at 36 years old now, it’s hard to imagine that he’s finally managed to stop his body falling apart.

When he was healthy, Velasquez was probably the greatest Heavyweight the UFC has ever seen, and arguably still represents the ultimate evolution of the division – a world-class wrestler with incredible striking skills and both speed and stamina to match, essentially a souped-up version of the great Fedor Emelianenko tailored perfectly to the UFC’s Octagon.

Velasquez simply destroyed anyone in his path from his 2008 debut through to his 2010 title win against Brock Lesnar, and answered any questions surrounding his chin and punching power with rousing wins like his knockouts of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Ben Rothwell. But injuries began to rear their head shortly after, and he spent a year on the shelf before dropping his title to Junior Dos Santos upon his return.

He regained the title from JDS in 2012 and then continued to dominate the division, but injuries once again sidelined him throughout 2014, and a banged-up version of his former self was dethroned by Fabricio Werdum in 2015. And since then, he’s only fought that once, a stirring win over Browne that gave flashbacks of his 2008-13 dominance.

Francis Ngannou meanwhile debuted in December 2015 and immediately had fans suggesting that he could be the future of the division. A hulking 6’5”, 254lbs of apparently pure muscle, ‘The Predator’ destroyed everyone in front of him with vicious striking power, taking out 5 opponents before near-murdering veteran Alistair Overeem to gain a title shot.

But then things went wrong. He blew up badly when he couldn’t score an early KO in his title match with Stipe Miocic and fell victim to Miocic’s superior wrestling and cardio, and following that – the first loss of his UFC career – he looked terrible in a summer fight with Derrick Lewis, barely throwing a punch in a ridiculously gunshy showing.

Suggestions of his total downfall proved to be false, though, as he took out dangerous wrestler Curtis Blaydes with strikes in just 45 seconds in November. It was essentially a return to the “old” Ngannou of his pre-Miocic fights. So can he do the same to Cain Velasquez on Saturday?

For me, this all comes down to one thing, and that’s whether Cain looks anything like his former self. In his prime, Cain was simply a nightmare opponent for Ngannou; if Ngannou thought that Miocic’s cardio and wrestling were tricky to deal with, he’s got no idea – Prime Velasquez was on another level entirely in both areas and there’s no way he’d have let a gassed foe like Ngannou reach the final buzzer as Miocic did.

But how much of that Cain still remains is a total question mark. He looked brilliant against Browne, admittedly, but even that was almost 3 years ago and he’s been through a serious back injury – something debilitating to even the healthiest athletes – since. And while 36 isn’t old for a Heavyweight – Alistair Overeem, for instance, is 38 and still looks fresh – few fighters have been through as many serious injuries as Velasquez.

It’s also notable that outside of the Browne fight, the previous times in which Cain returned from long layoffs (13 months between 10/2010 and 11/2011 and 20 months between 10/2013 and 06/2015) marked his only two losses in the Octagon, as his style, which relies heavily on an ability to push an insane pace, doesn’t lend itself well to ring rust.

Stylistically, Velasquez remains a horrible opponent for Ngannou, but then again outside of the Miocic fight, the best wrestler the Frenchman had faced was Curtis Blaydes – and Ngannou was able to stuff Blaydes’ takedowns and beat him twice.

I’d love to pick Cain here – it’d make for a great story and he’s my second-favourite Heavyweight of all time behind Overeem – but for me it’s just a risk too far and I’m not comfortable in taking a guy who’s not fought since 2016, when he relies so much on an ability to push the pace. I’m going with Ngannou to take him out ala JDS in their first fight.

The Pick: Ngannou via first round KO

#2 Paul Felder vs. James Vick

Can Paul Felder get inside the long reach of James Vick?

This feels like a curious choice for a co-main event to me; both Lightweights are coming off losses, Paul Felder to Mike Perry at 170lbs and James Vick to Justin Gaethje in what was one of 2018’s most violent knockouts. Prior to that though, they had been on solid runs – Vick had won 4 in a row and Felder 3, and a win for either man would probably propel them into top ten contention.

It’s also an interesting one in that I’d argue neither man has quite reached their potential just yet despite showing flashes of greatness. A veteran of 2012’s TUF 15, all of Vick’s Octagon success has been based on his freakish length and reach. One of the tallest 155lbers on the roster at 6’4”, Vick has either kept his victims at distance with his jabs and kicks, or used his long arms to catch his foes in chokes such as guillotines and D’Arces.

Unfortunately for Vick, like his Heavyweight equivalent Stefan Struve, his chin and striking defence aren’t the best, and it’s notable that both of his UFC losses have come by knockout – and violent knockout at that. Essentially, if you can catch Vick cleanly, you can almost definitely knock him out. Admittedly though, it’s becoming harder to catch him – strikers like Francisco Trinaldo and Abel Trujillo failed where Gaethje succeeded.

Felder meanwhile has been competing in the UFC since late 2014. A forgettable decision win over Jason Saggo was followed by a beautiful spinning backfist knockout of Danny Castillo – and that knockout may have hindered Felder rather than helped him, as ‘The Irish Dragon’ was pushed into fights he wasn’t ready for against Edson Barboza and Ross Pearson, both of whom beat him via decision.

Since then though, Felder has bounced back nicely, and he’s won 5 of his last 7, with his only losses coming to the much larger Perry and the underrated Trinaldo. An excellent striker, Felder’s successes are built on a base of heavy leg kicks, quick combinations and a nice dose of traditional martial arts. He’s also somewhat underrated on the ground – as Stevie Ray found out when Felder bludgeoned him with elbows at Fight Night 113 in 2017.

For me, this comes down to whether Felder’s a skilled enough striker to get inside Vick’s reach and do damage inside, and I think he might be. I can’t see either man outright going for a takedown – I’d say Felder is the superior wrestler, but to tackle Vick down and risk going into his guard would be very dangerous.

I’m guessing Vick will attempt to keep Felder on the end of his jab, but Felder’s leg kicks should allow him to get inside, and that’s where I think he’ll be able to do his damage. And as Vick’s already coming off a nasty knockout and has shown issues with his chin before, I think ‘The Irish Dragon’ can capitalise and turn out his lights again.

The Pick: Felder via second-round TKO

#3 Cortney Casey vs. Cynthia Calvillo

Cortney Casey has developed into one of the Strawweight division's toughest gatekeepers

Since her 2015 UFC debut, Cortney Casey has become a key player in the Strawweight division – not so much as a genuine title contender, but as an ultra-tough gatekeeper. Every division needs gatekeepers and Casey is one of the best in the promotion.

She’s 4-5 in the Octagon thus far, but with different judges that could easily be 7-2 – realistically, the only opponents to clearly beat her were Claudia Gadelha and Joanne Calderwood.

That makes her the perfect foe for Cynthia Calvillo, who is looking for another run at the elite of the division after failing in her first step up in 2017 against former champion Carla Esparza. She debuted earlier that year by submitting Amanda Cooper and immediately rose up the ranks, fighting like a female Nick Diaz with a volume-based striking game to supplement a dangerous submission game on the ground.

The key to this fight could be whether Calvillo decides it’s better to strike or to grapple with Casey. Despite not really having a long reach – 64”, which is actually 3” shorter than Casey – Calvillo notably tends to use what I’d consider a “long” striking style, which was on show when she defeated Joanne Calderwood in the summer of 2017.

Against Casey, that could prove to be difficult, as ‘Cast Iron’ has shown notable boxing skills in her previous fights and was able to tag excellent strikers like Felice Herrig, Calderwood and Michelle Waterson although she was beaten by all 3.

But if she looks to grapple, she could be onto a winner. Casey has shown stout wrestling and she’s looked good from the top position against opponents like Angela Hill, but she was taken down quite easily by Waterson, Calderwood and Gadelha in those fights. Calvillo struggled to match Esparza’s grappling, but Esparza is an outstanding wrestler, and against other opponents, Calvillo displayed some excellent takedowns.

More to the point, she’s incredibly dangerous with submissions – particularly if she manages to take the back of her opponent. If Casey finds herself on her back with Calvillo in a dominant position, she could well be in serious trouble.

I’m going with Calvillo here – I don’t think Casey will make it easy for her, particularly if she chooses to exchange punches with ‘Cast Iron’, but at some point, she’ll begin to go for takedowns and I think she’ll outwork Casey on the ground from there.

The Pick: Calvillo via unanimous decision

#4 Alex Caceres vs. Kron Gracie

Can Kron Gracie live up to the hype in his UFC debut?

The Gracie family are undoubtedly considered MMA royalty by fans of the sport, but the truth is that nobody carrying the Gracie name has succeeded in the UFC since Royce first departed the Octagon back in the mid-1990s. Since then we’ve seen Rolles and Roger both fail miserably in their attempts to usher in a new era for the Gracie name, while the aged veteran Renzo was also destroyed in his lone UFC appearance.

Kron Gracie will now attempt to change all of that. The youngest son of the legendary Rickson Gracie, it comes as no surprise to learn that Kron is a whiz in grappling. A black belt in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he won the gold medal in the 2013 edition of the prestigious Abu Dhabi grappling tournament and has a long list of other grappling achievements to his name.

But he’s no rookie in MMA, either. Sure, he hasn’t fought since December 2016, but when he did fight, he defeated longtime Japanese veterans Hideo Tokoro and Tatsuya Kawajiri, good victories by anyone’s standards. And he didn’t just use his BJJ, either – against Kawajiri, in particular, he looked excellent standing, working over ‘The Crusher’ with boxing combinations from the clinch and from the outside.

Training with the Diaz brothers and Gilbert Melendez in Northern California, could Kron really be the Gracie Messiah in the UFC we’ve waited for the last two decades for? We should find out – sort of – as he faces Alex Caceres this weekend.

Caceres – AKA Bruce Leeroy – has somehow been in the UFC now for 8 years, putting together 19 fights in the Octagon over that time. 10-9 in the Octagon, he doesn’t have the greatest record, but when you actually see him fight, it makes total sense. Basically, he’s always had a lot of potential and at times he’s shown glimpses of brilliance – but he’s also thoroughly inconsistent.

That means that great showings like his one against Cole Miller could easily be followed by something awful – like his poor loss to Jason Knight, for instance. One fight it looks like he’s ready for an elite opponent, and the next he looks on the verge of being cut from the UFC.

That inconsistency is what makes this fight tough to pick. Caceres is clearly far more experienced than Kron – he’s got more than 6 times the fights of Gracie – but when you never know what you’re going to get from the guy, it’s really difficult to decide whether he can beat someone whose skill set seems basically straightforward.

The fact that Caceres has always been happy to grapple regardless of the opponent is the main reason why I’m picking Kron. Gracie should be probably the best grappler Caceres has ever faced, and ‘Bruce Leeroy’ already has 6 losses by submission on his ledger. I expect Kron to add his 7th this weekend.

The Pick: Gracie via first round submission

#5 Vicente Luque vs. Bryan Barbarena

Vicente Luque is one of the UFC's most ruthless finishers

A tough, blue-collar fighter who’s proven incredibly hard to finish over his 5-year UFC career, Bryan Barberena rose to fame in 2016 after defeating the heavily pushed Sage Northcutt via arm triangle choke on one of the UFC’s big Fox shows. A win over Warlley Alves followed and suggested he could climb the ranks, but losses to Colby Covington and Leon Edwards have since put paid to that idea.

Like the gritty Darren Elkins, Barberena is happy to exchange from inside the clinch, on the ground and on his feet. Not the best athlete, Barberena can be hurt by strikes but it’s proven practically impossible to finish, and if you can’t get him out of there then he’ll keep on coming like a bearded terminator.

Vicente Luque then is an interesting test for him as more than anything, he’s been an absolutely ruthless finisher since his Octagon debut in 2015. Currently 7-2 in the UFC, Luque has finished all of his opponents by either knockout or submission, and the only times he’s been the distance, he was beaten. Those losses though came against a very strong wrestler (the since-released Michael Graves) and the streaking Leon Edwards, who also beat Barbarena when they fought.

For me, the big issue for Barbarena here comes from the fact that while Luque is a vicious finisher like Alves – who Barbarena outlasted – he’s also no stranger to a gutter-war and doesn’t tend to slow down as Warlley does. His insane brawl against Hayder Hassan on TUF showed this, and since then he’s improved tenfold.

I just don’t see Barberena grinding Luque out in this one and I suspect his tendency to get hurt early on will doom him. Luque can probably beat Barbarena in all areas, but I think he’ll probably hurt him standing before finishing him off with a choke variant once the fight hits the ground, continuing his impressive run of violence.

The Pick: Luque via first round submission

#6 Andre Fili vs. Myles Jury

Myles Jury is looking to get back on the winning path against Andre Fili

It’s almost hard to believe now, but in 2014, Myles Jury was seen as a potential 155lbs title contender. After taking out veterans Diego Sanchez and Takanori Gomi, a fight with Donald Cerrone was his chance to break into the elite – but he was comfortably beaten and then dropped to 145lbs. A disappointing loss to Charles Oliveira followed, but Jury righted the ship with a pair of wins – only to then get destroyed by Chad Mendes last summer.

Andre Fili meanwhile has been around since 2013, alternating wins and losses in the Featherweight division until he finally put together two wins in a row by beating Artem Lobov and Dennis Bermudez. But the Bermudez win was heavily controversial, and his next fight saw him beaten by Michael Johnson. A member of Team Alpha Male, ‘Touchy Fili’ has always shown potential, but his defensive struggles have always plagued him, both in grappling and on the feet.

This one should be a fun fight to watch as Fili’s wild offense might mesh well with Jury’s more straight-ahead style, but despite Mendes crushing him last July, I’m leaning towards Jury here. I just can’t trust a fighter as inconsistent as Fili, and in particular, I think Jury’s got enough stamina and toughness to simply grind out a win over his flashier opponent.

It could be a controversial one as I wouldn’t be surprised to see the big moments in the fight belong to Fili, but I think Jury will outwork him and take a decision.

The Pick: Jury via unanimous decision

#7 Preliminary Bouts: ESPN card

Aljamain Sterling headlines the prelim card against Jimmie Rivera

Heading up the ESPN prelims is a fight which could easily have been the co-main event here; it’s certainly the fight on this card with the most title implications outside of Ngannou/Velasquez. At 135lbs, Aljamain Sterling takes on fellow New Yorker Jimmie Rivera. Both men have well-rounded skills and are coming off big wins – Rivera over John Dodson, Sterling over Cody Stamann – but I like Sterling’s superior athleticism and grappling to pull him through here despite Rivera having a likely advantage on the feet. Sterling via tight decision – maybe a split – is my pick.

Also at Bantamweight, Benito Lopez takes on Manny Bermudez. Lopez hasn’t fought since December 2017 but is unbeaten at 9-0, while Bermudez is also unbeaten at 13-0 (2-0 UFC) with a ludicrous 10 submissions. For me, Bermudez is one of the most dangerous prospects in the division, and so I’m taking him to tap out Lopez on Saturday.

At Flyweight, a future contender could be crowned as Andrea Lee takes on Ashlee Evans-Smith. This could be a fun fight as both women love to strike, particularly Lee, but I worry about her against a larger foe that is notably violent with ground strikes. After seeing Lee grounded rather easily at points in her debut, I’m taking Evans-Smith via a ground-and-pound based decision here.

Finally, at Lightweight, Scott Holtzman faces Nik Lentz in a battle of grinders. Despite being 5-2 in the UFC Holtzman’s career in the Octagon has largely been forgettable. Lentz meanwhile is probably coming to the end of his career after almost a decade of UFC action, but he still doesn’t tend to lose to anyone but very dangerous contenders, and so I think he’s got enough to grind out a win over Holtzman, probably by decision.

#8 Early Preliminary Bouts: ESPN+ card

Does former champ Renan Barao have anything to offer any more?

Former UFC Bantamweight champion Renan Barao headlines the Early Prelim card, showing how far he’s fallen since his title loss in 2014. Opponent Luke Sanders clearly isn’t a world-beater, as his losses to the likes of Rani Yahya and Andre Soukhamthath have proven, but I suspect Barao is so shot that he simply can’t compete with a UFC-level opponent at this stage. Sanders via decision – or late TKO – is my pick.

At Strawweight, former title challenger Jessica Penne takes on fellow veteran Jodie Esquibel. Both women are crying out for a win, as Esquibel lost her first 2 UFC fights while Penne hasn’t won since 2014, but I worry than Penne’s 2015 loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk broke her as a competitor and so I’m going with Esquibel via decision.

Finally, another Strawweight fight opens proceedings, as Aleksandra Albu – an Instagram favourite amongst fans – takes on TUF veteran Emily Whitmire. Albu looked good in her last fight – a 2017 win over Kailin Curran – and I’m not sure that her layoff will affect her against Whitmire, who like Albu lacks experience. I’m taking Albu via decision here.