UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez - Predictions and Picks

#2 Paul Felder vs. James Vick

Can Paul Felder get inside the long reach of James Vick?

This feels like a curious choice for a co-main event to me; both Lightweights are coming off losses, Paul Felder to Mike Perry at 170lbs and James Vick to Justin Gaethje in what was one of 2018’s most violent knockouts. Prior to that though, they had been on solid runs – Vick had won 4 in a row and Felder 3, and a win for either man would probably propel them into top ten contention.

It’s also an interesting one in that I’d argue neither man has quite reached their potential just yet despite showing flashes of greatness. A veteran of 2012’s TUF 15, all of Vick’s Octagon success has been based on his freakish length and reach. One of the tallest 155lbers on the roster at 6’4”, Vick has either kept his victims at distance with his jabs and kicks, or used his long arms to catch his foes in chokes such as guillotines and D’Arces.

Unfortunately for Vick, like his Heavyweight equivalent Stefan Struve, his chin and striking defence aren’t the best, and it’s notable that both of his UFC losses have come by knockout – and violent knockout at that. Essentially, if you can catch Vick cleanly, you can almost definitely knock him out. Admittedly though, it’s becoming harder to catch him – strikers like Francisco Trinaldo and Abel Trujillo failed where Gaethje succeeded.

Felder meanwhile has been competing in the UFC since late 2014. A forgettable decision win over Jason Saggo was followed by a beautiful spinning backfist knockout of Danny Castillo – and that knockout may have hindered Felder rather than helped him, as ‘The Irish Dragon’ was pushed into fights he wasn’t ready for against Edson Barboza and Ross Pearson, both of whom beat him via decision.

Since then though, Felder has bounced back nicely, and he’s won 5 of his last 7, with his only losses coming to the much larger Perry and the underrated Trinaldo. An excellent striker, Felder’s successes are built on a base of heavy leg kicks, quick combinations and a nice dose of traditional martial arts. He’s also somewhat underrated on the ground – as Stevie Ray found out when Felder bludgeoned him with elbows at Fight Night 113 in 2017.

For me, this comes down to whether Felder’s a skilled enough striker to get inside Vick’s reach and do damage inside, and I think he might be. I can’t see either man outright going for a takedown – I’d say Felder is the superior wrestler, but to tackle Vick down and risk going into his guard would be very dangerous.

I’m guessing Vick will attempt to keep Felder on the end of his jab, but Felder’s leg kicks should allow him to get inside, and that’s where I think he’ll be able to do his damage. And as Vick’s already coming off a nasty knockout and has shown issues with his chin before, I think ‘The Irish Dragon’ can capitalise and turn out his lights again.

The Pick: Felder via second-round TKO