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#3 Cortney Casey vs. Cynthia Calvillo

Cortney Casey has developed into one of the Strawweight division's toughest gatekeepers

Since her 2015 UFC debut, Cortney Casey has become a key player in the Strawweight division – not so much as a genuine title contender, but as an ultra-tough gatekeeper. Every division needs gatekeepers and Casey is one of the best in the promotion.

She’s 4-5 in the Octagon thus far, but with different judges that could easily be 7-2 – realistically, the only opponents to clearly beat her were Claudia Gadelha and Joanne Calderwood.

That makes her the perfect foe for Cynthia Calvillo, who is looking for another run at the elite of the division after failing in her first step up in 2017 against former champion Carla Esparza. She debuted earlier that year by submitting Amanda Cooper and immediately rose up the ranks, fighting like a female Nick Diaz with a volume-based striking game to supplement a dangerous submission game on the ground.

The key to this fight could be whether Calvillo decides it’s better to strike or to grapple with Casey. Despite not really having a long reach – 64”, which is actually 3” shorter than Casey – Calvillo notably tends to use what I’d consider a “long” striking style, which was on show when she defeated Joanne Calderwood in the summer of 2017.

Against Casey, that could prove to be difficult, as ‘Cast Iron’ has shown notable boxing skills in her previous fights and was able to tag excellent strikers like Felice Herrig, Calderwood and Michelle Waterson although she was beaten by all 3.

But if she looks to grapple, she could be onto a winner. Casey has shown stout wrestling and she’s looked good from the top position against opponents like Angela Hill, but she was taken down quite easily by Waterson, Calderwood and Gadelha in those fights. Calvillo struggled to match Esparza’s grappling, but Esparza is an outstanding wrestler, and against other opponents, Calvillo displayed some excellent takedowns.

More to the point, she’s incredibly dangerous with submissions – particularly if she manages to take the back of her opponent. If Casey finds herself on her back with Calvillo in a dominant position, she could well be in serious trouble.

I’m going with Calvillo here – I don’t think Casey will make it easy for her, particularly if she chooses to exchange punches with ‘Cast Iron’, but at some point, she’ll begin to go for takedowns and I think she’ll outwork Casey on the ground from there.

The Pick: Calvillo via unanimous decision