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#2 Strawweight: Claudia Gadelha vs. Angela Hill

Claudia Gadelha was once considered the #2 Strawweight in the world

It’s been an interesting couple of years for Gadelha, once considered the #2 fighter in the Strawweight division. ‘Claudinha’ came up short in her title challenge against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but her wins over Cortney Casey and Karolina Kowalkiewicz meant that she retained a high rank. Since then though, she’s slipped somewhat.

A loss to Jessica Andrade was hardly shameful; Gadelha took the fight to her fellow Brazilian and showed better striking than she’d done before, but was outgunned in terms of power. Her win over Carla Esparza though was less convincing, and her loss to Nina Ansaroff was disappointing before a win over Randa Markos seemed to get her back on track.

However, that win wasn’t so much a show of improvement as it was a show that for ‘Claudinha’, things remain the same. Essentially, she’s a phenomenal grappler from the top position and has more than adequate technical striking, meaning she’s likely to beat the majority of her division.

However, using her striking can cause her to gas out – as she did against Esparza and Ansaroff – and if she then can’t get an opponent down, she tends to struggle, particularly down the stretch.

Essentially then, the roadmap to beating the Brazilian is to stop her takedown and attempt to push the pace early on, hoping that she’ll run out of steam and be open to being picked apart on the feet. So can Angela Hill do that?

Personally, I doubt it. ‘Overkill’ is on the best run of her UFC career – a 3-fight win streak – and so she definitely deserves this step up, but it must be said that ever since she emerged into the promotion in 2014, she hasn’t really evolved all that much.

She’s still an excellent striker, both from range and from close quarters, but on the ground, while she’s become better from a defensive standpoint, she still has a tendency to struggle. More to the point, her takedown defense still isn’t great – she’s simply too willing to let an opponent close her down due to her own skill in the clinch.

With all that in mind, I think this is probably Gadelha’s fight to lose. She’s tough enough to withstand punishment from Hill – who doesn’t hit as hard as someone like Andrade – and if she can get inside and get ‘Overkill’ down, the former Invicta champion is almost definitely in a world of trouble.

Gadelha will need to be careful not to empty her gas tank too early if it turns out that she can’t get Hill down, but I don’t think that’ll be the case and if she can put ‘Overkill’ on her back then I think she’s likely to finish her off as she did Kowalkiewicz a couple of years ago.

The Pick: Gadelha via first round submission