UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris - Predictions and Picks

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Fan favourite Matt Brown headlines this weekend's prelim card

It appears that Saturday’s prelims will be shown on the ESPN+ streaming service for US viewers; they’re not heavy on name value but there will definitely be a handful of stars in action that most fans should recognise.

One such star is Welterweight Matt Brown, who returned from retirement in December to knock out Ben Saunders. He faces undefeated Miguel Baeza, who picked up a UFC debut win in October. Baeza looked good in that fight, but despite Brown’s age – 39 now – this is still a massive step up for ‘Caramel Thunder’.

I suspect this will be an ultra-violent fight – and you can’t count Baeza out as Brown doesn’t weather punishment all that well – but in the end I’m going with ‘The Immortal’ by TKO.

At Middleweight, Kevin Holland faces off with Anthony Hernandez. Holland most recently saw a 3-fight win streak snapped in a bit of an upset against Brendan Allen, while ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez picked up his first UFC win in August over Jun Yong Park. This is a tricky fight to pick as Hernandez isn’t all that proven at the UFC level, while Holland has been inconsistent at best. I’m leaning towards Holland by decision, but this one could go either way.

At Featherweight, Georgia’s Giga Chikadze takes on Mike Davis. Davis looked good in his previous fight, but then he was facing a man in Thomas Gifford who has simply terrible striking defense. Chikadze meanwhile is very wild, particularly on the feet, but is a great athlete and can push a nasty pace. I’m taking the Georgian by decision here as I feel like he can outwork Davis down the stretch.

Veteran Cortney Casey returns at Flyweight to take on Italy’s Mara Romero Borella in what should be an intriguing fight. Casey hasn’t fought in well over a year since her loss to Cynthia Calvillo, but despite her weak record (8-7) she’s a very hard-nosed fighter who’s only ever lost to genuine contenders.

However, she’s never fought up at 125lbs before, and worryingly, her takedown defense was extremely porous in the majority of her fights. That could play into the hands of Borella, a grappler by trade who’s lost her last two fights. If Casey can keep this one vertical it’s a winnable fight for her, but against a bigger opponent I worry that she won’t be able to stop the takedown, and so I’m taking Borella via decision.

At Featherweight, longtime fan favourite Darren Elkins is back, taking on Nate Landwehr. Elkins is on a 3-fight losing streak, but is still as tough as nails and even at the age of 35, his hard-nosed style will be tricky to stop. I simply can’t see Landwehr – who was knocked out in his UFC debut earlier in 2020 – being capable of stopping Elkins, and so it’s more likely that ‘The Damage’ will grind out another win – likely by late TKO.

Finally, two Heavyweights clash as Don’Tale Mayes faces debutant Rodrigo Nascimento. Nascimento isn’t the biggest Heavyweight – in fact, he looks like he could make 205lbs – but he does appear to be a highly skilled grappler, with 5 submissions on his 7-0 ledger. Mayes appears to be the better athlete, but he was submitted by a striker in Ciryl Gane in his UFC debut which doesn’t bode well. I’m going with Nascimento via tapout in this one.