UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman - Predictions and Picks

The UFC returns to ESPN this week for a rare Friday night show taking place in Boston, Massachusetts. It’s a pretty solid card too, with a potential Light-Heavyweight title eliminator in the main event and a rematch of UFC Fight Night 159’s Yair Rodriguez vs. Jeremy Stephens main event right underneath.

Thus far we’ve seen the UFC’s efforts on the ‘big’ ESPN channel provide plenty of excitement – so hopefully, this, the sixth show on the network, will also deliver.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs Weidman.

#1 Dominick Reyes vs. Chris Weidman

Will Chris Weidman's move to 205lbs pay off?

Some fans might scoff at this idea given Weidman hasn’t won a fight since July 2017, but there’s a hell of a lot at stake here in the 205lbs division as it’s totally conceivable that the winner could next face Jon Jones for the UFC Light Heavyweight title.

This is a bit of a tangent but I feel like it says a lot about Jones – in a positive way for once! – and how he’s willing to take on all comers at any time, meaning there’s rarely a bottle-neck of contenders at 205lbs as there tends to be in divisions where the UFC champion is more picky about who they face.

At any rate, this is interesting matchmaking because while Reyes is very established at 205lbs, with wins over the likes of Volkan Oezdemir and Ovince St. Preux, it’s Weidman’s first fight at the weight in his UFC career and yet he still represents the biggest name ‘The Devastator’ has faced yet. Should that matter? In all honesty, perhaps not.

When he debuted in the UFC back in June 2017 with a squash win over Joachim Christensen, I always did say that Reyes had the tools to make it to the top of the division. At 6’4” he’s one of the bigger men in the division, and his 77” reach makes him one of the longer, too.

Thus far in his UFC career, we’ve basically seen a full arsenal from him. He’s shown excellent striking from a technical standpoint, using his reach to full advantage, he’s a high-level athlete and while we haven’t seen too much of his grappling, he was able to fend off the wrestling of St. Preux largely by simply keeping on the move.

On paper considering the skillsets of both men, I’d actually class this as a pretty horrible style match for Reyes; Weidman actually has a longer reach at 78”, he’s equally adept at throwing out long strikes although defensively, he’s never been great, and in terms of grappling he’s a tremendous wrestler and absolutely scary grappler on the ground.

Essentially, Weidman’s actually got a lot of tools that would make you suspect he could give Jon Jones a tricky fight – but of course, there’s a major caveat. Realistically, he’s taken an insane amount of damage over the past few years, starting from the beating he took at the hands of Luke Rockhold when he lost the UFC Middleweight title to him back in December 2015.

Since then Weidman’s been stopped violently by Yoel Romero and Ronaldo Souza, and he also took a large amount of damage from Gegard Mousasi and Kelvin Gastelum although neither man outright knocked him out. At 35 years old having taken so much damage and suffered so many injuries, you’ve got to question exactly how much ‘The All-American’ has left.

I’ve said this before but I actually think Weidman might be the biggest USADA victim on the UFC roster – but not because he was ever on PEDs, but more because he was a big weight cutter at 185lbs who likely used an IV to rehydrate himself. Once the IV became a no-go, Chris Weidman was forced to lose a lot of size in order to make the Middleweight limit, which in turn lost him the strength advantage he once had over many opponents.

In reality, he perhaps should’ve moved to 205lbs after the Rockhold loss; his lack of explosive speed wouldn’t have been so much of an issue against bigger fighters and he could easily have packed a little more muscle onto his frame and been a very imposing 205lber. He still might pull that off, but I’m always wary of picking a fighter who’s become so much easier to knock out.

For me, prime Weidman probably would’ve taken this fight due to his long reach, wrestling and powerful grappling, but I just don’t trust that even if he takes a couple of rounds with that grappling, unless he can outright tap Reyes out, that he won’t be badly hurt and finished at some point. Therefore, I’m taking Dominick Reyes to become the latest man to finish Weidman – earning a shot at Jon Jones in the process.

The Pick: Reyes via third-round TKO

#2 Yair Rodriguez vs. Jeremy Stephens

Everyone will be hoping the rematch between Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens ends differently

Firstly then, kudos to the UFC for turning this fight around far more quickly than I’d expected. For those who’ve missed the past couple of months of UFC programming, Rodriguez and Stephens faced off in the main event of Fight Night 159 in Mexico City last month, only for the fight to end in a No Contest after a handful of seconds following an inadvertent eye poke from Rodriguez.

Since then, what was a seemingly respectful rivalry has been replaced with some serious bad blood; essentially, Rodriguez felt that Stephens was making a meal of the eye poke and took the easy way out, while Stephens obviously disagreed. Personally, I’m with Stephens – I just don’t see what he would gain from faking an eye injury in that manner.

At any rate, we’re not even a month removed from the original fight, so I’m glad the UFC are letting them settle the issue here. Last time around, I picked Rodriguez to win this fight, feeling that while his wildness often gets him into trouble, he’s also got the fundamentals to fight a smart fight and Stephens had faced issues in dealing with longer, lankier fighters like ‘El Pantera’ before.

The caveat to that, however, was that I felt that Rodriguez would only be able to win in that way if he could avoid any brawling exchanges with the hard-hitting Stephens. That’s not to say that Rodriguez can’t out brawl opponents – his chin is obviously rock-solid based on his wild fight with Chan Sung Jung and he hits hard himself – but by doing that he’d be stepping into Stephens’ wheelhouse.

With the bad blood now brewing though, can Rodriguez really avoid simply heading to the center of the cage and throwing down with ‘Lil Heathen’? I’m not so sure. Mexican fighters traditionally pride themselves on their fighting spirit and Rodriguez is certainly no different, but to me, that just wouldn’t be the smart thing to do.

With that said, it does feel like Stephens is the more aggrieved party coming into this one and that means he’s going to be more likely to come in as the angrier fighter, which means he’s more likely to be swinging haymakers that might miss and allow Rodriguez to counter on him.

I’m going with Rodriguez here; I picked him last time and it’s not like a lot has changed since then, and even if he does get drawn into a brawl, I suspect if he gets hurt he might well be able to go back to a more disciplined gameplan and if that’s the case he’s definitely got the skills to pick Stephens apart.

The Pick: Rodriguez via unanimous decision

#3 Greg Hardy vs. Ben Sosoli

Greg Hardy will be fighting his 4th UFC bout in 2019 this weekend

This will be Hardy’s fourth UFC fight this year, and while the former NFL player has clearly been working to improve his skills at American Top Team, I’m still not really sold on him as a fighter and I’m not sure why the UFC are content to continue this experiment given his controversial past and the fact that the fans clearly don’t like him.

He struggled badly against journeyman Allen Crowder in his Octagon debut back in January and while he’s picked up two wins since then, both were questionable; Dmitry Smoliakov simply folded under the first hint of pressure while I felt his fight with Juan Adams was stopped too early as Adams was working for a takedown when the referee called a TKO in favor of Hardy.

Of course, Hardy is a tremendous athlete; a huge man at the 265lbs Heavyweight limit, he’s deceptively fast for his size and hits extremely hard too. His defensive wrestling looked appalling in the Crowder fight, but judging by the Adams fight he has been working on it, although I can’t imagine him having prime Mirko Cro Cop takedown defense yet.

Crowder also exposed a couple of other weaknesses, namely questionable cardio, as well as a lack of defense in terms of striking too. Will Australia’s Sosoli be the man to test that? In all honesty, probably not. He’s also a big Heavyweight at 265lbs, but to say he’s less than chiseled would be an understatement.

More worryingly for him, from the footage I’ve seen he’s a highly sloppy brawler who eats a lot of punches to land his own, and while he throws with power, it doesn’t look like he’s anywhere near as fast or hard-hitting as Hardy. Could he out grapple the former NFL man? Probably not; judging by his appearance on TUF 28 his wrestling is negligible, too.

Hardy will come unstuck at some point, once the UFC matches him with a higher level fighter, but no offense to Sosoli, I don’t buy him as that guy right now. This should be another squash match in favor of the former NFL man and I doubt the fans will enjoy it.

The Pick: Hardy via first-round KO

#4 Joe Lauzon vs. Jonathan Pearce

Joe Lauzon has been in the UFC for 13 long years

It’s hard to believe that we’re now 13 years removed from the day when fresh-faced youngster Joe Lauzon exploded onto the UFC scene with a huge upset knockout of former UFC Lightweight Champion Jens Pulver, but time flies I guess.

Since then, Lauzon has put on a crazy 26 UFC fights, and has picked up a total of 15 post-fight bonus cheques, with a record 6 ‘Submission of the Night’ awards. Unfortunately, time stands still for no man and the Boston native is currently on a 3-fight losing streak. Realistically, he hasn’t won a fight clearly since his 2016 victory over Diego Sanchez, and more disturbingly, his durability now seems to be thoroughly shot.

This is his chance to right the ship; he’s been away from action since April 2018 in a much-needed break, and he’s faced with a man who has far less experience than he does, UFC debutant Jonathan Pearce. ‘JSP’ has just 10 fights to his name, and while he’s 7-3 and on a four-fight win streak, nothing stands out to suggest he’s ready for the top level just yet.

Footage on Pearce shows an aggressive fighter; he’s a clean striker who clearly hits hard, as evidenced by the 5 KO’s/TKO’s on his record. Pearce doesn’t have any submission wins on his ledger but he doesn’t appear to be a terrible grappler per se, although it’s hard to imagine him being on the same level as Lauzon.

This should, theoretically, be a winnable fight for ‘J-Lau’ as Pearce has so little experience in comparison and Lauzon will be fighting in front of his hometown crowd in Boston. But with that said, rewind to 2006 and the Lauzon/Pulver fight sounded like a winnable one for ‘Lil Evil’ due to Lauzon’s lack of experience at the top level – and we all remember what happened there.

I’ve always been a fan of Lauzon but I just think he’d be better off retired at this point; Chris Gruetzemacher and Clay Guida aren’t known for their knockout power but they were both able to abuse Lauzon with strikes and ended up winning by stoppage, and while Lauzon could definitely submit Pearce if he can get him to the ground, his chin is so deteriorated that it’s hard not to imagine Pearce landing on him at some point.

It’d be a fairytale for Lauzon if he could submit Pearce here, but MMA rarely ends in fairytale fashion and I just can’t trust a guy who’s so past his prime now, sorry.

The Pick: Pearce via first-round KO

#5 Maycee Barber vs. Gillian Robertson

Maycee Barber is one of the UFC's hottest prospects right now

Few fighters on the UFC roster have garnered quite as much hype as Barber in recent months. ‘The Future’ burst onto the scene via Dana White’s Contender Series last year and was impressive in stopping Hannah Cifers last November. Just 20 at that point, Barber immediately began to talk about becoming the UFC’s youngest ever champion, and to be fair, it did look like she had a lot of potential.

Her fight with JJ Aldrich in March, however, slowed down her hype train dramatically. Barber won by second-round TKO, but the first round went terribly for her as Aldrich simply used a cleaner boxing attack to outstrike her, even putting her on the mat at one point. In the end, Barber’s aggression pulled her through, but she won’t be able to rely on that and her athletic ability to win her all of her fights.

Robertson has flown under the radar somewhat since emerging in the UFC in 2017 via the 26th season of The Ultimate Fighter, but the Canadian has done well for herself; she’s 4-1 and has finished all of her wins thus far, most recently taking out Sarah Frota in July.

A grappler by trade, Robertson is extremely dangerous on the ground and in particular, she’s able to do serious damage from top position before looking for a submission. She brutalized Molly McCann in their fight, for instance, and also smashed Frota with elbows en route to picking up that win. On the feet, however, she’s somewhat stiff and robotic, meaning this is a very different match for Barber than the boxing-oriented Aldrich was.

For me, Barber is the harder hitter and the better athlete in this one. If she can keep Robertson away from her – or do damage if the Canadian is able to make it to the clinch – then for me this is a winnable fight. I’m sure Barber’s camp will have been working on her technical striking since that Aldrich fight and if that’s the case then I think she can pick Robertson apart.

If Robertson can get her down early on, however, she could be in some trouble. Barber’s not a bad grappler at all but I’d worry about her on her back with Robertson on top. With that said, I just don’t think the UFC would look to match ‘The Future’ too badly at this point – she’s too marketable to lose all of her shine at this stage – and so I think this will be a good chance for her to work an improved stand-up game.

The Pick: Barber via third-round TKO

#6 Deron Winn vs. Darren Stewart

Deron Winn is a protege of UFC legend Daniel Cormier

This one might be flying under the radar but for me it’s a fascinating fight as Winn is arguably one of the best prospects in MMA right now. A protégé of Daniel Cormier at the American Kickboxing Academy, Winn naturally has an outstanding wrestling background; he was a three-time Division I All-American at Lindenwood University in Missouri and also competed in the Team USA Olympic Trials.

After 4 early wins, Winn rose to fame after beating UFC veteran Tom Lawlor on the ill-fated Golden Boy MMA card last November, and then signed with the UFC, beating Eric Spicely in his UFC debut in June. Originally fighting at 205lbs, Winn will be moving to 185lbs for the first time here – a smart move given he’s only 5’7” and like Cormier, is built like a fireplug.

Stewart is more experienced at the UFC level as he’s now had 8 fights inside the Octagon and has won three of them, while also losing four. A tough, hard-hitting striker, ‘The Dentist’ has the ability to hurt most of his opponents – including Winn – but the issue here is going to be that he’s very much a throwback to an earlier era of UK MMA when it comes to his wrestling.

Simply put, the Brit struggles if a strong takedown artist puts a lot of pressure on him; he can stuff takedowns as evidenced when he TKO’d Spicely last year, but faced with a powerful wrestler in the form of Edmen Shahbazyan last December, he just couldn’t get anything going. Shahbazyan stayed on him like glue and despite running out of steam, comfortably outgrappled the Brit for a decision.

Given that Winn is far superior to Shahbazyan in terms of wrestling, it’s hard to see Stewart having much success here. He’s a more dangerous foe for Winn than Spicely was – and that means he’s the perfect step up for the AKA man – but assuming Winn sticks to his strengths, then I don’t see how he loses this one.

The Pick: Winn via unanimous decision

#7 The Prelims: ESPN2 card

Dangerous grappler Manny Bermudez headlines the prelim card against Charles Rosa

All of Friday’s prelims will be shown on ESPN2, and headlining that portion of the card is a Featherweight bout between veteran Charles Rosa and high-level prospect Manny Bermudez. This will be Bermudez’s debut at UFC Featherweight after missing the 135lbs Bantamweight limit twice, and based on the way he ran out of steam against Casey Kenney, it’s likely the right move for him. I think he wins this one; Rosa is more of a grappler and Bermudez is one of the most dangerous men in the UFC on the mat. I like him to submit Rosa late on.

At Flyweight, Diana Belbita makes her UFC debut to take on the tough Scouse fighter Molly McCann. McCann lacks natural athleticism but makes up for it in a ton of heart and aggression, and I think that’ll carry her through this one against a fighter who appears to be more of a journeywoman and has lost to her most notable opponents. McCann via decision is my pick.

The exciting brawler Kyle Bochniak returns at Featherweight to face Sean Woodson. Woodson is unbeaten and recently won a fight on DWCS with a flying knee, so the likelihood is that this could be an exciting brawl. Bochniak is super-tough but can be outworked, so a lot of this depends on exactly how good Woodson is. I’m going with the more proven fighter and taking Bochniak via decision.

At Bantamweight, Randy Costa faces off with Boston Salmon in what could be a loser-leaves-town fight. Neither man showed a lot in their UFC debuts but I think Salmon will take this one; he’s far more experienced than Costa and should outwork him for the length of the fight. I’ll take Salmon via decision.

Longtime veteran Court McGee returns to face Sean Brady in a Welterweight fight; this is Brady’s UFC debut so it’s a tough task for him, but he does look good overall, a strong grappler with some decent striking too. In his prime I’d probably have taken McGee to outwork him, but I worry about ‘The Crusher’ and his durability at this stage, nine years into his UFC career. I’ll take the younger man Brady to win a late TKO.

Finally at UFC Heavyweight, Daniel Spitz takes on Tanner Boser. Canada’s Boser should’ve debuted back in July, only for opponent Giacomo Lemos to test positive for a banned substance, causing the fight to be scrapped. A heavy hitter, I like Boser to win this one; Spitz is a big guy but struggles with durability, so I think this goes quickly and ends with Boser by TKO.