UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Teixeira - Predictions and Picks

You have to go back quite a while now, to July 2016, to find the last time that the UFC presented a show during the middle of the week.

But naturally, the Covid-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruption to the schedule of all sports. In their attempts to catch up, this Wednesday now sees the UFC’s 9th show on ESPN take place from Jacksonville, Florida.

It’s a largely thrown-together card, with fights pulled from a number of other UFC shows that have been postponed, but with some interesting matches on tap, it appears to be worth watching.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Teixeira.

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#1 Light-Heavyweight: Anthony Smith vs. Glover Teixeira

Anthony Smith upset Alexander Gustafsson in his last Octagon outing

These two former title challengers were all set to headline the canceled April 25th show, so it’s no surprise to see them in the main event slot here. Both men are coming off wins, and while neither is likely to challenge Jon Jones again anytime soon, a victory would be pretty important for either man.

Glover Teixeira is actually on a three-fight winning streak, but how impressive that streak is could be debatable. Both Karl Roberson and Ion Cutelaba had him in big trouble before he rallied to submit them, while his split decision win over Nikita Krylov could easily have gone in the opposite direction.

The truth is that the Brazilian probably peaked about 5 or 6 years ago. The skills that got him to the top are still intact in that he’s a tremendous grappler and submission threat from top position and he throws incredibly heavy strikes. But, at 40 years old, he’s notably slower than he once was and is less durable, too.

His 2018 loss to Corey Anderson was particularly alarming; a developing striker, Anderson comfortably outboxed Teixeira by virtue of his speed alone, and was also able to land a number of takedowns on the Brazilian veteran.

Essentially, Teixeira is a very dangerous opponent for anyone, but his advanced age and the wear-and-tear he’s endured make him a beatable opponent, too.

Anthony Smith, on the other hand, is a truly fascinating case to look at. A career journeyman for the most part, ‘Lionheart’ was middling at best as a 185lber, but once he moved to 205lbs in 2018, his career came on in leaps and bounds.

One-sided wins over veterans Rashad Evans and Mauricio Rua gave him enough momentum to leap into the conscience of the fans, but it was his gutsy win over Volkan Oezdemir that marked him out as a genuine title threat. Sure, he was comfortably beaten by Jones in his title challenge, but a win last summer over Alexander Gustafsson proved to be a real eye-opener in terms of his true potential.

Smith is a huge, rangy 205lber, and at 31 years old, it’s likely he’s now in his fighting prime. Offensively, he’s fantastic, able to catch his opponents off guard with huge strikes from range and from inside the clinch, and he’s also a capable grappler, as we saw when he choked out both Oezdemir and Gustafsson.

In terms of weaknesses, historically, ‘Lionheart’ was not the most durable fighter; he’s been stopped by strikes eight times and has also been submitted on four occasions, but he was able to survive 25 minutes with Jones and looks more capable of weathering punishment at 205lbs. It may well have been that a big weight cut to 185lbs depleted him and made him more susceptible to strikes.

Five years ago, I’d have favored Teixeira in this one. His black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and overall grappling pedigree put him ahead of Smith on the ground, and his heavy hands would appear to be more than a match for Smith’s more rangy style. However, despite his current win streak, it’s hard not to believe that the Brazilian is past his best these days.

Both Cutelaba and Roberson arguably hit harder than Smith, but I don’t feel like either man is as ruthless with a hurt opponent as ‘Lionheart’, and I see no reason why Smith wouldn’t be able to use his superior speed to catch Teixeira as those two were able to do.

Teixeira is incredibly tough – he’s only been TKO’d on three occasions before, with his only clean knockout loss coming to Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson – but everyone’s durability goes at some point and had Cutelaba been more measured, he could’ve put the Brazilian away last year.

I suspect that Smith – a calmer fighter than Cutelaba – will be more measured, and thus if he gets Teixeira hurt, which is highly likely, he should be able to pick up another hugely impressive victory.

The Pick: Smith via third-round TKO

#2 Heavyweight: Ben Rothwell vs. Ovince St. Preux

Ben Rothwell will welcome Ovince St. Preux to the Heavyweight division for the first time

If this fight sounds a little bizarre on paper, it’s because it is bizarre. ‘OSP’ has never fought at Heavyweight before, and yet his first foray into the weight class sees him facing a man in Ben Rothwell who has to cut weight to make the 265lbs limit.

Sure, Ovince St. Preux is only an inch shorter than his opponent, but unless he’s packed on a ludicrous amount of muscle – or fat – the likelihood is that he’ll be wildly outsized when the two men step into the Octagon. But will that really matter?

It’s honestly debatable. The variance in punching power is usually the key factor when a Light-Heavyweight moves up to Heavyweight, with the UFC’s biggest fighters tending to hit a lot harder than their lighter counterparts. And indeed, Rothwell hits tremendously hard; of his 37 wins, 28 have come by knockout.

With that said, despite fighting some heavy hitters since joining the UFC in 2013, OSP has only been stopped by strikes once – by Jimi Manuwa in 2016. He doesn’t have the greatest chin in the world, but nobody could really accuse him of having a glass jaw, either.

That could bode well for him, given Rothwell’s own struggles as of late. ‘Big Ben’ has never been the most dynamic fighter, even at his peak, but since his return to action from a USADA suspension in 2019, he’s looked worryingly slow on his feet.

Sure, he TKO’d Stefan Struve in December, but that fight was highly controversial, as Struve looked to be the much better fighter before he was hurt by a pair of bad low blows that led directly to the stoppage. Before that, Struve had been piecing him from the outside, just as Andrei Arlovski had done a couple of months prior.

If OSP can find a way to simply dodge around Rothwell’s attacks and pick him apart with strikes, then I don’t see why he can’t win this fight. The problem with that, though, is that St. Preux isn’t the most natural striker himself.

Sure, he has a handful of TKO wins on his record – 11 to be exact – and he stopped ‘Shogun’ Rua in 2014, but his main strengths are on the ground, and while Rothwell is no wizard on the mat, it’s not exactly easy to put him on his back.

Overall I see this fight becoming a plodding one; St. Preux just isn’t nuanced enough on his feet to dance around and pick Rothwell apart. And while ‘Big Ben’ is less likely to land the clubbing sledgehammer blow he’ll need for a TKO these days, I do think he’s got enough to avoid OSP’s takedowns. It should be a close one to call, but I suspect Rothwell will land enough heavy strikes to get the nod from the judges.

The Pick: Rothwell via unanimous decision

#3 Lightweight: Alexander Hernandez vs. Drew Dober

Alexander Hernandez is one of the Lightweight division's most gifted athletes

A likely contender for the Fight of the Night award, this Lightweight clash should be a lot of fun. Young gun Alex Hernandez burst onto the scene in 2018 with an upset win over Beneil Dariush and followed that up with a win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier, but Donald Cerrone proved to be a step too far for him.

'The Great' picked up a lone win last year – a controversial decision over Francisco Trinaldo – but it was a fight that largely saw both men cancel one another out. This fight won't likely follow that pattern. As a striker, Trinaldo is somewhat of a counter-fighter, where Dober tends to really push the fight, swinging heavy punches at his opponent.

Not that Drew Dober is a crude brawler; his boxing game has steadily improved across his UFC career to the point where he's now on the verge of the top fifteen. With a solid wrestling background to fall back on, the Nebraska native has solid skills in all areas.

The issue for him here could be the raw athletic talent of Hernandez. 'The Great' is remarkably quick even for a Lightweight, and while Dober is technically a better striker than him, the 27-year old is almost certainly more explosive. Throw in a superior wrestling game – he comfortably outgrappled Aubin-Mercier, not the easiest thing to do – and it definitely feels like if Hernandez fights to his potential, he should win this one.

To beat Dober though, he'll have to be very careful. He can't simply wade in as he's tended to do in his previous fights. But having said that, his experiences with Trinaldo may have taught him that lesson as the surprisingly athletic Brazilian was able to catch him when he did come in with hard counters.

Overall I feel like Dober has a solid puncher's chance in this one, but I don't think he's beaten anyone as athletically gifted as Hernandez before and historically, he does tend to struggle with fighters capable of taking him down and working their ground game – as we saw in his losses to Dariush and Aubin-Mercier, both of whom Hernandez defeated.

With that in mind – and the fact that Hernandez has had a long time on the shelf to improve his skills – I'm taking 'Alexander the Great' to win this fight via submission, with the caveat that if he zigs when he should zag, there's a definite chance that Dober switches his lights out.

The Pick: Hernandez via second-round submission

#4 Bantamweight: Ricky Simon vs. Ray Borg

Ricky Simon has dropped his last two fights

Both of these fighters had an interesting 2019; Ray Borg opened the year with a loss in his debut at Bantamweight, then picked up a win there before attempting to return to 125lbs. That went horribly wrong as he missed weight, but he was able to pick up a decision over Rogerio Bontorin to end his year at 2-1.

Ricky Simon meanwhile was strangely vaulted into contention at 135lbs after a solid but unspectacular win over Rani Yahya. However, he ended up being quickly dispatched by Urijah Faber in the veteran’s return fight, and then lost a decision to Rob Font to end the year in a close – and entertaining – brawl.

The outcome of this one will likely depend on who can get the better of the grappling exchanges. Essentially, whenever Borg has been able to outwrestle his opponent in the UFC, he’s tended to win. ‘The Tazmexican Devil’ is a fantastic grappler from the top position, and he’s adept at beating an opponent up from the guard or taking the back to hunt for a choke.

In his four UFC losses, though, he was unable to take his opponent down and dominate them. Naturally, there’s no shame in being unable to outgrapple Demetrious Johnson, but when he fought Casey Kenney – a largely unheralded fighter who was in turn outgrappled in his next fight – he simply didn’t have the size and strength to keep his opponent grounded and wound up losing a decision.

Simon isn’t as proven a grappler as Borg, but he’s definitely a far bigger fighter than the former Flyweight; he’s 2” taller and also has a 6” reach advantage. It’s that range which could be key for Simon to win this fight, as if he can keep Borg at a distance and snipe at him while stopping his takedowns, then it ought to be his fight to lose.

With that said, Simon is a wild, wild fighter who often doesn’t tend to fight to his strengths and will simply go with the flow; on paper, there’s no way he should’ve gone to the ground with Yahya, but he did so on a number of occasions. Granted, he didn’t find himself in any trouble, but the point still stands.

For me, if Simon can follow the smart gameplan of keeping Borg at distance while piecing him up with his strikes, he should be able to do enough to take a decision. If he finds himself grounded for long periods though, he could well be in trouble.

The Pick: Simon via unanimous decision

#5 Middleweight: Karl Roberson vs. Marvin Vettori

Marvin Vettori has improved dramatically since his UFC debut in 2016

On paper at least, this Middleweight tilt should look somewhat like a classic striker vs. grappler match. Roberson is a kickboxer of some regard – even taking on the legendary Jerome Le Banner in 2015 – and came into the UFC off the back of a knockout of Ryan Spann. Vettori meanwhile used his grappling to win his first UFC fight and even came close to defeating current Middleweight champ Israel Adesanya with his takedowns and clinch work in 2018.

However, it’s safe to say that both men have rounded their games out dramatically at this point. Roberson actually has two submission wins on his UFC ledger, while Vettori’s striking looked dramatically improved in his wins over Andrew Sanchez and Cezar Ferreira.

That means that it’s hard to pick a winner outright as either man could find a path to victory from any position. Overall though, I’m slightly favoring Vettori for a couple of different reasons.

Firstly, ‘The Italian Dream’ has steadily improved since he signed with the UFC back in 2016. He looked very raw in his early fights, including the loss to Adesanya, but since that point – and a year-long USADA suspension – he appears to have really improved his overall game. And if he was able to push Adesanya as a raw fighter, who knows what his ceiling is?

Secondly, while Roberson’s picked up a couple of solid victories, there have been a number of performances that brought into question his fight IQ. His loss to Glover Teixeira was a gutsy showing, for instance, but he had the veteran in deep trouble and probably should’ve put him away had he not chosen to engage in a grappling match.

The same could be said for his win over Wellington Turman – a super-close call that arguably should’ve gone to the Brazilian. That fight saw Turman clearly outgunned on the feet, but for some reason, Roberson chose repeatedly to clinch and engage in grappling with him – and could easily have come away with a loss.

With that in mind then, I feel like Vettori’s got enough standing to hang with Roberson there, and if he chooses to clinch and grapple – where he should have the advantage – ‘Baby K’ is likely to be happy to engage him. And if he does, I think ‘The Italian Dream’ has enough to outwork him for a decision.

The Pick: Vettori via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Former UFC Heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski will headline Wednesday night's prelim card

Wednesday's preliminary fights are likely to be shown in full on the ESPN+ streaming service, and they're actually pretty strong on paper.

At the top of the card is an intriguing Heavyweight clash between former UFC champ Andrei Arlovski and rising contender Philipe Lins. Arlovski had a strange 2019; he rolled back the years and looked fantastic in his win over Ben Rothwell, but was then KO'd for the first time since 2017 when he basically ran onto a shot from Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Lins isn't the clean striker that Rozenstruik is, but he's extremely tough and has a good recent record, winning the 2018 PFL Heavyweight tournament, for instance, with a bunch of wins over UFC veterans. However, he's somewhat plodding and has been stopped on three occasions in the past, all by fighters who aren't on Arlovski's level even today.

Arlovski could certainly find himself in trouble with the punching power of 'Monstro' here, but I suspect he'll be a little too quick for the plodding Brazilian and do enough to edge a decision.

At Lightweight, Michael Johnson squares off with Thiago Moises. This should be a classic striker vs. grappler match, as Johnson's a fleet-footed striker with plenty of power while Moises is almost purely a BJJ player.

Johnson hasn't been on the best run as of late – 2-5 since 2016 – but stylistically, he matches well with Moises as he hasn't got bad takedown defense while Moises' striking defense hasn't looked great in the past. I'll take Johnson via stoppage in this one.

Sijara Eubanks and Sarah Moras face off at Bantamweight in a fight that was initially pegged for the April version of UFC 249. I predicted Eubanks to win a decision when I previewed that show, figuring her grappling skill and athleticism could pull her through, and I see no reason to change that prediction here.

At Bantamweight, Hunter Azure faces Brian Kelleher. Kelleher looked like a fighter to watch a while back after he beat the likes of Iuri Alcantara and Renan Barao, but his losses to John Lineker and Montel Jackson took the sheen off him a little. Azure meanwhile debuted with a decent win over Brad Katona, showing himself to be a confident striker more than a grappler.

With that said, Kelleher hits extremely hard for a 135lber and is also capable of latching onto submissions given the chance, so I like him in this one, probably by TKO.

At Heavyweight, debutant Isaac Villanueva faces off with the returning Chase Sherman. Both men have similar records, although Sherman obviously has far more experience at this level.

I'd expect a relatively close – if sloppy – fight between these two strikers, and if Sherman's chin can hold up to the power of Villanueva, I'm happy to pick him to get a win upon his Octagon return, most likely by decision.

Finally, at Lightweight, Mexico's Gabriel Benitez faces Omar Ferrer. This will be Benitez's first foray into the 155lbs division after some strong success at 145lbs, while the unbeaten Ferrer is coming off a win over Dong Hyun Ma last December.

How Benitez will handle the move up in weight is a question mark given he didn't appear to be the biggest Featherweight, but I'm taking him via decision due to his massive UFC experience.