UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Teixeira - Predictions and Picks

#5 Middleweight: Karl Roberson vs. Marvin Vettori

Marvin Vettori has improved dramatically since his UFC debut in 2016

On paper at least, this Middleweight tilt should look somewhat like a classic striker vs. grappler match. Roberson is a kickboxer of some regard – even taking on the legendary Jerome Le Banner in 2015 – and came into the UFC off the back of a knockout of Ryan Spann. Vettori meanwhile used his grappling to win his first UFC fight and even came close to defeating current Middleweight champ Israel Adesanya with his takedowns and clinch work in 2018.

However, it’s safe to say that both men have rounded their games out dramatically at this point. Roberson actually has two submission wins on his UFC ledger, while Vettori’s striking looked dramatically improved in his wins over Andrew Sanchez and Cezar Ferreira.

That means that it’s hard to pick a winner outright as either man could find a path to victory from any position. Overall though, I’m slightly favoring Vettori for a couple of different reasons.

Firstly, ‘The Italian Dream’ has steadily improved since he signed with the UFC back in 2016. He looked very raw in his early fights, including the loss to Adesanya, but since that point – and a year-long USADA suspension – he appears to have really improved his overall game. And if he was able to push Adesanya as a raw fighter, who knows what his ceiling is?

Secondly, while Roberson’s picked up a couple of solid victories, there have been a number of performances that brought into question his fight IQ. His loss to Glover Teixeira was a gutsy showing, for instance, but he had the veteran in deep trouble and probably should’ve put him away had he not chosen to engage in a grappling match.

The same could be said for his win over Wellington Turman – a super-close call that arguably should’ve gone to the Brazilian. That fight saw Turman clearly outgunned on the feet, but for some reason, Roberson chose repeatedly to clinch and engage in grappling with him – and could easily have come away with a loss.

With that in mind then, I feel like Vettori’s got enough standing to hang with Roberson there, and if he chooses to clinch and grapple – where he should have the advantage – ‘Baby K’ is likely to be happy to engage him. And if he does, I think ‘The Italian Dream’ has enough to outwork him for a decision.

The Pick: Vettori via unanimous decision