UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns - Predictions and Picks

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Former Flyweight title challenger Katlyn Chookagian headlines the prelim card

From most reports, the show’s preliminary fights will be shown on the ESPN+ streaming service. Headlining the portion of the card will be a Flyweight clash between former title challenger Katlyn Chookagian and the sister of the current champ, Antonina Shevchenko.

Chookagian looked firmly out of her depth with Valentina Shevchenko, but Antonina is not ‘The Bullet’ and doesn’t quite carry the same threat that her sister does. ‘Pantera’ is much more of a point-based striker, and while she’s solid on the ground, she’s also proven to be beatable there too.

I suspect this one will take place on the feet, and while Shevchenko has more credentials, I’m actually leaning towards Chookagian. She’s more experienced in the UFC, has beaten credentialed strikers before (Joanne Calderwood, Jennifer Maia) and should hold a slight reach advantage. Chookagian via decision is my pick.

In a Catchweight bout at 150lbs (I’m not sure of the reason for this), Billy Quarantillo takes on Spike Carlyle. A high-level grappler, Quarantillo returned to the UFC last year with an impressive triangle choke win over Jason Kilburn, erasing the memories of his poor showing on TUF 22. Carlyle meanwhile looked tremendous in his own UFC debut, taking out Aalon Cruz violently in the first round. Given Carlyle’s hard-hitting style, this should be a classic striker vs. grappler match.

I’m giving a slight edge to Quarantillo in this one; he’s more proven against higher-level opponents and has far more experience, and he’s also not a bad striker by any means. If he can weather an early storm, I like him to win by submission.

At Light-Heavyweight, Jamahal Hill faces Klidson Abreu. An experienced campaigner, Abreu hasn’t done so well in the UFC, going 1-2. That’s largely due to the fact that he lacks size at 205lbs despite being an extremely skilled grappler. He’ll hold a big experience advantage over Hill, who only started fighting in late 2017. However, ‘Sweet Dreams’ makes up for that lack of experience with plenty of athleticism.

This one’s a tricky fight to pick as Hill’s takedown defense didn’t look great in his fight with Darko Stosic, but I feel like his athletic ability can pull him through for a decision win.

At Flyweight, former title challenger Tim Elliott is back, facing newcomer Brandon Royval. On paper at least, you’d give the advantage to Elliott here; judging by his footage, ‘Raw Dawg’ shouldn’t have too much to bother such a skilled grappler. But Elliott is also getting old for a Flyweight now and hasn’t won since 2017. I’m going with the safe pick of Elliott via decision, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Royval overwhelms him early on with sheer aggression.

In a fun-sounding Bantamweight fight, Casey Kenney squares off with Louis Smolka. Kenney looks like a great prospect; he was able to outwork Ray Borg and Manny Bermudez in his early UFC days and didn’t look out of his depth in a loss to Merab Dvalishvili in February, while Smolka has had an up-and-down career as of late, largely only overcoming overmatched opponents. I like Kenney to grind out a decision win in this one.

Finally, Chris Gutierrez faces Vince Morales in a Featherweight tilt. Gutierrez is currently 2-1 in the UFC, although none of his fights were overly memorable, while Morales hasn’t been seen since a wild fight with Benito Lopez last summer. Given that both men usually fight at Bantamweight, the winner here could depend on who takes to their newer division better. I’ve been more impressed with Morales thus far into their UFC careers, so I’ll take him to edge a decision.