UFC on Fox 30: 5 talking points

The last time the UFC headed to Calgary, Alberta, Canada just over six years ago, they put on one of the worst PPVs in company history in the form of UFC 149. Last night’s card promised so much more than that and thankfully, it delivered.

With the recent ‘big’ Fox cards being largely underwhelming, this one looked strong on paper – featuring a likely classic main event between Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez as well as the returns of former champions Jose Aldo and Joanna Jedrzejczyk – and in the end we got plenty of talking points from the night’s action. Here are 5 of them.

#1 Poirier is a legitimate title contender, but how far down the line is he?

After beating Alvarez, Dustin Poirier is a legitimate title contender at 155lbs

After last night, it’s hard to deny that Dustin Poirier is a legitimate title contender at Lightweight. His win over Eddie Alvarez was his third in a row – and probably would’ve been his fifth in a row had the first fight between the two ended in a disqualification for Alvarez as it should’ve – and he hasn’t lost now since a September 2016 fight with Michael Johnson. He’s beaten former UFC, WSOF and WEC champions along the way.

The only problem ‘The Diamond’ has is that even with a strong victory over a former champ like Alvarez, he’s probably not actually any closer to a title fight than he was going into Saturday night’s show. Alvarez was ranked at #3 in the division and Poirier is likely to take that spot on Monday, but even then, both Conor McGregor and Tony Ferguson probably have more of a claim to a title shot than he does.

Ferguson hasn’t fought since October 2017, but he’s still on a 10-fight win streak and never lost his Interim title. And McGregor – who is now cleared to restart his career after his brush with the law following the UFC 223 bus incident – never lost the full title in the first place and realistically could probably pick a title fight in any division, such is his drawing power.

The best hope for Poirier is that McGregor and the UFC simply can’t come to a deal, and current champ Khabib Nurmagomedov chooses to defend his title before Ferguson is ready to return. But if the UFC manage to put together Khabib vs. McGregor for later in the year, Poirier might be on the outside looking in, despite such a great showing last night.

#2 Did Alvarez snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

Eddie Alvarez is heading into free agency coming off a loss

The first fight between Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez ended in a ton of controversy, as Poirier appeared to have Alvarez on the ropes before the former champion fought his way back into the match – only to then land an illegal knee that left Poirier unable to continue. The fight was deemed a No Contest but many fans thought Alvarez should’ve been disqualified for the illegal blow – something a near-15 year veteran of the sport should’ve known not to throw.

Going into last night’s rematch then, you’d have been forgiven for thinking Alvarez would’ve been looking to stick carefully to the rules. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case .After a close first round that probably could’ve gone either way, Alvarez appeared to be getting the better of things in the second round, knocking Poirier down early on before gaining a dominant position on the ground, first in back mount and then in full mount.

From there though – apparently acting on the instructions of his coach Mark Henry – Alvarez delivered a clearly illegal 12-6 elbow to Poirier, forcing referee Marc Goddard to pause the action before taking the dominant position away from ‘The Underground King’ – and once the fighters were on their feet, Poirier took over with his striking, battering Alvarez to a TKO loss.

So did Alvarez snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Quite possibly. Had he not thrown the illegal elbow, Poirier certainly wouldn’t have found himself in the position to throw the fight-ending flurry, and the more likely outcome would’ve been a round in the books for Alvarez – and he could well have done some serious damage from the mount, too. With Alvarez now going into free agency off the back of a loss, that illegal move could cost him more than just this fight, too.

#3 Is Jose Aldo back to his best?

Jose Aldo picked up his first finish since 2013 by stopping Jeremy Stephens

It’s hard to believe given his dominance of the 145lbs division over the last decade, but going into last night’s show, Jose Aldo’s only win since October 2014 was his decision victory over Frankie Edgar at UFC 200. His last two fights had seen him simply dismantled by Max Holloway, and in both outings, Aldo looked like a man who’d slipped out of his prime and into the twilight of his career.

Last night though, the Brazilian turned back the clock. ‘Scarface’ not only weathered a storm early on from the dangerous Jeremy Stephens, but in landing a big left hand to the body and then swarming ‘Lil Heathen’ until he was unable to continue, Aldo not only won, but he picked up his first finish since his August 2013 TKO of Chan Sung Jung.

Is Aldo back to his best? If we’re honest, it’s hard to say. Stephens had been on a strong run but his wild, aggressive style was always a good match for the Brazilian and he’d never beaten anyone close to Aldo’s calibre. And this win didn’t really give anyone the idea that Aldo could step in and beat Holloway – assuming he can get healthy – or Brian Ortega either for that matter, as prior to the fight-ending shot he did look a little rattled.

The likelihood is that Aldo is on the downswing regardless of last night’s result, but the win at least keeps him relevant in the division. Where he goes next is anyone’s guess really – maybe the long-rumoured move to 155lbs? – but it was nice to see a legend pick up a much-needed win.

#4 Alexander Hernandez – the next big thing at 155lbs?

Alexander Hernandez could be the breakout fighter of 2018

When fighters as good as Michael Chiesa, James Vick and Francisco Trinaldo aren’t even in the top ten, you know a division must be loaded with talent. That’s certainly the case with the UFC’s Lightweight division right now, as the likes of Kevin Lee and Dustin Poirier have continued to rise through the ranks this year. But we may have seen the next big thing last night in the division last night in the form of Alexander Hernandez.

Hernandez debuted in the UFC in March and although he made a big splash by KOing the once-highly ranked Beneil Dariush, that fight was so quick – 42 seconds – that we didn’t learn a lot about the Texan. Last night he was faced with Canadian grappler Olivier Aubin-Mercier, and although it was clear Hernandez had a chance due to his punching power, most observers were favouring Aubin-Mercier due to his tight grappling and UFC experience.

Instead, Hernandez picked up another win – and surprisingly enough, for the most part, he used his ground game to do so, taking Aubin-Mercier down on numerous occasions, outworking him in the clinch and generally wearing the Canadian out in his own wheelhouse.

With two big wins under his belt and a skillset that could probably have anyone in the division in trouble, Hernandez may well find himself inside the UFC’s top ten after just two fights come Monday. That’s a major boon, and if he can get another big win in his third UFC outing, then he could break into the title scene quicker than anyone could’ve anticipated. He could end up as the breakout fighter of 2018 when all is said and done.

#5 How long will it take for the UFC to cut Kajan Johnson?

Islam Makhachev may have enabled the UFC to cut Kajan Johnson

It’s a well-known fact that the UFC’s contracts allow them to cut any fighter coming off a loss, and while it doesn’t feel like fighters are being cut from the promotion that regularly these days, if Kajan Johnson remains on the roster by the end of next week it’ll be a major surprise.

Johnson didn’t lose in a bad way last night – he was faced with an incredibly dangerous opponent in Islam Makhachev and the Dagestani easily outgrappled and submitted him inside a round – but rather, he’s heavily involved in Project Spearhead – the organisation headed by Leslie Smith that’s looking to unionise UFC fighters.

For those who don’t know, Smith was herself cut by the UFC in April – and not after a loss, either. Instead, she was released after refusing to fight Aspen Ladd at a catchweight after Ladd missed weight for their scheduled fight. Reading between the lines, though, the UFC brass probably just wanted rid of someone they considered to be a major nuisance.

And Johnson, from the UFC’s perspective, is a major nuisance himself. He’s criticised everything from the Reebok deal to fighter pay, and outside of Smith herself, nobody is more heavily involved in Project Spearhead’s attempt to organise the UFC’s roster. And thanks to Makhachev, the UFC now has its opportunity to get rid of another nuisance by cutting Johnson.

Is that right? Probably not – Johnson had won four in a row going into last night – but from the UFC’s perspective, they simply don’t want to give the fighters a bigger slice of the pie – and that means they can’t let Project Spearhead succeed. And by getting rid of Johnson, the likelihood of it succeeding gets slimmer.