UFC on Fox 31: Lee vs. Iaquinta 2 - Predictions and Picks

The UFC presents its final show on Fox this weekend from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and while it’s a solid enough card, it certainly doesn’t feel like the promotion is ending their tenure with the station with a bang.

We don’t have a title fight or even a likely title eliminator as a headliner – so it’s down to hoping for a lot of action rather than anything which will shake the UFC to the core. On a positive note, the fights are largely well-matched – meaning it should be hard to pick the winners correctly.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on Fox: Lee vs. Iaquinta 2.

#1 Kevin Lee vs. Al Iaquinta

Kevin Lee dominated Edson Barboza in an impressive April win

The convoluted nature of the UFC’s Lightweight division is in full effect here; a handful of years ago, smashing a contender like Edson Barboza in the way that Kevin Lee did back in April would’ve netted him a title shot or at least a top contender’s match. Instead, he’s faced with Iaquinta – no pushover, but not currently ranked in the top 5.

Granted, Iaquinta last fought for the UFC title – and put up a solid fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov, going the distance with the Russian – but it was a last-minute job and right now the New Yorker isn’t even above Barboza on the ladder.

Still, there’s some interest here – largely because the two men fought previously, at UFC 169 back in February 2014, with Iaquinta taking a unanimous decision. The fight was Lee’s UFC debut and it was excellent; personally, I scored it as a draw, as Lee recovered from a first-round knockdown to dominate Iaquinta in the second round, enough for a 10-8 in my book, before Iaquinta managed to do enough to edge the third round.

So how will this second fight go? Well, both men have improved since then, but they also largely remain the same fighters they were back in 2014. Iaquinta is still an excellent MMA boxer with a solid wrestling game to back everything up, while Lee is still one of the most powerful grapplers in the division – particularly from the top position – and he’s also extremely durable, as he showed in his fight with Barboza in April.

For me though, the big difference this time is in the experiences that the two men have had since that first outing. Lee has had 12 UFC fights to Iaquinta’s 7, and over that time he’s gradually climbed up the ladder, beating harder and harder opponents and his only recent loss was to Tony Ferguson in a fight he was winning before he gassed out.

Iaquinta meanwhile looked to be following a similar path until 2015, but a contract dispute with the UFC led to him sitting out for huge periods of time – he didn’t fight for two years between 2015 and 2017, and then sat out another year until the Khabib fight this year – and largely focusing on a career in real estate. Iaquinta now claims to be fully focused on his fighting career, but can we really be sure that’s the case?

In terms of how the men match up, I’d give Iaquinta the advantage on the feet, Lee the advantage on the ground. The big problem for Iaquinta, however, is that outside of a surprising KO loss to Leo Santos in 2015, Lee has shown a remarkable chin and ability to recover from big shots; Barboza, Francisco Trinaldo and Iaquinta himself all had him badly hurt and couldn’t put him down for good.

For me this is just another version of the original fight – both men have the same skillsets, albeit better versions of those skillsets, and they haven’t added a ton of new wrinkles really. The big difference is that Lee’s been more active, he seems to be the one who’s hungrier to reach the top, and over 5 rounds, I’m not sure that Iaquinta can stay off his back. And judging by his fights with Barboza, Michael Chiesa and Francisco Trinaldo, Lee has the skills to take out anyone once he gets them into that position.

The Pick: Lee via third round submission

#2 Dan Hooker vs. Edson Barboza

Dan Hooker has been on a roll since moving to 155lbs

This looks like a fascinating fight between one man who appears to be climbing the ladder, and another who seems to be clinging onto the said ladder by his fingertips right now. A win for Hooker would rocket him up the ranks and make him an instant contender, while a win for Barboza would merely keep the Brazilian afloat.

New Zealand’s Hooker wasn’t supposed to get this far; he started his UFC career at 145lbs, going 3-3 and generally seeming like a reliable action fighter at best. A move to 155lbs in 2017 paid dividends though, and since then ‘The Hangman’ has gone 4-0, finishing all of his opponents for good measure. Sure, you could claim Ross Pearson and Jim Miller were past their best at the time he faced them, but you can’t sneeze at a knockout over someone the calibre of Gilbert Burns.

A rangy Lightweight at 6’0”, Hooker’s best asset is his Muay Thai game. He makes excellent use of long punches and kicks from the outside, and he’s also deadly with his elbows and in particular his knees – as both Pearson and Miller painfully found out. Hooker has shown issues with takedowns, but on the ground, he’s also proven himself dangerous, and he submitted Marc Diakiese in impressive fashion just under a year ago with a nasty guillotine choke.

Barboza is now in his 8th year with the UFC and we all know what he brings – a vicious Muay Thai assault centred around his brutal low kicks and a penchant for throwing flashy – but dangerous – spinning kicks. The Brazilian has a handful of the UFC’s best-ever highlight reel knockouts on his ledger, which stands at an impressive 13-6.

The issue surrounding ‘Junior’ throughout his UFC tenure has been his struggles to absorb damage well. Of his 6 losses, 4 of them all involved him being either knocked out or knocked down; he’s been hurt by fighters not notable as strikers such as Danny Castillo and Beneil Dariush, and his questionable chin cost him fights he was actually winning against Jamie Varner and Donald Cerrone.

This issue has been highlighted even more since a really bad loss last December to Khabib Nurmagomedov. The current UFC Lightweight champ absolutely dismantled Barboza over 3 rounds, taking him down and pulverising him to the point where he looked completely broken. He took a few months off following this, but his next fight – a loss to Kevin Lee – followed the same pattern. Could it be that Nurmagomedov simply took his fighting soul?

My bet is yes. 8 years at the top of the UFC fighting tough opponent after tough opponent has to take its toll, and at 32 Barboza is no spring chicken either. All that damage has to catch up to a fighter at some point and I just don’t trust that he can take punishment well any more.

Admittedly, Hooker doesn’t have the wrestling-based offense that gave Barboza so much difficulty against Khabib and Lee, and he isn’t anywhere near as dynamic on offense as Barboza himself. But he is a proven and violent finisher, and I find it hard to see Barboza fighting a perfect fight that doesn’t involve him getting hurt at least once. And when he does, I just don’t think he’ll be allowed to recover.

The Pick: Hooker via second round KO

#3 Rob Font vs. Sergio Pettis

Rob Font will be looking to give Sergio Pettis a rude welcoming to 135lbs

The younger Pettis brother makes a move back to 135lbs here for the first time since 2014 – perhaps pre-empting the death of the Flyweight division – to face off with a tricky sounding opponent in Boston’s Rob Font. The reason this is tricky? Font is a huge 135lber, meaning Pettis won’t just be the smaller man – he’ll be far smaller in the cage and will give up nearly 3 inches of reach.

Font has largely flown under the radar since his 2015 UFC debut – he uses his long reach and lanky physique to land heavy strikes from the outside and like many taller, longer fighters, he’s also adept at catching chokes, particularly the guillotine. Perhaps his best UFC showing was his win over Douglas Silva de Andrade in 2017 – but that was immediately followed up with a poor loss to Pedro Munhoz. It’s this inconsistency that’s largely held him back thus far.

Pettis meanwhile was knocking on the door of a title shot at 125lbs earlier this year, but a loss to Jussier Formiga put paid to that idea. It wasn’t the first time he fell at the final hurdle – if he’d beaten Henry Cejudo last December, he’d have been on a 4 fight win streak and likely would’ve been granted a shot at Demetrious Johnson.

Pettis is a dynamic offensive fighter; less flashy than his brother, his striking is tight, as we saw when he comfortably outstruck the likes of John Moraga and Brandon Moreno. His grappling has always looked solid too, but he has struggled with the takedowns and ground control of better wrestlers like Cejudo, Formiga and Moreno at times during their fight.

Where Pettis has shown issues has been with his durability. He was knocked out by Ryan Benoit in 2015, and has been hurt in other fights too – even ones against less-than-heavy hitters. It hasn’t mattered too much at 125lbs, where knockout power isn’t common, but back at 135 lbs, it could come back to the forefront.

I’m worried for Pettis here as I think this is a horrible fight for him to return to 135lbs with. Font is one of the biggest guys at the weight and while he’s not a perfect fighter by any means, his striking power and sheer size make him sound like a horrible match for ‘The Phenom’. Pettis would have a chance against some higher ranked Bantamweights, I feel, but not a man who’s taken out Thomas Almeida standing.

The Pick: Font via second round KO

#4 Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira

Does Jim Miller have enough left in the tank to take out Charles Oliveira?

Like the main event, this is a rematch of an earlier fight; for the initial meeting between Miller and Oliveira, you’ve got to go all the way back to December 2010. In that fight, Miller caught a much more inexperienced Oliveira in a kneebar during a scramble and became the first man to defeat ‘Do Bronx’, but since then the Brazilian has been on quite the journey – breaking the record for the most submission wins in UFC history with 11.

Does this mean he’ll fly past Miller here? Well, some logic would suggest yes. Despite all of his experience – a crazy 21 UFC fights alone – he’s still only 29 years old and since moving back to 155lbs in 2017 he appears to be just about hitting his prime.

Miller meanwhile is clearly past his prime – he’s much slower than he was in his heyday, isn’t as durable as he once was, and has a tendency to run out of steam too, an issue which apparently stems from an ongoing battle with Lyme Disease, which he contracted in 2013. Despite this, he managed to largely float along near the top ten of the Lightweight division until 2017, when he hit a 4-fight slide.

It appeared that he was probably finished for good, but a surprising win over Alex White in September allowed him to continue his storied UFC career – one that will encompass a massive 31 fights once Saturday is done.

So why shouldn’t this be a cakewalk for Oliveira, then? Well, to pick a fight you have to look at the styles. Despite all of his struggles, Miller hasn’t ever lost to a pure submission grappler like Oliveira – all of his losses either come to nasty strikers who were able to hurt him standing (Donald Cerrone, Dan Hooker, Anthony Pettis) or stronger wrestlers who were able to take him down and control him from the top (Diego Sanchez, Francisco Trinaldo, Michael Chiesa).

Despite all of his success I just don’t see Oliveira being capable of taking out Miller on the feet, and while he’s shown the ability to tap anyone out, Miller is an accomplished grappler who’s only been submitted by a pair of giants in Chiesa and Pat Healy. I’d also question whether he could get Miller on his back in the first place.

I could end up looking stupid here if Miller is completely shot, but I think he’s still got enough in his tank to outwrestle Oliveira over three rounds, staying out of trouble enough to take a decision.

The Pick: Miller via unanimous decision

#5 The Prelims: Fox Sports 1 card

Jack Hermansson fights Gerald Meerschaert in the best fight on the prelim card

In perhaps the most underwhelming prelim headliner of 2018, Zak Ottow takes on newcomer Dwight Grant. A striker fighting out of the American Kickboxing Academy, Grant burst onto the scene via Dana White’s Contender Series and was initially pegged to fight Erik Koch here before Ottow stepped in on late notice. I give the advantage to Grant here; the man clearly hits hard and while he doesn’t look like the finished article, Ottow simply doesn’t take a punch very well and he’s been KO’d in 2 of his last 3 bouts. I personally question whether he’s a UFC-level fighter and so I’m taking Grant via first-round knockout.

At Lightweight, aggressive wrestler Drakkar Klose takes on Bobby Green, who returned to action to outpoint Erik Koch in January. Green hasn’t been all that active recently but when he’s at his best he’s an excellent boxer – albeit one who gets hit too much – who can also wrestle pretty well too. Klose showed some issues dealing with a solid striker in David Teymur last year, but then did well in handling Lando Vannata earlier this year; I worry for Green given his decade-long tenure in MMA and relative inactivity, so I’ll take Klose to grapple his way to a decision win.

Also at 155lbs, dangerous Brazilian Joaquim Silva takes on Jared Gordon, who won a UFC contract via the Looking for a Fight series back in 2017. Gordon is clearly a tough guy but Silva is a classic TUF Brazil product – a monster with Muay Thai and jiu-jitsu with clear issues in wrestling and stamina. Neither of those are likely to come to the fore in this fight so I think it’s a win for Silva, probably by early knockout.

In a Middleweight tilt, Gerald Meerschaert faces off with Jack Hermansson in a fight between two of the division’s rangiest grinders. At his best – like his recent win over Thales Leites – Hermansson looks fantastic, using his lanky frame to abuse opponents with his striking and to punish them on the ground from the top. Meerschaert is more of a wrestler, but he’s shown surprising skills too – choking out noted grappler Oskar Piechota and stopping Eric Spicely last year with a vicious body kick. This is a tough fight to pick – probably the best on the prelim card in fact – and I’m flipping the coin and landing on Hermansson via decision.

At Featherweight, Dan Ige – another veteran of Dana White’s Contender Series – takes on newcomer Jordan Griffin, a fighter also produced by the same show. Despite making his UFC debut, Griffin is actually far more experienced than Ige, his career dating back to 2009. Despite a 50 second win earlier in the year, Ige just hasn’t impressed that much in his UFC career thus far – and so I’m taking Griffin via late knockout.

Finally, in what could’ve headlined this prelim card, Flyweights Angela Lee and Jessica-Rose Clark face off in a battle with potential title implications. Clark surprised everyone by grinding out two wins over Bec Rawlings and Paige VanZant, but came up short against Jessica Eye in June, while Lee debuted strongly in May with a win over Veronica Macedo. It’s a tricky one to pick but I favour the more dynamic offense of Lee – and given her star potential, I can’t imagine the UFC matching her badly right now. Lee via submission is my guess.

#6 The Prelims: Fight Pass card

The monstrous Juan Adams makes his UFC debut on the Fight Pass portion of the card

Headlining the Fight Pass portion of Saturday’s card is former Heavyweight Adam Milstead, who faces Mike Rodriguez at 205lbs. Milstead looked like a man to watch after a successful debut in 2016, but a bad knee injury in a fight with Curtis Blaydes slowed him down and he struggled in his last fight against Jordan Johnson. Rodriguez meanwhile was comfortably beaten in his own UFC debut by Devin Clark. It’s a tough one to pick given Milstead’s issues with coming back from a bad injury, but he should be more comfortable this time and so I favour him by decision.

In a real battle of grinders at 185lbs, Trevor Smith fights Zak Cummings. It’s hardly the most alluring fight given the styles of both men – even if Smith is somewhat more exciting to watch – and I’m going with the slightly larger, more durable Smith to come out on top via decision.

Finally, Chris de la Rocha takes on Juan Adams at Heavyweight. A somewhat sloppy striker, de la Rocha has lost 2 of 3 UFC outings and only came out on top over the far smaller Rashad Coulter. Adams meanwhile looks like a man to watch – at 6’5” and 265lbs he’s a giant Heavyweight who lives up to his ‘Kraken’ nickname, and he looked incredibly violent and dangerous in his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series. This looks like a squash to me to showcase Adams in his official debut, and I think he takes out de la Rocha by early stoppage.