UFC on Fox 31: Lee vs. Iaquinta 2 - Predictions and Picks

#4 Jim Miller vs. Charles Oliveira

Does Jim Miller have enough left in the tank to take out Charles Oliveira?

Like the main event, this is a rematch of an earlier fight; for the initial meeting between Miller and Oliveira, you’ve got to go all the way back to December 2010. In that fight, Miller caught a much more inexperienced Oliveira in a kneebar during a scramble and became the first man to defeat ‘Do Bronx’, but since then the Brazilian has been on quite the journey – breaking the record for the most submission wins in UFC history with 11.

Does this mean he’ll fly past Miller here? Well, some logic would suggest yes. Despite all of his experience – a crazy 21 UFC fights alone – he’s still only 29 years old and since moving back to 155lbs in 2017 he appears to be just about hitting his prime.

Miller meanwhile is clearly past his prime – he’s much slower than he was in his heyday, isn’t as durable as he once was, and has a tendency to run out of steam too, an issue which apparently stems from an ongoing battle with Lyme Disease, which he contracted in 2013. Despite this, he managed to largely float along near the top ten of the Lightweight division until 2017, when he hit a 4-fight slide.

It appeared that he was probably finished for good, but a surprising win over Alex White in September allowed him to continue his storied UFC career – one that will encompass a massive 31 fights once Saturday is done.

So why shouldn’t this be a cakewalk for Oliveira, then? Well, to pick a fight you have to look at the styles. Despite all of his struggles, Miller hasn’t ever lost to a pure submission grappler like Oliveira – all of his losses either come to nasty strikers who were able to hurt him standing (Donald Cerrone, Dan Hooker, Anthony Pettis) or stronger wrestlers who were able to take him down and control him from the top (Diego Sanchez, Francisco Trinaldo, Michael Chiesa).

Despite all of his success I just don’t see Oliveira being capable of taking out Miller on the feet, and while he’s shown the ability to tap anyone out, Miller is an accomplished grappler who’s only been submitted by a pair of giants in Chiesa and Pat Healy. I’d also question whether he could get Miller on his back in the first place.

I could end up looking stupid here if Miller is completely shot, but I think he’s still got enough in his tank to outwrestle Oliveira over three rounds, staying out of trouble enough to take a decision.

The Pick: Miller via unanimous decision