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The UFC visits the Las Vegas Sphere for the first time next weekend. The event is set to be a big one, marking Mexican Independence Day.
Noche UFC 306: Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili features two title fights and a distinctly Mexican flavor. If everything delivers, it could be one of the best shows of 2024, period.
With that in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for Noche UFC 306: Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili.
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#1. UFC bantamweight title: Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
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To say that this is a huge fight would be an understatement. Not only does it pit the two best bantamweights on the planet against one another, but it's also a classic stylistic match of striker vs. grappler.
To make things even more intriguing, both men have proven that they can be kryptonite for the style largely deployed by the other. That makes this clash remarkably hard to pick.
So will Sean O'Malley retain his title next weekend? Or will Merab Dvalishvili finally ascend to the top of the mountain at 135 pounds.
Weirdly, despite being the champion, 'Sugar' is actually less proven than his Georgian foe. Marked for stardom since his 2017 appearance on Dana White's Contender Series, O'Malley was allowed to build himself slowly, beating overmatched foes before finally climbing up the ladder in 2022.
That climb saw him face former titleholder Petr Yan, and while the result of their bout was contentious, with O'Malley winning a split decision that could've gone either way, it proved he belonged at the elite level.
Still, few fans expected him to achieve what he did next, knocking out reigning champion Aljamain Sterling - widely recognized as the best bantamweight of all time - to claim the title.
Since then, O'Malley has beaten an overmatched Marlon Vera, cementing himself as champ. To many, though, he still needs to beat Dvalishvili to prove he's the best.
That's because 'The Machine' is on a run of 10 straight wins. He's shut down three former UFC champions in Jose Aldo, Yan, and Henry Cejudo, and certainly put a more convincing beating on Yan than O'Malley did.
As everyone is aware, the Georgian is essentially a high-level bully in the cage. He gets in the face of his opponent, roughs them up with short-range strikes and looks to beat them up in the clinch and on the ground.
Moreover, 'The Machine' is a scarily good wrestler, to the point that he literally bodyslammed Cejudo, the 2008 Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling.
This fight presents a new challenge for him though, in that he's never fought someone with the same attributes as O'Malley. 'Sugar' is not only a lethal striker, but he's also masterful in his footwork, and he'll also enjoy a sizeable four-inch reach advantage.
In many ways, the styles do favor Dvalishvili here. He's probably only got to get to the clinch once in each round without taking damage, and he should be able to drag O'Malley down and control him to win the stanza.
However, he doesn't seem likely to finish 'Sugar', and that makes him vulnerable. All O'Malley needs to do is land the perfect shot, and the fight is likely to be over.
More to the point, Dvalishvili hasn't been impossible to hit before. Marlon Moraes cracked him in their bout and although he recovered to win, it's hard to imagine O'Malley letting him off the hook in similar fashion.
This fight could honestly go either way, but right now, O'Malley is riding the kind of wave that feels hard to stop.
The Pick: O'Malley via second-round KO
#2. UFC flyweight title: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
The latest UFC title rivalry to go all the way to a trilogy, Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko will make history in this bout.
Either Grasso will retain her title, downing Shevchenko for the second time, and the flyweight division will move past the era of 'Bullet', or the former champ will reclaim her throne.
Which way is the fight more likely to go? Based on their second bout, it's very hard to say.
Their first fight, on paper, felt like it was going to be a routine defense for Shevchenko. After all, she'd already made six successful defenses, and Grasso, while 4-0 at 125 pounds, hadn't really beaten a top-level foe.
Despite this, the seemingly impossible happened. After a solid start for Grasso, 'Bullet' took over and began to dominate, just as expected. However, in the fourth round, she slipped on a failed spin kick, Grasso jumped onto her back, and moments later, the Mexican sunk a fight-ending face crank.
It was no surprise when the UFC booked an immediate rematch, but while many fans again favored Shevchenko, Grasso threw up another surprise.
This time around, the Mexican looked more poised, polished, and sharp than she'd done in the first bout. It felt like she'd suddenly begun to believe that she was in fact on Shevchenko's level, and went about proving it.
Sure, the fight was still razor-close, with many fans believing 'Bullet' in fact deserved the nod, but Grasso still fought marvelously. When the clash was declared a draw, a third bout was always inevitable.
This time around, it feels like the odds ought to favor Grasso. While her first win over Shevchenko felt like a fluke caused more by the champion's error than anything, it's probably arguable that the Mexican had the brighter moments in the second bout.
More importantly, another year has passed since, and 'Bullet' is getting no younger. At 36 and with a career of wars behind her, she's understandably getting long in the tooth now.
Grasso, in contrast, is 31 and looks to be in her prime. There's a chance she could still be improving, something that can't be said for Shevchenko at this stage.
Given that the Mexican scored a big knockdown in the second fight and more than held her own on the ground, it's hard to pinpoint an area in which Shevchenko could be dominant.
Add in the fact that she does tend to start slowly at times, and it could be the case here that Grasso comes out fast and gains a lead on the scorecards that is simply too heavy for 'The Bullet' to overcome.
It definitely won't be easy, but it feels like the right time for a full change of the guard at flyweight here.
The Pick: Grasso via decision
#3. Noche UFC 306: The Main Card
In a key featherweight tilt that could decide the next title challenger at 145 pounds, Brian Ortega faces Diego Lopes. Initially supposed to take place at UFC 303, the fight was delayed until here due to Ortega's health issues, and it's definitely for the gain of this event.
In many ways, this is a clash of mirror images. Both 'T-City' and Lopes possess deadly skills both standing and on the ground, they're ruthless finishers, and they appear to be remarkably durable, too.
The big difference, realistically, is that Ortega has been around for a lot longer than Lopes and is far more proven than the Mexico-based Brazilian.
The question, then, is whether Lopes is really good enough to take out 'T-City', a feat that even Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski struggled with.
In all honesty, it's hard to imagine him doing it. Lopes is an absolutely fantastic talent, but Ortega is not only a venomous striker but he's a truly generational grappler who's unlikely to get caught in anything on the mat.
Unless 'T-City' has been caught up by father time, then, it feels likely that he'll be the kryptonite for Lopes - essentially a better version of him. The pick is Ortega via decision.
In a lightweight clash, popular Mexican prospect Daniel Zellhuber takes on Esteban Ribovics. While Zellhuber is still unproven at the top level, this just doesn't feel like the kind of fight to truly test him.
Outside of his debut loss, 'The Golden Boy' has looked fantastic in his octagon run, dispatching Christos Giagos with a slick anaconda choke and then out-brawling the flashy Francisco Prado.
Rather than match the Mexican with a higher-level foe, the UFC have instead put him up against a fellow prospect in Ribovics. Like Zellhuber, the Argentine lost his octagon debut but has since won his last two. His most recent fight saw him dispatch Terrence McKinney with an insane head kick.
Despite this, Zellhuber should have enough to pull through here. Ribovics just isn't proven enough just yet, and 'The Golden Boy' dealt with a similar fighter in Prado last time out. Assuming he doesn't walk into a killer blow, the pick is Zellhuber via decision.
Finally, in a curious main card choice, flyweight prospect Ronaldo Rodriguez faces Ode Osbourne.
While he isn't a big name yet, Rodriguez does appear to have plenty of talent. Riding a six-fight win streak, 'Lazy Boy' looked excellent in his octagon debut against Denys Bondar, displaying an iron chin and slick ground skills to win.
Osbourne has more octagon experience, is an explosive athlete, and has looked good in spits and spats. However, 'The Jamaican Sensation' tends to slow down during his fights, and notably, he's lost his last two via submission.
Osbourne is capable of taking Rodriguez out in a wild rush, but it honestly doesn't seem likely. Instead, expect 'Lazy Boy' to take the veteran down and work him over. The pick is Rodriguez via submission.
#4. Noche UFC 306: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC bantamweight bout: Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont
UFC lightweight bout: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Manuel Torres
UFC strawweight bout: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza
UFC bantamweight bout: Raul Rosas Jr vs. Aori Qileng
UFC flyweight bout: Edgar Chairez vs. Joshua Van
