UFC Predictions: UFC 254 - Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje predictions and picks

#4 UFC Middleweight division: Phil Hawes vs. Jacob Malkoun

Prospect Phil Hawes makes his UFC debut this weekend.

To say that this fight is a strange choice for a main card bout on a major UFC pay-per-view would be an understatement. Not only are both men making their UFC debuts, but Australia’s Malkoun is just 4-0 in his professional MMA career. In fact, he hasn’t fought since October 2019, and footage on him appears to be hard to come by.

From what is available, Mamba appears to be a decently well-rounded fighter. His striking looks solid if a little predictable, and his grappling doesn’t look half bad either. However, it’s not like he’s a renowned prospect. So how did such an inexperienced fighter earn a UFC contract?

The most likely explanation is his connection to former UFC Middleweight champ Robert Whittaker. Malkoun is one of Whittaker’s primary training partners, and has cornered him on numerous occasions.

And while he doesn’t have a reputation close to that of The Reaper, he did compete alongside him in 2019’s Asian ADCC grappling trials, qualifying for the prestigious tournament before withdrawing due to injury.

So how does he match up against fellow debutant Hawes? Well, it’s hard not to imagine him struggling somewhat. A vaunted prospect a handful of years ago, Hawes has taken the long route to the UFC. With a big reputation from the Jackson-Wink camp, Megatron emerged in 2014, sporting a cartoonish physique and a national junior college championship in wrestling.

However, after putting together a 3-0 record on the regional circuit, Hawes failed in an attempt to make it onto the 23rd season of The Ultimate Fighter. And in 2017, he lost another attempt at making it into the UFC when he was knocked out by Julian Marquez on Dana White’s Contender Series.

But Hawes continued to plug away, and after winning a further three fights, he returned to DWCS to pick up a TKO victory in September. Now aged 31, Hawes appears to have everything he needs – athletic ability, more honed skills and more experience – to succeed in the UFC.

Given the dearth of footage on Malkoun, it’s a little hard to say exactly how this fight will go. Training with Whittaker sounds like great preparation, but we’ve seen training partners of UFC greats struggle before. Names like Artem Lobov and Tiki Ghosn come to mind, but they only top the list really.

However, given that he seems to be a far lesser athlete than Hawes and has much less experience in MMA overall than Megatron, I’m going with the clear pick. Malkoun might come out more aggressively, but I suspect Hawes will use his wrestling to his advantage and abuse the Aussie physically, picking up a TKO win.

The Pick: Hawes via first-round TKO