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#5 UFC Flyweight division: Lauren Murphy vs. Liliya Shakirova

UFC Flyweight contender Lauren Murphy is faced with a debutant this weekend.

It must be said, this is a curious fight for a UFC pay-per-view main card. Murphy is on an excellent run at Flyweight – she’s picked up three straight wins, including a victory over Roxanne Modafferi. Realistically, she’s probably two wins at most from a shot at the UFC Flyweight champion, whether that’s Valentina Shevchenko or Jennifer Maia.

This show would initially have seen her facing Cynthia Calvillo, and the winner could well have taken the next title shot. However, with Calvillo sidelined due to a positive COVID-19 test, newcomer Shakirova has stepped in on very short notice – less than a week. Can she spring an upset?

In all honesty, it’s doubtful. Judging by the very little footage available of her, Shakirova is a willing striker, but not one who’s all that skilled. The native of Uzbekistan appears to be a brawler first and foremost, winging hard shots at her opponent but not always landing cleanly.

On the ground, she seems passable enough too, but again, nothing from her clips appears to stand out. She certainly doesn’t appear to be a grappler on the level of Murphy’s previous opponent Modafferi. And with just nine fights on her record dating back to 2015 – largely against low-level opponents – there’s nothing to suggest she’s ready for this kind of level.

Overall, you have to credit the UFC here as they’ve been able to find Murphy an opponent on very late notice, meaning she can at least stay on the card. However, it does appear that Shakirova might’ve been the only woman willing to take such a tricky fight on such notice.

Murphy isn’t the best finisher on the UFC’s roster, but she hits hard, is excellent in all areas, and has finished lower-level opponents before. This, therefore, represents a good chance for her to pick up a highlight reel stoppage, pushing her claim for a UFC title shot even further.

It seems doubtful that Murphy can finish the newcomer in the opening round, as she’s only ever picked up one first-round stoppage in her whole career. But it’s easy to imagine her comfortably absorbing some aggression before working the newcomer over for a late TKO. I suspect, in fact, that she’ll do just that.

The Pick: Murphy via second-round TKO