UFC Predictions: UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez - Predictions and Picks

This Saturday sees the UFC headline a pay-per-view with a UFC Flyweight title fight for the first time since 2015, as Deiveson Figueiredo defends his title against challenger Alex Perez.

The co-main event also sees a UFC Flyweight title on the line, as Valentina Shevchenko defends the women’s version against Jennifer Maia.

Overall it isn’t the strongest UFC pay-per-view of 2020, but there’s still plenty to like and to analyze here.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez.

Also, listen in to the Cage Theory podcast as they look forward to UFC 255 and talk about everything you need to know ahead of the event!

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#1 UFC Flyweight Title: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez

Deiveson Figueiredo is the UFC Flyweight division's most powerful puncher.

After needing to defeat Joseph Benavidez on two occasions – one after missing weight – to claim the vacant UFC Flyweight crown, this will be Figueiredo’s first title defense. Of course, because it’s 2020, Perez wasn’t the first opponent that the UFC had in mind for the Brazilian.

That was, of course, former UFC Bantamweight champ Cody Garbrandt, who would’ve dropped to 125lbs for the first time to take his opportunity. However, last month it was announced that Garbrandt had torn his bicep, and so Perez – who is currently 6-1 in the UFC – would step in instead.

Fascinatingly, this fight marks the first time that a graduate of Dana White’s Contender Series will challenge for a UFC title. So can Perez pull it off?

It’ll be a hugely tricky ask. Simply put, Figueiredo is an absolute monster inside the Octagon. The God of War debuted in the UFC back in 2017 after going 11-0 on the regional circuit and has since put together an 8-1 record in the promotion.

Originally fighting under the tutelage of former UFC stars Iuri and Ildemar Alcantara, power is the name of the game for Figueiredo. A ridiculously powerful Flyweight, it doesn’t matter whether he’s on the ground or on the feet – he’s aiming to hurt his opponents with brute force.

That isn’t to say that Figueiredo isn’t a technical fighter, too. His combination striking is amongst the best that the UFC has to offer, and he’s also a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. But the mere fact that he’s finished six of his eight UFC victims tells you a lot, particularly in a division where a lot of fights go the distance.

Thus far, the only man to really give Figueiredo problems was Jussier Formiga, who stands out as the only man to defeat The God of War. Wrestler Jared Brooks did take him to a split decision in 2017, too, but realistically, Figueiredo won that fight comfortably despite giving up takedowns. So how did Formiga succeed?

Essentially, he was able to use a patient approach in his striking to set up his takedowns – and obviously, it helped that he’s a legitimate world-class grappler who can hold any fighter down. However, based on the rest of Figueiredo’s UFC tenure, there’s also an argument that he simply caught The God of War on an off-day.

Perez, to be fair, definitely has a skill-set that could bode for some success against Figueiredo. For the most part, the challenger is reliant on his speed rather than power. Perez tends to fling rapid-fire strikes at his opponents, using them to both cause damage and to allow him to get inside. From there, he tends to continue firing clinch-based shots before looking for takedowns.

On the ground, Perez is an excellent grappler who’s clearly adept at capitalizing on opportunities. We saw this in his UFC submissions of Carls John de Tomas and Jordan Espinosa, and in his Contender Series tapout of Kevin Gray.

Obviously, his biggest win came at UFC 250, when he took out Formiga in the first round with a series of vicious leg kicks. Essentially, like John Dodson and Joseph Benavidez before him, Perez was able to succeed against the Brazilian, where Figueiredo failed simply because of his massive speed advantage.

So basically, this title fight should come down to speed vs. power. However, where I see problems arising for Perez is that while he loves to fire rapid strikes at his opponent, he’s also open to being hit back. That’s what cost him against Benavidez – who knocked Perez out in 2018 – and could’ve gotten him into trouble in some of his other UFC fights, too.

If Perez comes into this fight with the same attitude he’s come into his other UFC fights with, the likelihood is that he’s going to get knocked out. The problem is that he just doesn’t seem capable of the measured, patient approach that Formiga took against Figueiredo.

Perez is aggressive to a fault, and so we’re likely in for a wild, absolutely tremendous fight on Saturday. But for as much as he’ll want to take the fight to the champ, his usual gameplan will probably play into Figueiredo’s hands. With a striker as powerful as Figueiredo, it’s too dangerous to trade shots, and Perez will probably find that out the hard way.

The Pick: Figueiredo via second-round KO

#2 UFC Flyweight Title: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia

Can Jennifer Maia be the fighter to dethrone the great Valentina Shevchenko?

Right now, it’s hard to argue that the UFC has a more dominant champion than Valentina Shevchenko. The Bullet is 19-3 in MMA with a UFC record of 8-2, and her only losses in the Octagon have come to UFC Bantamweight and Featherweight champion Amanda Nunes.

More to the point, since dropping to 125lbs in early 2018, she’s been absolutely unstoppable. Shevchenko destroyed the overmatched Priscila Cachoeira in her divisional debut and then claimed the vacant UFC title by easily beating Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Since then, she’s reeled off three title defenses, making each one look easy. She took out Jessica Eye and Katlyn Chookagian with extreme violence, and while her win over Liz Carmouche was dull, it was a ridiculously one-sided fight.

Essentially, the only thing preventing Shevchenko from being considered the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet is that she’s suffering from the same issue as Demetrious Johnson once did – a lack of credible challengers.

As the UFC women’s Flyweight division is so thin, Shevchenko’s challengers have all been largely underwhelming – usually coming off just a couple of wins in the division after dropping down from Bantamweight.

So what of this show’s challenger, Maia? The Brazilian at least has a long and storied history as a Flyweight. She was the long-standing champion in Invicta’s Flyweight division before joining the UFC and has largely been fighting at 125lbs for her entire career.

Maia is experienced – she’s 18-6-1 overall and 3-2 in the UFC – and has plenty of dangerous skills. But can she use them to defeat Shevchenko? On the feet, she’s a very capable Muay Thai stylist. Fighting out of the famed Chute Boxe academy, she comes into fights with the style you’d expect from that camp, with a lot of aggression in her punches, knees, and kicks.

However, a lack of power has let her down, particularly in the UFC. She’s only got four KO’s to her name and was outpointed by Katlyn Chookagian in a fight that largely took place standing, basically because she simply couldn’t really hurt the former UFC title challenger.

Against Shevchenko, a precision striker with plenty of power in her shots – Maia is likely to find herself in trouble if she decides to kickbox in this fight. Not only does Shevchenko hit harder, but she’s technically a far superior striker too.

That means that to win this one, Maia’s probably going to have to take the fight to the ground. She’s a genuine Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and picked up her last UFC win impressively, submitting Joanne Calderwood with an armbar.

But again, has she really demonstrated at any point that she could outgrapple Shevchenko? In all honesty, the answer is no. Not only is The Bullet an extremely underrated wrestler – she stuffed the takedowns of Carmouche and threw Jedrzejczyk around like a rag doll. But she’s also very dangerous on the ground.

Shevchenko dominated Cachoeira on the mat, and in her Bantamweight days, even tapped out Julianna Pena, who’s a tremendous grappler in her own right. Sure, Nunes was able to hold her down in their first meeting, largely winning the fight that way. But even she found herself in trouble on the ground in the final round.

Basically, it’s hard to see Maia having any kind of success here. She’s a great fighter in her own right, but like all of the Flyweight division right now, she’s overmatched against Shevchenko.

In all honesty, The Bullet should be able to win in any fashion that she chooses. I suspect she’ll look to keep the fight standing and either outpoint Maia or put her away if she can land cleanly.

Either way, the chance of a new UFC champion being crowned this weekend is highly unlikely.

The Pick: Shevchenko via third-round TKO

#3 UFC Welterweight Division: Mike Perry vs. Tim Means

Can Mike Perry return to form against Tim Means this weekend?

In all honesty, it’s a bit of a surprise that Perry has been booked on this card given his recent issues with accusations of domestic violence. However, it appears that the UFC are willing to brush the accusations under the carpet and continue on as normal with Platinum.

Initially pegged to face former UFC Welterweight champion Robbie Lawler here, instead Perry finds himself faced with longtime veteran Means. So will Perry’s brute-force power punching or Means’ dangerous clinch striking win the day?

Perry’s career path remains one of the more interesting in the UFC right now. When he debuted in the UFC back in 2016, it appeared that the promotion had found a modern-day Phil Baroni, all wild confidence, trash talk, and massive power punches. Two straight wins by KO made him a man to watch.

However, over the next few years, losses to the likes of Santiago Ponzinibbio, Max Griffin, and Alan Jouban suggested that those Baroni comparisons were even closer than anyone had expected.

Like Baroni, Perry was capable of KOing any opponent. But if an opponent could avoid his power punching, use movement and technical striking to land their own shots, or take him to the ground, he was in trouble.

And essentially, things haven’t really changed for Perry. His most recent UFC win – over Mickey Gall – saw him show a few new wrinkles in his ground game. But to tell the truth, Gall was always physically overmatched in that fight.

Means, on the other hand, shouldn’t be physically overmatched at all. A longtime veteran whose MMA career dates back to 2004 – he’s been in the UFC since 2012. The Dirty Bird is primarily a striker, although he’s a perfectly competent grappler, too.

The biggest strength Means has is his range and length. Despite once fighting at 155lbs, he’s a tall, lanky fighter who stands at 6’2” and possesses a 75” reach. That gives him a big advantage over Perry in this fight, as Platinum is only 5’10”.

However, Means’ style means that he’ll be playing a risky game. The Dirty Bird doesn’t tend to sit behind a jab and look to use his range like you’d expect. Instead, he tends to look to grab his opponent in the clinch, where he can abuse them with sharp knees and elbows.

Against Perry, though, a man with concussive power? Looking for the clinch could be a mistake. Perry’s adept at striking from close range himself, as we saw when he knocked out both Jake Ellenberger and Danny Roberts in UFC action.

And more worryingly, Means is 36 now and is nowhere near as durable as he once was. The Dirty Bird had his lights turned out by Niko Price in 2019, and while he’s won fights since, he simply doesn’t seem to weather punishment as well anymore.

Means can definitely win this fight if he can keep Perry at range and then use his length to trap him in a submission or catch him with something heavy from the clinch. However, the style that Means uses just leaves him too open to Perry’s biggest strengths in my mind. I think Platinum takes this one by KO.

The Pick: Perry via second-round KO

#4 UFC Flyweight Division: Katlyn Chookagian vs. Cynthia Calvillo

Can Cynthia Calvillo become a title contender at Flyweight?

Despite Chookagian’s last fight being a bad loss – a TKO at the hands of Jessica Andrade – there’s still an outside chance that with a win here, she could be right back in title contention. That’s a sign of how thin the UFC women’s Flyweight division is right now, unfortunately.

Calvillo is largely in the same boat. She’s had just one fight at 125lbs thus far – a strong win over former UFC title challenger Jessica Eye – but could easily find herself in a title fight if she can win here. Unfortunately, it’s going to be an extremely tricky task for her.

Calvillo has been compared to a female version of Nick Diaz on numerous occasions. This is largely because she’s an excellent ground-fighter who seems more than happy to trade blows with her opponent on the feet. However, the comparison also comes because while her ground game is excellent, we’ve seen on a few occasions that she struggles to get fights down.

She dominated Marina Rodriguez on the ground, for instance, but ended up with a draw rather than a win because she was outmatched when Rodriguez stopped her takedown. And Carla Esparza – the fighter responsible for her lone loss – was also a superior wrestler.

Chookagian isn’t a perfect fighter by any means, largely because she lacks any kind of finishing ability. All of her seven UFC wins have come by decision, but she’s still highly skilled in all areas. On the feet, she’s a highly accurate striker, with a long, 68” reach. She's strong on the ground, too, as we saw when she defeated Antonina Shevchenko this summer.

It’s probably a fair argument that Calvillo might be the superior grappler in this fight, but can she really get the fight to the ground? I’m not convinced. Chookagian is far, far bigger than her, possesses strong takedown defense, and is highly likely to keep Calvillo at the end of her strikes, too.

Overall, I’m not quite sure why the UFC have booked this fight. Calvillo could’ve made a decent opponent for Shevchenko had she been positioned to string some wins together. However, in my mind, at least, this fight is one of the worst possible stylistic clashes for her in the division.

For Blonde Fighter, though, it should be business as usual – giving her an eighth UFC win by decision.

The Pick: Chookagian via unanimous decision

#5 UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Paul Craig

Can Paul Craig finish the job when he faces Shogun Rua this weekend?

The most likely outcome in this fight is going to be a sad one for most UFC fans. For longtime fans of MMA – and even fans who’ve only ever watched the UFC – Shogun Rua is a genuine legend. There’s a genuine argument that – Jon Jones aside – he may even be the greatest Light Heavyweight in MMA history.

However, there’s also a genuine argument to suggest that he should’ve retired at least five years ago. Sure, you have to go back to the summer of 2018 to find the last time Shogun lost. But realistically, at the age of 38, the former UFC champion is painfully past his prime.

His last fight saw him slug it out with fellow MMA geriatric Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. And while Shogun picked up a split decision win, against any other fighter, he may well have been toast. This fight, with Scotland’s Craig, is actually a rematch of a fight that took place almost exactly a year ago.

That fight saw Craig take the fight to Rua early, almost putting him away in the opening round with an absolute barrage of strikes. However, when the Scotsman gassed out, Rua was able to use his takedowns to keep Bearjew grounded for long enough to secure a split draw.

The fight almost encapsulated Craig’s issues in a nutshell, too. The Scotsman is a willing striker, but his penchant for fighting too openly has often gotten him into trouble in the UFC – leading to his KO losses at the hands of Khalil Rountree and Alonzo Menifield.

He’s far more of a grappler, but even on the ground, his wide-open style can be a blessing or a curse. He’s submitted far more athletic foes like Magomed Ankalaev, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Vinicius Moreira with his grappling. But equally, his wrestling isn’t that great and he leaves himself open to ground strikes, too.

Usually, having a style like that would make a fighter tailor-made to be beaten by someone of Shogun’s skill-set. In his PRIDE or UFC prime, Shogun would’ve no doubt destroyed Craig inside a round at worst. However, this version of Shogun is horribly shop-worn, is pushing 40 years old, and almost lost to Craig a year ago.

With another year’s mileage onto his battered body and his punching power seemingly waning, based on that Nogueira fight? I just can’t trust him to win a fight against any UFC-level opponent right now, not even one as flawed as Craig. With that in mind, I’m taking Craig to pull off a big ‘name’ win, probably by TKO.

The Pick: Craig via second-round TKO

#6 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card

Streaking Flyweight Brandon Royval headlines this weekend's prelims

The UFC will present seven preliminary fights on ESPN+ this weekend, and like the main card, a key Flyweight battle sits at the top.

In this case, it sees Brandon Moreno take on Brandon Royval. It’s highly likely that the winner here could receive a title shot in the near future. And if Figueiredo or Perez is forced out this week, then one of these two will probably step in. But who will win?

Moreno is an excellent fighter overall, and while his grappling is his best area, he’s also a capable striker. Royval, on the other hand, has been awesome since he debuted in the UFC earlier this year, submitting both Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France with deadly skills.

This one is a close fight to call, but right now, I’m leaning slightly towards Royval, who appears to be a little more polished even if he doesn’t have the experience levels of his opponent. I’m taking Royval by decision.

At Middleweight, Joaquin Buckley – who scored one of the UFC’s greatest-ever knockouts in October – returns to face Jordan Wright. It’s a curious choice as I suspected the UFC would look to push Buckley onto the main card in his next fight. But perhaps they don’t trust him to be able to follow it up.

Essentially, the UFC have likely put this together simply because Wright won his UFC debut by spinning kick, meaning they’ll be hoping for a repeat – either way it goes. This one is a tough fight to pick as Wright looked pretty decent in his UFC debut at 205lbs, while Buckley usually fights at 170lbs. And so I’m leaning towards Wright to pick up another win here, probably by KO.

At Flyweight, an interesting clash sees Antonina Shevchenko face Ariane Lipski. Lipski – known as The Violence Queen – is coming off an all-time great submission win, as she almost snapped Luana Carolina’s leg in half in July. Shevchenko, meanwhile, was last seen in a loss to Katlyn Chookagian.

This one’s a tricky fight to pick as Shevchenko is clearly the more polished fighter. But Lipski brings a lot of aggression and I think she’s better on the ground than Pantera, who has shown weaknesses there before. I’m going with the upset here – and taking Lipski to win by submission.

At Welterweight, the talented Daniel Rodriguez faces Nicolas Dalby. Rodriguez is taking this fight on short notice, but was training for a clash at UFC Vegas 14 last week, so should still be in good shape.

This fight looks tailor-made for him, too. Dalby is an excellent technical striker, but he’s not the greatest athlete and has struggled on the ground before. Rodriguez, meanwhile, has great skills in all areas but particularly shines on the ground. I like him to win by decision or submission here.

In another Welterweight clash, veteran Alan Jouban takes on Jared Gooden. Jouban is definitely the more proven fighter here – he’s 7-5 in the UFC – but he hasn’t fought in well over a year. Gooden, meanwhile, is making his UFC debut, but he hits extremely hard. And Jouban also doesn’t weather punishment like he once did. This is a close one to call, but I’m taking the newcomer, probably by stoppage.

In a Middleweight bout, Germany’s Dustin Stolzfus faces Kyle Daukaus. Stolzfus is a real finisher, with only five of his 13 wins going the distance, but it’s safe to say that he’s never fought an opponent close to the UFC level yet. Daukaus, meanwhile, put on an excellent UFC debut in losing to Brendan Allen and looks strong in all areas.

It’s a close fight, but I like Daukaus to grind out a decision in this one.

Finally, newcomers Louis Cosce and Sasha Palatnikov face off at Welterweight. Both men are making their UFC debuts, are inexperienced and unproven, but I like Cosce here. He looked like a real killer in his Contender Series appearance, KOing his foe in just over a minute, and Palatnikov has been KO’d recently by fellow UFC fighter Mounir Lazzez. I’ll take Cosce to start the show with a bang, winning by KO.