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#5 UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Paul Craig

Can Paul Craig finish the job when he faces Shogun Rua this weekend?

The most likely outcome in this fight is going to be a sad one for most UFC fans. For longtime fans of MMA – and even fans who’ve only ever watched the UFC – Shogun Rua is a genuine legend. There’s a genuine argument that – Jon Jones aside – he may even be the greatest Light Heavyweight in MMA history.

However, there’s also a genuine argument to suggest that he should’ve retired at least five years ago. Sure, you have to go back to the summer of 2018 to find the last time Shogun lost. But realistically, at the age of 38, the former UFC champion is painfully past his prime.

His last fight saw him slug it out with fellow MMA geriatric Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. And while Shogun picked up a split decision win, against any other fighter, he may well have been toast. This fight, with Scotland’s Craig, is actually a rematch of a fight that took place almost exactly a year ago.

That fight saw Craig take the fight to Rua early, almost putting him away in the opening round with an absolute barrage of strikes. However, when the Scotsman gassed out, Rua was able to use his takedowns to keep Bearjew grounded for long enough to secure a split draw.

The fight almost encapsulated Craig’s issues in a nutshell, too. The Scotsman is a willing striker, but his penchant for fighting too openly has often gotten him into trouble in the UFC – leading to his KO losses at the hands of Khalil Rountree and Alonzo Menifield.

He’s far more of a grappler, but even on the ground, his wide-open style can be a blessing or a curse. He’s submitted far more athletic foes like Magomed Ankalaev, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Vinicius Moreira with his grappling. But equally, his wrestling isn’t that great and he leaves himself open to ground strikes, too.

Usually, having a style like that would make a fighter tailor-made to be beaten by someone of Shogun’s skill-set. In his PRIDE or UFC prime, Shogun would’ve no doubt destroyed Craig inside a round at worst. However, this version of Shogun is horribly shop-worn, is pushing 40 years old, and almost lost to Craig a year ago.

With another year’s mileage onto his battered body and his punching power seemingly waning, based on that Nogueira fight? I just can’t trust him to win a fight against any UFC-level opponent right now, not even one as flawed as Craig. With that in mind, I’m taking Craig to pull off a big ‘name’ win, probably by TKO.

The Pick: Craig via second-round TKO