UFC Predictions: UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno Predictions and Picks

After a couple of weaker UFC cards, this weekend sees the promotion return to pay-per-view with UFC 256. And while the show features a main event thrown together on late notice, overall, this is a pretty cool-looking card.

The main event sees the UFC Flyweight title on the line as Deiveson Figueiredo defends against Brandon Moreno. On the other hand, the UFC Lightweight division is spotlighted in the co-main event in the form of Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira.

Of course, the whole thing is dependent on late-notice changes – COVID-19 is bound to affect one of these fights at least. But overall, this looks like a potentially strong UFC show.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno.

Also tune in to the Cage Theory MMA podcast, where the upcoming UFC 256 event is discussed in detail!

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#1 UFC Flyweight Title: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno

Deiveson Figueiredo only defended his UFC Flyweight title a few weeks ago.

Incredibly, this title fight was put together just three weeks before this show, making it one of the fastest championship turnarounds in UFC history. Other former UFC champions like Tito Ortiz and Matt Hughes defended their titles on back-to-back pay-per-views. But they at least had months between those shows.

Simply put, the fact that Figueiredo’s been willing to take this fight makes him a total madman. However, it’s also worth noting that Moreno, his challenger, also fought on November 21st and actually had a longer fight. Really then, both men deserve massive credit.

UFC 255 was a good show for both fighters. Figueiredo dispatched top contender Alex Perez with a guillotine choke in just under two minutes, while Moreno took a little longer to defeat Brandon Royval when Royval’s shoulder was dislocated.

It’s worth noting that while Figueiredo was barely tested in his fight, Moreno definitely was. His fight was a back-and-forth affair that could well have gone either way had Royval not been injured. However, there’s no denying that The Assassin Baby is a dangerous contender.

Moreno is 6-2-1 in the UFC, and he’s looked better than ever since returning in 2019. Prior to defeating Royval, he took out the unbeaten Kai Kara-France, and then defeated long-time UFC veteran Jussier Formiga.

Primarily a grappler, the Mexican native has excellent takedowns, is strong, particularly from the top, and has a good submission game too. However, we’ve also seen him run into some trouble in the UFC, particularly in his losses but also in some of his other fights.

Firstly, while he’s a willing striker, he’s also overly wild with his punches and kicks. He’s more than happy to come flying in with crazy aggression. And in his UFC losses to both Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja, that style led directly to his downfall.

His fight with Pantoja and his draw with Askar Askarov also showed that while he’s a great grappler from the scramble, he’s also susceptible to putting himself into bad positions, largely due to his own aggression.

The Pantoja fight is perhaps the most telling in terms of how he matches with Figueiredo because essentially, the current UFC champ could easily be seen as a souped-up version of his countryman. Pantoja has amazing submission skills and hits heavily, but he lacks the sheer athleticism and explosiveness of The God of War.

However, the fact that Figueiredo is such an explosive fighter could play into Moreno’s hands. Sure, The God of War has incredible technique in his offense, as we’ve seen throughout his UFC career. However, he’s also more than willing to simply throw down with an opponent, which could give Moreno the opening he needs.

Personally, though, I can’t see it happening. To me, Moreno is outgunned in all areas in this fight. And even if Figueiredo goes toe-to-toe with him, does he have a lot to be worried about? Well, not really. Moreno’s never knocked an opponent out in the UFC and just doesn’t have the kind of concussive power that Figueiredo possesses.

And while he is excellent at catching a foe with a submission in the scramble, it’s hard to imagine him catching a grappler as good as Figueiredo, particularly after seeing him struggle with Pantoja and Askarov.

Basically, it’s going to take a technically proficient, incredibly calm fighter to defeat Figueiredo, probably using a similar gameplan that Formiga did when he caught the champ on an off-day in 2019. I just don’t see Moreno as that fighter.

The Assassin Baby might survive for longer than Perez did, but I still don’t see this leaving the second round. Figueiredo by TKO is my pick.

The Pick: Figueiredo via second-round TKO

#2 UFC Lightweight Division: Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira

Tony Ferguson will be hoping to reenter title contention in the UFC Lightweight division.

Well, it must be said, this is an absolutely brilliant sounding fight and some great matchmaking from the UFC. The last time we saw Ferguson in the UFC, he saw a 12-fight win streak snapped violently by Justin Gaethje – robbing us of the Khabib/Ferguson dream match in the process.

Oliveira, meanwhile, last competed on the first UFC show to take place behind closed doors. That came at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March and saw Do Bronx impress massively by submitting Kevin Lee.

Essentially, with the UFC Lightweight title now vacant due to Khabib’s retirement, the winner of this one could easily be plugged in against the McGregor/Poirier winner to decide the next champion. And to be quite honest, regardless of the winner, they’d deserve a shot.

We all know about Ferguson’s game by now. El Cucuy has skills in all areas, but perhaps his most dangerous asset is his ability to push a ridiculous pace. Even when Gaethje was badly hurting him, he kept coming forward – and in the UFC, he’s forced most of his opponents to wilt.

Ferguson’s striking game tends to work due to his reach, explosiveness, his willingness to throw low-percentage shots like elbows, and spinning attacks when his opponent least expects it.

And his ground game is similar, too. He’ll dive on submissions or attempt Imanari rolls when his opponent is expecting him to be striking. All of his fights seem to hit the ground and yet I can barely recall him shooting on a double leg.

Why El Cucuy fell apart against Gaethje is simple to understand. Essentially, he appeared to underestimate Gaethje’s power, which was understandable given the shots he’d absorbed from the likes of Anthony Pettis and Rafael dos Anjos. However, he also underestimated how patient Gaethje would play things, which meant he didn’t gas out as most people expected.

The loss to Gaethje was the kind of loss that could well change a fighter’s career. Ferguson took more punishment in that single fight than he’d done in his entire UFC tenure. And how well he’ll be able to recover from it is a bit of a question mark.

Thankfully for him, though, Oliveira is about as far from Gaethje in terms of style as you could find. Sure, Do Bronx is a massively improved striker, as we saw in 2019 when he picked up his first UFC knockouts over Nik Lentz and Jared Gordon.

However, his bread and butter is in his ground game. With a ridiculous 14 submission wins in the UFC alone, it’s probably fair to suggest that he’s one of the most dangerous grapplers in UFC history.

However, unlike the patient Demian Maia – usually his closest rival for the title of UFC’s best submission expert – Oliveira is all about raw aggression on the ground.

He’ll attack from his guard and from the top like no other fighter. And if he can’t latch onto a more textbook submission, he’s more than willing to go for low-percentage holds, too. There’s a reason he’s the only man to submit an opponent with a calf slicer in the UFC, for instance.

Traditionally, where Oliveira has struggled has been in terms of durability. He’s got eight UFC losses on his ledger, but only one of them came by decision. He’s been tapped out three times and knocked out four times, and historically, he really struggled with durability.

That issue seems to have improved since his permanent move to 155lbs and may well come from the fact that at 31 years old, he’s now grown fully into his frame. But it’s still easy to remember him seemingly wilting in UFC losses to the likes of Paul Felder and Cub Swanson.

Overall, this is a tricky fight to pick. On the feet, you’d have to favor Ferguson. He’s got much more technically proficient striking, hits extremely hard, and takes a shot much better than Oliveira. However, will he be gun shy after the Gaethje fight? It’s a big question mark.

On the ground, though, despite Ferguson’s undeniable skills, he’s probably outmatched by Oliveira’s venomous submission game. And the willingness of El Cucuy to go to the ground could well prove to be dangerous in this fight. If he tries to go hold-for-hold with Oliveira, he might find himself in trouble.

For me, while there are question marks over Ferguson right now, I think he’s still got enough to win this fight. Oliveira has developed hugely, but I still question his ability to stay in a fight against an opponent who hits as hard as Ferguson and who’s willing to push such a torrid pace.

Oliveira might have his moments, but I think he’ll wilt in the second round once the going gets too tough.

The Pick: Ferguson via second-round TKO

#3 UFC Lightweight Division: Renato Moicano vs. Rafael Fiziev

Renato Moicano made a successful UFC Lightweight debut this March.

Like Oliveira, the last time we saw Moicano in the UFC was back on the first behind-closed-doors card in March. That show saw the Brazilian move up to 155lbs for the first time, where he choked out the overmatched Damir Hadzovic in just 44 seconds. So can he pull it off again and claim his second UFC win at Lightweight?

Well, Fiziev should hopefully provide a sterner test for Moicano, but I’m not sure he’s got enough to actually beat him. The native of Kyrgyzstan debuted in the UFC in early 2019 with a reputation as a strong Muay Thai striker.

However, he was beaten in his debut fight by Magomed Mustafaev, who knocked him out with a wild spinning back kick. His next two UFC fights have been better, though, taking decision wins over Alex White and Marc Diakiese.

The Diakiese win was particularly impressive, as Fiziev used expert timing and accuracy to largely outstrike a dangerous opponent with serious KO power. What worries me here, though, is that he’s never fought an opponent as skilled in all areas as Moicano.

Moicano has been in the UFC since 2014, and for the most part, he’s looked fantastic. Wins over the likes of Jeremy Stephens, Calvin Kattar, and Cub Swanson put him into UFC title contention at 145lbs. But losses to Jose Aldo and The Korean Zombie Chan Sung Jung prevented any kind of title run, forcing him up to 155lbs instead.

You can’t really hold those losses against Moicano, though. Both Aldo and the Zombie are among the best strikers in the UFC, period. And the Zombie, in particular, hits ludicrously hard. It certainly doesn’t mean that Moicano isn’t an excellent striker himself.

In fact, the Brazilian has great skills standing. He’s more than willing to work behind his jab – which tends to work due to his 72” reach. And his leg kicks are truly vicious, as both Kattar and Stephens found out.

And on the ground, he’s highly dangerous—anyone who can submit a grappler as good as Swanson has to be serious. And with a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and seven submissions on his ledger, it’s clear he’s highly talented.

More interestingly, Moicano shouldn’t be the smaller man in this fight despite being a former 145lber. At 5’11, he’s three inches taller than Fiziev and also has a two-inch reach advantage.

Moicano’s UFC losses have largely come from him being too willing to engage in firefights, particularly against Brian Ortega – who hurt and then submitted him – and the Zombie.

But I’m not sure that’s likely to happen against Fiziev. The Kyrgyzstani is more of a technical kickboxer than either of those fighters, meaning he probably won’t look to brawl.

To me, that probably plays into Moicano’s hands. Fiziev might well be able to do well against the Brazilian on the feet – and could even beat him there. But he’s probably going to be worried about the takedown enough to not really let his strikes go. And if Moicano does take him down, then I think this one is over.

In the end, I’ve got to side with the fighter with more tools to win – and so I’m going with Moicano to pick up his second win in the UFC Lightweight division, probably by submission.

The Pick: Moicano via first-round submission

#4 UFC Middleweight division: Kevin Holland vs. Jacare Souza

Jacare Souza is hoping for his first UFC win since knocking out Chris Weidman in 2018.

Okay, so I’m going to preface this by saying that I don’t see this fight actually going ahead. Holland was removed from last weekend’s UFC main event due to a positive COVID-19 test, and so how he’s expecting to be free of the virus a week later is beyond me. Last time we saw someone try to do something similar – Ion Cutelaba – his fight was scrapped.

Still, if the fight does go ahead, how do these two match up? For starters, this is a massive step up in competition for Holland. The Trailblazer has been on a phenomenal run this year, defeating four opponents in the UFC and finishing three of them. There’s an argument that he’s one of the standout UFC fighters of 2020.

However, it’s definitely worth noting that at least two of those opponents – Anthony Hernandez and Charlie Ontiveros – are probably among the lowest-ranked fighters in the UFC right now. Even Joaquin Buckley isn’t an elite-level opponent despite his recent flashy wins.

Holland’s best UFC win right now is probably Gerald Meerschaert, meaning that a perennial contender like Jacare represents a huge leap for him. So can he really pull this off?

The Trailblazer, in essence, is a classic jack-of-all-trades fighter. He’s got decent skills in all areas and is a high-level athlete, but he’s also not outstanding anywhere, really. That has allowed him to do well in the UFC. His record stands at 7-2 – but it’s also worth noting that his opponents have largely allowed those skills to work.

Meanwhile, when he’s been faced with trickier opponents – Thiago Santos, Darren Stewart, Brendan Allen, Meerschaert – he’s either struggled to really get his game going, or he’s lost.

Jacare is clearly the most dangerous opponent he’s ever faced. One of the most highly credentialed grapplers in UFC history, the Brazilian has submitted the likes of Gegard Mousasi, Tim Boetsch, and Robbie Lawler during his career.

And unlike other Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu players, Jacare isn’t a patient grappler at all. He’s capable of taking most of his opponents down, and his incredible athleticism allows him to really go for submissions in an aggressive way not suited to someone like, say, Demian Maia.

It’s that athleticism that’s also allowed Jacare to develop a very dangerous striking game. Jacare has a nasty jab, can catch opponents with beautiful combinations, and also possesses KO power. We’ve seen him knock out Chris Weidman, Derek Brunson, and Yushin Okami in the UFC with this kickboxing game.

Recently though, Jacare has struggled a little more. Robert Whittaker outstruck him and knocked him out back in 2017, while he’s lost his last two fights to Jack Hermansson and Jan Blachowicz, respectively.

Of those two losses, the Hermansson one was far more telling. The Joker simply pushed a pace too torrid for the then 39-year-old Jacare to keep up with. The Blachowicz fight, on the other hand, was a dull affair that could’ve gone either way, as both men simply clinched up for 25 minutes.

Jacare is another year older now at 40, but I still can’t pick Holland to beat him in good conscience. The Brazilian is definitely more fragile than he was in his prime, but I just don’t buy Holland as an elite-level contender right now.

More to the point, we’ve seen on numerous occasions in the UFC that a jack-of-all-trades usually loses to a specialist, particularly when that specialist has no real weaknesses of his own.

Holland will undoubtedly bring the fight to Jacare, but I believe the Brazilian will ground him and comfortably submit him – picking up his first submission in the UFC since 2017.

The Pick: Souza via first-round submission

#5 UFC Heavyweight Division: Ciryl Gane vs. Junior Dos Santos

Ciryl Gane might be the UFC's best prospect at Heavyweight.

Okay, so to start with, this fight is a brilliant piece of matchmaking from the UFC. The former UFC Heavyweight champion and one of the best fighters in the division’s history, Dos Santos is now 0-3 in his last three outings.

Cigano has also lost all three of those fights by KO. And while he was coming off a three-fight win streak prior to that, it’s worth noting that he simply doesn’t look like the same fighter anymore. He doesn’t weather punishment anywhere near as well, his boxing game appears to have stagnated, and he’s no longer in the shape he was during his prime.

At the age of 36, it’s hardly a surprise. And in fact, there’s an argument to suggest dos Santos should’ve retired following his most recent defeat at the hands of Jairzinho Rozenstruik at UFC 252. But he’s chosen to continue, so the UFC is doing the logical thing – looking to use his name value to build the new kid on the block.

Gane is perhaps the UFC’s very best prospect right now at Heavyweight. The native of France came into the UFC last year with very little experience. He was just 3-0 but had a reputation similar to that of Francis Ngannou when he arrived in the promotion.

If anything, though, Gane has looked even better than Ngannou did at that point. Sure, he hasn’t murdered his foes with brutal striking power as Ngannou did, but he’s out-fought three opponents in every possible area – and ended up finishing two of them with very late submissions.

Injuries have curtailed his UFC run since, and he hasn’t fought in 2020 yet. Assuming he’s fully healthy, though, this could be the chance for him to really break out into the elite level at Heavyweight.

The issue for dos Santos in this fight is that he’s a shopworn, older fighter against a guy who’s incredibly athletically gifted. Gane stands at 6’5” and weighs in at around 265lbs. And unlike some of the UFC’s other Heavyweights, he’s all muscle.

From what we’ve seen of him, he’s also very skilled in all areas, but particularly in his striking. Against Tanner Boser and Don’tale Mayes, for instance, he looked like a Heavyweight version of Alistair Overeem in his PRIDE days - all long strikes from the outside complete with a vicious clinch game.

Dos Santos might have a pure boxing advantage here, as he’s adept at using his jab to set up his bigger strikes. But as he’s gotten older, he’s become far more flat-footed. He was able to jab Blagoy Ivanov and Ben Rothwell to death and even TKO’d Tai Tuivasa, but all three of those fighters are horribly plodding.

Gane certainly isn’t flat-footed, and more to the point, Bon Gamin appears to be capable of corralling an opponent to unload on them. And in the UFC, that’s been dos Santos’ biggest weakness and has led directly to the majority of his losses.

More recently, though, JDS has simply been unable to take a heavy punch. His legs buckled as soon as Rozenstruik hit him cleanly, and the fight was over shortly after. And against Ngannou, he looked worried and panicky from the off and practically walked into the fight-ending shot.

Dos Santos is undoubtedly one of the UFC’s greatest-ever Heavyweights, and he’s got the ability to beat some of the division’s slower prospects. But for me, Gane isn’t amongst them.

He’s the kind of athletic marvel that will probably be able to shellack most opponents despite his lack of experience, and I think he’ll take out JDS in pretty vicious fashion here.

The Pick: Gane via first-round KO

#6 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN2 card

Skilled grappler Mackenzie Dern highlights this weekend's prelims.

The UFC is set to put on three prelim fights on ESPN2 this weekend, although right now, one is up in the air due to a highly predictable reason.

Strawweight veterans Tecia Torres and Angela Hill were initially pegged to face off in a rematch of their 2015 encounter, but Hill has since been forced out with COVID-19. As of the time of writing, no replacement has been found, and so the UFC may well move an earlier prelim up and remove Torres from the card altogether.

Should Torres remain on the card, she’ll likely be faced with an overmatched newcomer. And so, regardless of the opposition, to see The Tiny Tornado with her hand raised is likely.

At the top of the prelim card sits a Featherweight clash between veterans Cub Swanson and Daniel Pineda. Swanson has, of course, been in the UFC for nearly a decade now. And despite suffering four losses in a row between 2017 and 2019, he’s still a relevant contender. Last time we saw him, he overcame Kron Gracie in an amazing brawl.

Meanwhile, Pineda returned to the UFC earlier this year after a strong run in the PFL promotion and impressed by taking out Herbert Burns via TKO. The Pit is a highly-skilled fighter, but I’m not sure he’s better than Swanson in any area. Expect a fun fight, but I’m picking Swanson via decision.

In the Strawweight division, top prospect Mackenzie Dern takes on Virna Jandiroba. On paper, at least, this looks like a tremendous fight. One of the most decorated grapplers in the UFC, people questioned how serious Dern was taking her UFC career. But she’s looked amazing this year – coming in in excellent shape to submit both Hannah Cifers and Randa Markos.

Jandiroba, meanwhile, is a tremendous grappler in her own right, with 13 submissions on her ledger. She’s picked up two straight wins in the UFC via tapout, most recently submitting longtime veteran Felice Herrig.

This should be an excellent fight, but I think Dern has to be favored. She tends to struggle against strikers who she can’t takedown. But Jandiroba is almost a pure grappler, and so it’s likely she’ll look to mix it up with Dern on the mat.

That should be a mistake given Dern’s ridiculous skills and experience in the grappling world, and while the fight could be filled with cool scrambles and exchanges, I like Dern to win by submission.

#7 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+/UFC Fight Pass card

Billy Quarantillo headlines this weekend's early prelims.

Five prelims will also be aired on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass, and at the top of this portion sits a Featherweight clash between Gavin Tucker and Billy Quarantillo.

A well-rounded fighter, Quarantillo has thus far looked fantastic in the UFC. He’s gone 3-0 and has shown skills in all areas while also showing insane toughness in his brawl with Spike Carlyle, one of the better fights of 2020.

Tucker, meanwhile, has fought four times in the UFC since he arrived in 2017. He’s 3-1 and has taken out his last two opponents via submission. Despite Tucker having well-rounded skills, I like Quarantillo here. I think he’s slightly superior in all areas, and we know he’s more than willing to push a torrid pace. Quarantillo via decision is my pick.

In the Heavyweight division, Sergey Spivak faces Jared Vanderaa. This will be Vanderaa’s UFC debut after impressing on Dana White’s Contender Series. He appears to be just what you’d expect coming off that show – somewhat sloppy, but a finisher nonetheless.

Meanwhile, Spivak has done far better than his initial UFC appearance – a loss to Walt Harris – as he’s submitted Tai Tuivasa and outworked Carlos Felipe in his last outing.

For me, this one smacks of the kind of fight that Spivak can win. Vanderaa has a number of submission losses to his name and doesn’t look like the kind of explosive fighter who could get Spivak out quickly. Therefore, I’m taking Spivak via submission.

In the Middleweight division, Karl Roberson faces Dalcha Lungiambula. This will be Lungiambula’s debut at 185lbs, and if he can make the weight, he should be huge in his new weight class. A native of South Africa, Lungiambula is an insanely good athlete, and he’s 1-1 in the UFC, with his loss coming to the outstanding Magomed Ankalaev.

Meanwhile, Roberson is a kickboxer of some regard, but despite going 4-3 in the UFC, there are questions around him, particularly over his ground game. So with that in mind, I think Lungiambula can follow Marvin Vettori’s gameplan and ground Baby K to beat him down, probably for a decision.

At Welterweight, China’s Li Jingliang takes on Dwight Grant. Li hasn’t fought in the UFC since February, when he picked up his first loss in two years against Neil Magny. At his best, The Leech is a fantastic pressure fighter with skills in all areas, even if he’s not really beaten a true top-level opponent.

Meanwhile, Grant was last seen in a KO loss to Daniel Rodriguez, and overall he’s 2-2 in the UFC. Despite Li’s layoff, there’s basically nothing to suggest Grant can beat him here. I think The Leech is better in all areas and should comfortably outwork him for a late TKO.

Finally, in the Featherweight division, Chase Hooper squares off with Peter Barrett. Hooper – one of the UFC’s youngest ever fighters – impressed in his UFC debut but was then outworked by veteran Alex Caceres in his second outing.

Barrett has more experience than Hooper, but he isn’t the hardened veteran that Caceres is. He was also comfortably beaten in his own UFC debut. With that in mind, I’m going with Hooper via submission in this one.