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#2 UFC Lightweight Division: Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira

Tony Ferguson will be hoping to reenter title contention in the UFC Lightweight division.

Well, it must be said, this is an absolutely brilliant sounding fight and some great matchmaking from the UFC. The last time we saw Ferguson in the UFC, he saw a 12-fight win streak snapped violently by Justin Gaethje – robbing us of the Khabib/Ferguson dream match in the process.

Oliveira, meanwhile, last competed on the first UFC show to take place behind closed doors. That came at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March and saw Do Bronx impress massively by submitting Kevin Lee.

Essentially, with the UFC Lightweight title now vacant due to Khabib’s retirement, the winner of this one could easily be plugged in against the McGregor/Poirier winner to decide the next champion. And to be quite honest, regardless of the winner, they’d deserve a shot.

We all know about Ferguson’s game by now. El Cucuy has skills in all areas, but perhaps his most dangerous asset is his ability to push a ridiculous pace. Even when Gaethje was badly hurting him, he kept coming forward – and in the UFC, he’s forced most of his opponents to wilt.

Ferguson’s striking game tends to work due to his reach, explosiveness, his willingness to throw low-percentage shots like elbows, and spinning attacks when his opponent least expects it.

And his ground game is similar, too. He’ll dive on submissions or attempt Imanari rolls when his opponent is expecting him to be striking. All of his fights seem to hit the ground and yet I can barely recall him shooting on a double leg.

Why El Cucuy fell apart against Gaethje is simple to understand. Essentially, he appeared to underestimate Gaethje’s power, which was understandable given the shots he’d absorbed from the likes of Anthony Pettis and Rafael dos Anjos. However, he also underestimated how patient Gaethje would play things, which meant he didn’t gas out as most people expected.

The loss to Gaethje was the kind of loss that could well change a fighter’s career. Ferguson took more punishment in that single fight than he’d done in his entire UFC tenure. And how well he’ll be able to recover from it is a bit of a question mark.

Thankfully for him, though, Oliveira is about as far from Gaethje in terms of style as you could find. Sure, Do Bronx is a massively improved striker, as we saw in 2019 when he picked up his first UFC knockouts over Nik Lentz and Jared Gordon.

However, his bread and butter is in his ground game. With a ridiculous 14 submission wins in the UFC alone, it’s probably fair to suggest that he’s one of the most dangerous grapplers in UFC history.

However, unlike the patient Demian Maia – usually his closest rival for the title of UFC’s best submission expert – Oliveira is all about raw aggression on the ground.

He’ll attack from his guard and from the top like no other fighter. And if he can’t latch onto a more textbook submission, he’s more than willing to go for low-percentage holds, too. There’s a reason he’s the only man to submit an opponent with a calf slicer in the UFC, for instance.

Traditionally, where Oliveira has struggled has been in terms of durability. He’s got eight UFC losses on his ledger, but only one of them came by decision. He’s been tapped out three times and knocked out four times, and historically, he really struggled with durability.

That issue seems to have improved since his permanent move to 155lbs and may well come from the fact that at 31 years old, he’s now grown fully into his frame. But it’s still easy to remember him seemingly wilting in UFC losses to the likes of Paul Felder and Cub Swanson.

Overall, this is a tricky fight to pick. On the feet, you’d have to favor Ferguson. He’s got much more technically proficient striking, hits extremely hard, and takes a shot much better than Oliveira. However, will he be gun shy after the Gaethje fight? It’s a big question mark.

On the ground, though, despite Ferguson’s undeniable skills, he’s probably outmatched by Oliveira’s venomous submission game. And the willingness of El Cucuy to go to the ground could well prove to be dangerous in this fight. If he tries to go hold-for-hold with Oliveira, he might find himself in trouble.

For me, while there are question marks over Ferguson right now, I think he’s still got enough to win this fight. Oliveira has developed hugely, but I still question his ability to stay in a fight against an opponent who hits as hard as Ferguson and who’s willing to push such a torrid pace.

Oliveira might have his moments, but I think he’ll wilt in the second round once the going gets too tough.

The Pick: Ferguson via second-round TKO