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#3 UFC Lightweight Division: Renato Moicano vs. Rafael Fiziev

Renato Moicano made a successful UFC Lightweight debut this March.

Like Oliveira, the last time we saw Moicano in the UFC was back on the first behind-closed-doors card in March. That show saw the Brazilian move up to 155lbs for the first time, where he choked out the overmatched Damir Hadzovic in just 44 seconds. So can he pull it off again and claim his second UFC win at Lightweight?

Well, Fiziev should hopefully provide a sterner test for Moicano, but I’m not sure he’s got enough to actually beat him. The native of Kyrgyzstan debuted in the UFC in early 2019 with a reputation as a strong Muay Thai striker.

However, he was beaten in his debut fight by Magomed Mustafaev, who knocked him out with a wild spinning back kick. His next two UFC fights have been better, though, taking decision wins over Alex White and Marc Diakiese.

The Diakiese win was particularly impressive, as Fiziev used expert timing and accuracy to largely outstrike a dangerous opponent with serious KO power. What worries me here, though, is that he’s never fought an opponent as skilled in all areas as Moicano.

Moicano has been in the UFC since 2014, and for the most part, he’s looked fantastic. Wins over the likes of Jeremy Stephens, Calvin Kattar, and Cub Swanson put him into UFC title contention at 145lbs. But losses to Jose Aldo and The Korean Zombie Chan Sung Jung prevented any kind of title run, forcing him up to 155lbs instead.

You can’t really hold those losses against Moicano, though. Both Aldo and the Zombie are among the best strikers in the UFC, period. And the Zombie, in particular, hits ludicrously hard. It certainly doesn’t mean that Moicano isn’t an excellent striker himself.

In fact, the Brazilian has great skills standing. He’s more than willing to work behind his jab – which tends to work due to his 72” reach. And his leg kicks are truly vicious, as both Kattar and Stephens found out.

And on the ground, he’s highly dangerous—anyone who can submit a grappler as good as Swanson has to be serious. And with a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and seven submissions on his ledger, it’s clear he’s highly talented.

More interestingly, Moicano shouldn’t be the smaller man in this fight despite being a former 145lber. At 5’11, he’s three inches taller than Fiziev and also has a two-inch reach advantage.

Moicano’s UFC losses have largely come from him being too willing to engage in firefights, particularly against Brian Ortega – who hurt and then submitted him – and the Zombie.

But I’m not sure that’s likely to happen against Fiziev. The Kyrgyzstani is more of a technical kickboxer than either of those fighters, meaning he probably won’t look to brawl.

To me, that probably plays into Moicano’s hands. Fiziev might well be able to do well against the Brazilian on the feet – and could even beat him there. But he’s probably going to be worried about the takedown enough to not really let his strikes go. And if Moicano does take him down, then I think this one is over.

In the end, I’ve got to side with the fighter with more tools to win – and so I’m going with Moicano to pick up his second win in the UFC Lightweight division, probably by submission.

The Pick: Moicano via first-round submission