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#4 UFC Middleweight division: Kevin Holland vs. Jacare Souza

Jacare Souza is hoping for his first UFC win since knocking out Chris Weidman in 2018.

Okay, so I’m going to preface this by saying that I don’t see this fight actually going ahead. Holland was removed from last weekend’s UFC main event due to a positive COVID-19 test, and so how he’s expecting to be free of the virus a week later is beyond me. Last time we saw someone try to do something similar – Ion Cutelaba – his fight was scrapped.

Still, if the fight does go ahead, how do these two match up? For starters, this is a massive step up in competition for Holland. The Trailblazer has been on a phenomenal run this year, defeating four opponents in the UFC and finishing three of them. There’s an argument that he’s one of the standout UFC fighters of 2020.

However, it’s definitely worth noting that at least two of those opponents – Anthony Hernandez and Charlie Ontiveros – are probably among the lowest-ranked fighters in the UFC right now. Even Joaquin Buckley isn’t an elite-level opponent despite his recent flashy wins.

Holland’s best UFC win right now is probably Gerald Meerschaert, meaning that a perennial contender like Jacare represents a huge leap for him. So can he really pull this off?

The Trailblazer, in essence, is a classic jack-of-all-trades fighter. He’s got decent skills in all areas and is a high-level athlete, but he’s also not outstanding anywhere, really. That has allowed him to do well in the UFC. His record stands at 7-2 – but it’s also worth noting that his opponents have largely allowed those skills to work.

Meanwhile, when he’s been faced with trickier opponents – Thiago Santos, Darren Stewart, Brendan Allen, Meerschaert – he’s either struggled to really get his game going, or he’s lost.

Jacare is clearly the most dangerous opponent he’s ever faced. One of the most highly credentialed grapplers in UFC history, the Brazilian has submitted the likes of Gegard Mousasi, Tim Boetsch, and Robbie Lawler during his career.

And unlike other Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu players, Jacare isn’t a patient grappler at all. He’s capable of taking most of his opponents down, and his incredible athleticism allows him to really go for submissions in an aggressive way not suited to someone like, say, Demian Maia.

It’s that athleticism that’s also allowed Jacare to develop a very dangerous striking game. Jacare has a nasty jab, can catch opponents with beautiful combinations, and also possesses KO power. We’ve seen him knock out Chris Weidman, Derek Brunson, and Yushin Okami in the UFC with this kickboxing game.

Recently though, Jacare has struggled a little more. Robert Whittaker outstruck him and knocked him out back in 2017, while he’s lost his last two fights to Jack Hermansson and Jan Blachowicz, respectively.

Of those two losses, the Hermansson one was far more telling. The Joker simply pushed a pace too torrid for the then 39-year-old Jacare to keep up with. The Blachowicz fight, on the other hand, was a dull affair that could’ve gone either way, as both men simply clinched up for 25 minutes.

Jacare is another year older now at 40, but I still can’t pick Holland to beat him in good conscience. The Brazilian is definitely more fragile than he was in his prime, but I just don’t buy Holland as an elite-level contender right now.

More to the point, we’ve seen on numerous occasions in the UFC that a jack-of-all-trades usually loses to a specialist, particularly when that specialist has no real weaknesses of his own.

Holland will undoubtedly bring the fight to Jacare, but I believe the Brazilian will ground him and comfortably submit him – picking up his first submission in the UFC since 2017.

The Pick: Souza via first-round submission