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This weekend sees the UFC present its latest pay-per-view, UFC 258, which takes place at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.
The main event sees UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman defend his title against Gilbert Burns, while flyweights Maycee Barber and Alexa Grasso clash in the co-main.
However, UFC 258 just isn’t anywhere near as strong as UFC 257, nor does it come close to the upcoming UFC 259 card. Nevertheless, it is a chance to see a true great in action in the form of Usman.
On that note, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 258: Usman vs Burns.
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#1 UFC Welterweight title: Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns
Initially planned for last summer’s blockbuster UFC 251 card, a positive COVID-19 test for Burns delayed this event. To be honest, that might be a good thing.
UFC 251 instead saw Usman comfortably defeat mega-star Jorge Masvidal in the main event of a show that drew over a million pay-per-view buys. Does that mean that more fans will now be interested in Usman? Quite possibly.
If they are, it’s with good reason. ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ is easily the best Welterweight on the planet right now, and he may have a claim to being the best pound-for-pound fighter too.
Usman, a fabulous wrestler and a phenomenal athlete, has his physicality as his best attribute. He has essentially been able to bully every opponent he has faced in the UFC. It doesn’t matter whether that involves taking them down, beating them up in the clinch or pressuring them with an underrated striking game.
Does ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ have any weaknesses? It’s honestly hard to tell. He may well be susceptible to submissions – his only career loss, pre-UFC - came by tapout. But after arriving in the UFC, no opponent has been able to take him down to test that supposed 'weakness'.
While it’s arguable that his striking isn’t as pinpoint as someone like Stephen Thomson or Masvidal's, it does not matter when Usman can simply ragdoll them into the fence or take them down.
Burns is a bit of an interesting opponent for Usman. ‘Durinho’ has a bit of an understated UFC record – 12-3 – but it’s only since he made the shift to Welterweight in 2019 that we’ve seen the best of him.
Since then, he has reeled off four straight wins, each more impressive than the other. A world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, Burns has now developed a strong pressure-striking game, and he’s a more than an adequate wrestler, allowing both sides of his offensive game to flourish.
However, that may not be enough against Usman. For all of his developments in wrestling, the Brazilian is still worlds away from Usman. With the likes of Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley unable to take Usman down, Burns could struggle to do so.
More worrying, though, is the fact that Burns could correctly be described as a fireplug. At 5’10” and a 71” reach, he is giving up three inches of height and four of reach to Usman. And against a fighter capable of both landing strikes from long range and abusing a foe in the clinch, it doesn’t bode well for his prospects.
Burns has developed a lot in the last few years. But this fight could go along the same lines as his 2016 UFC loss to Michel Prazeres, who has a similar style to Usman’s but isn’t close to his ability.
I don’t foresee a finish here for ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’, but I’d be gobsmacked if he’s no longer the UFC Welterweight champion come Sunday.
The Pick: Usman via unanimous decision.
#2 UFC Flyweight Division: Maycee Barber vs Alexa Grasso
It’s safe to say that while this is a really well-matched fight, it’s also not really worthy of being a UFC pay-per-view co-main event. However, in a way. it’s nice to see the UFC treating it as a big deal.
Both Barber and Grasso are extremely high-end prospects in one of the UFC’s thinnest divisions. And while it’s hard to see either woman bothering UFC Flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko, if she were to step away from the division, then one of these two could definitely pick up her mantle.
The fight is an interesting clash of styles, too. Mexico’s Grasso, who is 4-3 in the UFC, is largely a striker by trade. Usually preferring to fight like a technical boxer, Grasso chains her combinations together well, pushes at a torrid pace and is largely aggressive.
Where she’s fallen down in the past has been on the ground, though. All of her UFC losses saw her outworked on the ground, with Tatiana Suarez outright finishing her with a rear-naked choke.
Her submission game is definitely improving – she almost tapped Carla Esparza – but she’s definitely susceptible to takedowns.
Barber, on the other hand, relies almost purely on her physicality and aggression to get by. One of the youngest fighters on the UFC roster, ‘The Future’ is still just 22 years old. A bulldozer of a fighter, Barber came into the UFC as a ground-and-pound machine, and destroyed Hannah Cifers in her debut.
Her second effort – a TKO win over JJ Aldrich – was less impressive. Aldrich largely picked her apart with more technical striking before falling prey to Barber’s sheer power later on. However, in her win over Gillian Robertson, her striking looked much improved, and she quickly won via TKO.
Unfortunately, Barber has not fought in almost a year. She suffered a serious knee injury in her loss to veteran Roxanne Modafferi, where she was thoroughly dominated on the ground. Quite how she’ll look in her first fight back is anyone’s guess.
It’s a tricky fight to call, but I’m leaning towards Barber, assuming the knee injury hasn’t ruined her. Grasso is better technically, but she lacks the raw power of ‘The Future’ and doesn’t have the ground skill of Modafferi.
With that in mind, I feel Barber will probably walk through her punches, take her down and dominate the Mexican on the ground en route to a late TKO win.
The Pick: Barber via a third-round TKO.
#3 UFC 258: The Main Card
UFC 258’s main card also has three more fights.
In a Middleweight bout, Kelvin Gastelum faces Ian Heinisch. Gastelum hasn’t been at his best for a while now, and is in fact on a three-fight slide. However, Israel Adesanya, Darren Till and Jack Hermansson are amongst the best Middleweights in the UFC.
Heinisch is tough and aggressive to a fault, but his game – wrestling and boxing – is one that Gastelum does slightly better. Unless Gastelum is really shot, then I think this is his fight to lose. Gastelum via decision is my pick.
In a Bantamweight rematch, Pedro Munhoz takes on Jimmie Rivera. These two fought once already, back in 2015, with Rivera edging a decision. I’m leaning towards the same result here. Munhoz has improved a little, but he’s still a power-punching boxer with a solid ground game more than anything else.
Rivera, meanwhile, has suffered plenty of disappointments during his UFC tenure, but he’s also still an excellent technical striker. And in this fight, as he is the more varied kickboxer who can push a torrid pace, that should count for a lot. Rivera via close – perhaps split – decision is the pick.
Finally, a Middleweight bout between Maki Pitolo and Julian Marquez rounds out the pay-per-view. As he’s 1-3 in the UFC, this is probably the last-chance saloon for Pitolo, but it’s hard to imagine him having that much success against Marquez.
Julian Marquez hasn’t fought since 2018, but in his earlier UFC fights, he looked excellent, knocking out Phil Hawes to earn his roster spot and choking out Darren Stewart on his UFC debut.
A loss to Alessio Di Chirico did take the wind out of his sails, but he’s still a big, well-rounded Middleweight with skill in all areas. I fancy him winning this one comfortably, possibly by a TKO.
#4 UFC 258 Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card
Picks in bold
UFC Lightweight Division: Bobby Green vs Jim Miller
UFC Middleweight division: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Anthony Hernandez
UFC Welterweight division: Dhiego Lima vs Belal Muhammad
UFC Strawweight division: Polyana Viana vs Mallory Martin
UFC Featherweight division: Ricky Simon vs Brian Kelleher
UFC Welterweight division: Gabriel Green vs Philip Rowe
UFC Flyweight division: Gillian Robertson vs Miranda Maverick.
