UFC Predictions: UFC 259: Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya Predictions & Picks

#3 UFC Bantamweight Title: Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling

Can Petr Yan turn back the challenge of Aljamain Sterling at UFC 259?

Even on a card as loaded as this, this may well be the best fight on paper.

Both Yan – the reigning UFC Bantamweight champion – and Sterling are top-class fighters. But both men equally have a lot of question marks hanging over them, and in all honesty, this fight could definitely go either way.

Yan has yet to lose a fight in the UFC. ‘No Mercy’ debuted in the promotion in 2018 and has reeled off seven straight UFC wins, culminating in his beatdown of legend Jose Aldo to claim the Bantamweight crown at UFC 251.

The Russian is a master striker, primarily using a boxing game – but as Urijah Faber found out, he can kick like a mule too.

Pressure is the name of the game for Yan. He has ridiculous cardio and can push a pace that’s usually too hot for his foes to handle.

Yan's chin appears to be made of iron judging by the shots he ate from John Dodson and Jimmie Rivera, and if an opponent does land on him, he tends to fling a nasty combination right back.

Judging by what we’ve seen thus far, nobody in the UFC’s 135lbs division is capable of outstriking him. But what about grappling? Well, to tell the truth we know basically nothing about his abilities there.

We saw him pound on Aldo from the top position, but in all honesty the Brazilian was already badly hurt by that stage. In reality, Yan hasn’t faced a top class wrestler yet – and that’s what he’ll be faced with this weekend.

Sterling came into the UFC in 2014 and was pushed as a potential Bantamweight version of Jon Jones. And it’s easy to see why.

‘The Funk Master’ is a top class athlete, with explosive power and speed. Like Jones, he’s long and lanky for his weight class (he’ll hold a 4” reach advantage over Yan). And like Jones, he was a high-level collegiate wrestler prior to his MMA career.

But early on at least, it didn’t look like Sterling would reach similar heights. His grappling was always dangerous, but his striking seemed to lag behind and he struggled in longer fights, particularly when he couldn’t get an opponent down.

That changed at some point around 2018. Since then, Sterling’s striking has improved in leaps and bounds, as he seems to have learned how to use it to set up his takedowns – and use the threat of his takedowns in the other direction.

That’s led him to five straight wins, including a submission victory over current top contender Cory Sandhagen at UFC 250.

Basically then, this fight could go either way. Yan is the better striker and so if he can keep the fight standing, he should be able to win. But if Sterling gets him down – particularly if he takes his back – then ‘No Mercy’ is likely toast.

It’s tough to call, but given we know more about Sterling’s striking than we do Yan’s grappling, I’m going with the challenger.

The Pick: Sterling via third-round submission

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#4 UFC 259: Main Card

Picks in bold

UFC Lightweight division: Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober

UFC Light-Heavyweight division: Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakic

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#5 UFC 259: Preliminary Card

Picks in bold

UFC Bantamweight division: Dominick Cruz vs. Casey Kenney

UFC Bantamweight division: Song Yadong vs. Kyler Phillips

UFC Flyweight division: Joseph Benavidez vs. Askar Askarov

UFC Flyweight division: Rogerio Bontorin vs. Kai Kara-France

UFC Strawweight division: Livinha Souza vs. Amanda Lemos

UFC Flyweight division: Tim Elliott vs. Jordan Espinosa

UFC Light-Heavyweight division: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Carlos Ulberg

UFC Welterweight division: Sean Brady vs. Jake Matthews

UFC Lightweight division: Uros Medic vs. Aalon Cruz

UFC Bantamweight division: Mario Bautista vs. Trevin Jones