UFC Predictions: UFC 262: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler Predictions & Picks

After two weekends with UFC Fight Night shows, it’s time for another pay-per-view (PPV) as the MMA promotion visits Houston, Texas for UFC 262: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler.

UFC 262’s main event sees the vacant UFC lightweight title on the line as Charles Oliveira faces Michael Chandler, while the undercard is pretty stacked too.

So without further ado, here are the predicted outcomes for the PPV:

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#1 UFC lightweight title: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

Will Charles Oliveira win the vacant UFC lightweight title this weekend?

With UFC President Dana White finally accepting former UFC lightweight kingpin Khabib Nurmagomedov’s decision to retire from MMA, a new lightweight champion will be crowned.

Is this the best title fight the UFC could have made? It’s debatable.

Oliveira, on the back of a lengthy eight-fight win streak, is definitely deserving of a shot.

However, Chandler has fought just once in the UFC. And while he knocked out Dan Hooker impressively and was a former champion in Bellator, it’s a little harder to justify his position.

A better title fight would probably have been Oliveira against Dustin Poirier. But with 'The Diamond' preoccupied with Conor McGregor, the truth is that this kind of works.

So how do the two lightweights match up? Overall, it’s an excellent clash of styles. Both men are aggressive to a fault, have skills in all areas, but neither is the most durable – making it tricky to pick a winner.

The harder hitter is probably Chandler. He’s got the kind of one-shot knockout power that’s impossible to teach. And while we saw it in the UFC against Hooker, he’s also shown it off plenty of times in Bellator too.

However, it could be argued that the more technical striker is Oliveira.

That’s surprising given that he’s got a total of four KO or TKO losses to his name. However, 'Do Bronx' has improved dramatically over the years on the feet and now packs a real wallop from all areas, particularly in the clinch.

On the ground, meanwhile, Oliveira clearly has the advantage, even if Chandler is a good submission fighter in his own right. Charles Oliveira is the most prolific submission artist in UFC history, with 16 submission wins to his name.

The big question, though, is whether Oliveira can get Chandler down. 'Iron' Mike is a four-time NCAA Division I All-American in wrestling and is arguably one of the most credentialed lightweights in UFC history in that regard.

It is worth noting, though, that Oliveira’s wrestling has improved dramatically in its own right. Most recently, we saw 'Do Bronx' take down Tony Ferguson with relative ease. He’s also handled the likes of Jim Miller and Nik Lentz in that area.

Overall, Oliveira ought to be favored in this fight. He’s the more proven fighter in the UFC, a far better submission grappler, and could emerge as the better striker too.

But 'Do Bronx' has been stopped by strikes before and, historically, isn’t the most durable fighter in the 155lbs division. That gives Chandler a big-time puncher’s chance, particularly when you consider how hard he hits.

Add in the fact that Chandler has never been submitted in MMA, and it does seem like a trickier fight for 'Do Bronx' than people might initially think.

Despite this, it’s nearly impossible to pick against a fighter who dealt with Tony Ferguson so impressively, and Oliveira has the ability to submit anyone he comes up against. Therefore, the pick is Oliveira via late tap-out.

The Pick: Oliveira via fourth-round submission

#2 UFC lightweight division: Tony Ferguson vs. Beneil Dariush

Can Tony Ferguson get back to his best at UFC 262 when he faces Beneil Dariush?

To say this is a big fight for Tony Ferguson would be an understatement. Once considered the most feared man in the division, 'El Cucuy' suffered two defeats in 2020, breaking a long winning streak that dated back to 2013.

More worryingly, he literally didn’t look like the fighter he once was in either fight, taking a real beating from Justin Gaethje and being thoroughly dominated by Charles Oliveira.

Beneil Dariush is a good match for Ferguson, at least on paper.

The Iranian grappler has improved his striking over the years to the point that he’s a very real threat in the striking game. On the ground, Dariush's Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills can match up with any lightweight on the UFC roster.

However, Dariush simply isn’t the most natural athlete and doesn’t really have any kind of explosive ability. He can knock opponents out and submit them too, but it’s hardly surprising that the Iranian's four UFC losses have come to superior athletes like Edson Barboza and Alexander Hernandez.

If Ferguson were at his physical peak, you’d probably expect him to push the pace too hard for Dariush to match, eventually breaking him down and finishing him on the feet.

But does that 'El Cucuy' even exist now, after the myriad of injury problems and brutal fights he’s had to go through? It’s hard to say. Ferguson is 37 years old and may well be past his physical prime now.

Overall, this is a tricky one to pick because of how good Ferguson once was and the fact that he was the kind of fighter who would’ve easily handled Dariush even two years ago.

However, after seeing him trucked so badly by Gaethje and Oliveira, it’s hard to pick 'El Cucuy' in good conscience.

Therefore, the pick is Dariush by unanimous decision.

The Pick: Dariush via unanimous decision

#3 UFC 262: The Main Card

Middleweight contender Jack Hermansson features on the main card of UFC 262.

UFC 262 features three more main card bouts, all of which are intriguing in their own right.

A middleweight clash pits Jack Hermansson against Edmen Shahbazyan. This one should be interesting as Shahbazyan is highly aggressive, while Hermansson is more likely to attempt to use his length to pick 'Golden Boy' apart.

It’s a tricky one to call. But based on the fact that Hermansson has survived big shots before and is used to dragging opponents into deep water – something Shahbazyan appeared to struggle with when he fought Derek Brunson – 'The Joker' via second-round TKO is the pick.

At flyweight, former UFC title challenger Katlyn Chookagian takes on Viviane Araujo. Chookagian has not fought since her loss to Jessica Andrade in 2020, but before that, she looked excellent in her win over Antonina Shevchenko.

'Blonde Fighter' must be the favorite here. Araujo has some solid wins to her name but hasn’t fought anyone as good as Chookagian, who is an excellent striker even if her finishing skills aren’t the best. Chookagian via decision is the pick.

Finally, at featherweight, Shane Burgos battles Edson Barboza in what could be the Fight of the Night. These two are likely to fling bombs at one another, and the result should come down to whether Burgos can fight a smarter fight than he often does.

If he can, he’s more durable than Barboza and should outwork him down the stretch, perhaps taking a late TKO. If Burgos fights fire with fire, then he may well find himself knocked out. Overall this is an awesome fight, but Burgos via third-round TKO is the pick.

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#4 UFC 262: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC middleweight division: Jacare Souza vs. Andre Muniz

UFC bantamweight division: Matt Schnell vs. Rogerio Bontorin

UFC flyweight division: Andrea Lee vs. Antonina Shevchenko

UFC lightweight division: Christos Giagos vs. Sean Soriano

UFC featherweight division: Lando Vannata vs. Mike Grundy

UFC middleweight division: Jordan Wright vs. Jamie Pickett

UFC flyweight division: Gina Mazany vs. Priscila Cachoeira

UFC featherweight division: Kevin Aguilar vs. Tucker Lutz