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This weekend sees one of the biggest UFC events of 2021, as UFC 264: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 3 takes place in Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena.
UFC 264 sees Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor end their trilogy in the main event, while Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson battle in the co-main event.
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This promises to be one of the most epic UFC shows in some time, so without further ado here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 264: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor III.
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#4 UFC lightweight division: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
The main event of UFC 264 will see Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor end their epic trilogy, following Poirier’s defeat of McGregor in their rematch at UFC 257 in January.
That fight would’ve been alarming for longtime McGregor fans to watch, but they’ll be hoping that it has acted as a wake-up call for ‘The Notorious’ leading into this rubber match.
The first time McGregor and Poirier faced off was at UFC 178 in 2014. Both men were featherweights at the time. Poirier was more proven in the octagon, while McGregor was just forging his path on his way to becoming the biggest UFC star of all time.
Many fans picked Poirier to win the fight, feeling McGregor was all hype – but ‘The Notorious’ proved them wrong in dramatic fashion by dispatching of ‘The Diamond’ in the opening round. He knocked him out with a lancing left hand to the side of the head.
Of course, everyone knows the story from there. McGregor went on to win the UFC featherweight and lightweight titles, becoming the biggest star in MMA history in the process.
Poirier, meanwhile, took a harder route, but after wins over Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and Max Holloway, became the interim UFC lightweight champion in 2019. He failed to become the undisputed champ when he lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov, but that stands as his only loss since 2016.
In his rematch with McGregor at UFC 257, Poirier fought the perfect fight. ‘The Diamond’ used low leg kicks to soften the Irishman up, taking advantage of McGregor’s boxing-oriented gameplan.
From there, he drew him into an exchange and, using his own pressure-based boxing game, ended up becoming the first man to knock McGregor out in his UFC career.
So how will this third bout go? It’s safe to say that Poirier should come in with total confidence. ‘The Diamond’ didn’t really struggle at all to take McGregor out in January. Also, at lightweight, his chin is far better equipped to take a heavy shot from the Irishman than it was at UFC 178.
However, McGregor can definitely win this fight. He’s probably the quicker fighter, and if he can get back to the style that led him to the top of the UFC in the first place – a lot of emphasis on movement, angles and timing rather than purely boxing – he remains a bad match for ‘The Diamond’.
The question for ‘The Notorious’ is how hungry he actually is at this point. When he first fought Poirier, he was a young fighter looking to climb the ladder. Nowadays, he’s got millions in the bank and probably doesn’t need to fight.
However, McGregor has historically performed at his best when fans have written him off. He looks in phenomenal shape, has claimed he’s focused his camp on “nothing but MMA”, and is obviously desperate to prove his doubters wrong.
So with that in mind, it won’t be easy but a McGregor victory by knockout is the prediction.
The Pick: McGregor via second round KO
#3 UFC welterweight division: Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson
This welterweight bout not only promises to be an excellent clash of two of the better 170lbers on the UFC’s roster, it could also act as a route for one of the fighters to earn a title shot.
Unfortunately, even with a win, a title shot probably isn’t in Gilbert Burns’ imminent future. ‘Durinho’ took his shot at UFC welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman earlier this year. While he had some success in the opening round, he eventually succumbed to a third round knockout.
This fight, therefore, will give us plenty of indication as to how the Brazilian has bounced back from such a devastating loss.
Stephen Thompson, on the other hand, is currently riding a strong two-fight win streak. He’s only fought sporadically in recent years – four fights since 2018 – but he did defeat Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal, impressing in both fights.
Therefore, if ‘Wonderboy’ can defeat a previous title contender here, he may well have a case for his own shot at Usman.
This fight is likely to come down to which man can impose his style on the other. For Burns, it’s imperative that he keeps Thompson on the back foot.
He’ll probably look to back him up using the threat of his takedown, and then look to either bring the fight to the ground, where he can unleash his submission game, or hit him with one of his clubbing power punches.
‘Wonderboy’, on the other hand, will look to bamboozle Burns with his movement, keep him guessing, and pick at him en route to a clear-cut decision or, better still, a knockout.
In all honesty it could go either way, but the big question is whether Burns has the capability to carry off his gameplan against a tricky UFC fighter like Thompson.
After all, the only men to beat ‘Wonderboy’ in the UFC in recent years were Anthony Pettis, Tyron Woodley and Darren Till. Till engaged him and somehow beat him in a point-fighting affair, Pettis landed a once-in-a-lifetime knockout and prime Woodley was faster than Burns is.
Therefore, it’s likely that despite his best efforts, Burns won’t be able to get hold of Thompson. Burns will instead eat a series of chipping blows before suffering a late knockout once he’s begun to wear down.
The Pick: Thompson via third round KO
#2 UFC 264: The Main Card
UFC 264’s main card features three more fights. In the heavyweight division, Tai Tuivasa faces Greg Hardy. Both of these big men have shown themselves to be limited fighters, but of the two, Hardy has more issues due to his poor cardio.
Both men can definitely hit, and the fight is almost certain to remain standing due to the questionable ground skills on both sides. However, Hardy’s penchant for gassing is a major worry.
Add in the fact that Tuivasa is surprisingly quick for a big man and has only struggled with ground specialists, and the pick here is ‘Bam Bam’ via TKO.
In a bantamweight fight, Irene Aldana fights Yana Kunitskaya. Aldana is an interesting case. A pinpoint striker with excellent boxing, her only recent loss came at the hands of Holly Holm, one of the best female strikers in UFC history.
Kunitskaya is more of a grinding fighter who loves the clinch, and she’ll also be bigger than Aldana. But whether she can get inside against the Mexican fighter is another thing entirely. It’ll be close, but Aldana via decision is the pick.
Finally, Sean O’Malley faces newcomer Kris Moutinho in a bantamweight bout. This is curious booking from the UFC as O’Malley had no shortage of suitors once his initial opponent Louis Smolka dropped out.
The fact that they’ve picked a newcomer like Moutinho is therefore indicative that they probably want ‘The Sugar Show’ to pick up another big knockout win for his highlight reel. Therefore, the obvious pick here is O’Malley via KO.
#1 UFC 264: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC welterweight division: Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin
UFC welterweight division: Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira
UFC featherweight division: Ryan Hall vs. Ilia Topuria
UFC middleweight division: Dricus du Plessis vs. Trevin Giles
UFC flyweight division: Jennifer Maia vs. Jessica Eye
UFC middleweight division: Omari Akhmedov vs. Brad Tavares
UFC flyweight division: Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs. Jerome Rivera
UFC middleweight division: Alen Amedovski vs. Hu Yaozong
