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After a couple of lesser events at the Las Vegas Apex, the UFC is back on pay-per-view this weekend for UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane in Houston, Texas. UFC 265 may have lost its co-main event, but it still looks like a pretty fabulous card with plenty of talent well worth watching throughout.
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So with a number of fights that could impact UFC title pictures – as well as an interim title fight on top – this is an event no UFC fan can afford to miss. Without further ado, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane.
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#1 Interim UFC heavyweight title: Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane
The latest interim title fight in the UFC isn’t without its fair share of controversy. Essentially, current champion Francis Ngannou is not injured, nor is he in a true contract dispute with the promotion.
In fact, the only crime committed by ‘The Predator’ was to suggest that he wouldn’t be ready for a title defense against either Derrick Lewis or Ciryl Gane at this show, apparently leaving the UFC with no choice but to create an interim title.
Is it a little ridiculous? Sure. But at the end of the day, one of these two tremendous fighters will now end up with a UFC title which should at least guarantee them a shot at Ngannou next – probably putting an end to the hopes of a fight between Jon Jones and ‘The Predator’.
So who will win? On paper, at least, this probably shouldn’t be a close fight. Simply put, skill for skill, Gane is far superior to Lewis in every single aspect.
‘Bon Gamin’ is a huge heavyweight, standing at 6’ 5” and weighing around 245 lbs with very little body fat. His striking is fabulous. He not only has shown serious power in his strikes, both at range and from close quarters, but he’s also got arguably the best technique in the division – something that allowed him to pick apart both Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov.
Gane has also picked up two UFC wins via submission, and his last two fights saw him comfortably go five rounds, meaning there can be no questions around his cardio either.
Lewis, meanwhile, on the surface, at least, is not all that durable for a heavyweight, lacks a deep gas tank, struggles if a fight hits the ground, and isn’t all that technical.
However, ‘The Black Beast’ possesses such incredible punching power that he cannot be counted out of any fight – even one like this where he seems to be horribly overmatched.
We’ve seen him pull victories from the jaws of defeat time and again. He has beaten the likes of Travis Browne, Volkov and Curtis Blaydes. all despite struggling early on. With Lewis, all it takes is one shot – even if he’s hurt or tired – and the fight could likely get over.
However, what makes this fight particularly tricky for him is that Gane seemingly doesn’t care about putting on a wild fight. He’s not willing to trade-off and risk a loss if he can simply keep an opponent at the end of his strikes from distance – and that makes it very difficult to envision Lewis landing the bomb he’ll need to win.
With all things considered, despite Lewis fighting in his home state, this one sounds like Gane’s fight to lose unless he makes a major error.
The Pick: Gane via fourth-round TKO.
#2 UFC bantamweight division: Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz
UFC 265 was planned to have another title fight – the UFC bantamweight title clash between Amanda Nunes and Julianna Pena – in its co-main event slot, but thanks to COVID-19, that fight has now been postponed.
Thankfully, Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz isn’t a bad replacement at all. This fight pits two of the top-ranked 135 lbers in the world against one another. While both men are getting a bit older now, it should still be a lot of fun.
For Munhoz, this probably represents his final chance at breaking into title contention at 135 lb. ‘The Young Punisher’ almost made it there in 2019 with his win over Cody Garbrandt, but lost to future champion Aljamain Sterling and was then forced out for well over a year.
When he returned, he lost to Frankie Edgar. While he has since beaten Jimmie Rivera, he’s probably worse off now than he was before the Garbrandt win.
Aldo, meanwhile, looked just about finished at the top level after he lost to Petr Yan in a UFC bantamweight title fight last year, but bounced back nicely against Marlon Vera in December.
He’s not the same Aldo who terrorised the featherweight division for nearly a decade. But it’s clear that he’s still got plenty to offer at 135 lb and can certainly compete with the best in the world there.
This fight looks like a good one for the former UFC champion. Aldo is still almost as quick as he was in his prime. He’s still excellent when it comes to firing off leg kicks and rapid-fire combinations too.
Munhoz, in contrast, prefers a more boxing-based attack. While he is an excellent grappler, it’s unlikely he’ll catch a fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt like Aldo in his signature guillotine.
Could ‘The Young Punisher’ land a big shot to knock Aldo out? Anything is possible in the UFC, but it seems unlikely, given he seems slower than Aldo, and the former champion still has most of his durability intact.
Instead, it’s likely Aldo will land the heavier strikes – probably a lot of combinations. Even if he can’t finish Munhoz, he should be more than capable of outworking him for a decision victory.
The Pick: Aldo via unanimous decision.
#3 UFC 265: The Main Card
In what sounds like a brilliant fight, surging welterweight contenders Michael Chiesa and Vicente Luque meet on UFC 265’s main card.
This fight should provide fans with an intriguing clash of styles. While Luque is a more than capable grappler, he clearly prefers to strike, and has picked up most of his submission wins over opponents he has already hurt with his striking.
Chiesa, meanwhile, is practically a pure grappler, preferring to drag his opponents to the ground with his surprising strength and then either hunting for a choke or simply blanketing them with heavy top control and strong ground-and-pound.
This one is tricky to pick, but it is worth noting that the ageing Tyron Woodley aside, Luque has not faced a wrestler nearly as good as ‘Maverick’ in his entire UFC career. And to add to that, Chiesa is remarkably durable, and has never been stopped via strikes. With that considered, Chiesa via decision is the pick.
In a strawweight rematch, Tecia Torres and Angela Hill will face off. The first time these two fought was way back in 2015 at UFC 188, where Torres largely blanketed Hill with top control for a decision win.
Can she repeat the feat? It could be tricky. ‘The Tiny Tornado’ has won her last two UFC bouts, but they were both against overmatched opponents, and before that, she was on a four-fight losing streak.
And more to the point, Hill has improved dramatically since that first meeting with Torres – enough to be able to arguably beat Claudia Gadelha last year, although she came out at the wrong end of a controversial decision. This one should be close, but the pick is Hill via decision.
Finally, Song Yadong takes on Casey Kenney in a bantamweight clash. Both of these men are coming off losses, but remain two of the 135 lb division’s best prospects.
It should also be a close fight to call, as both men have excellent skills in all areas. However, Yadong appears to be the slightly more explosive fighter, and almost certainly hits a little harder than Kenney. If he doesn't gas out, Yadong should be able to win this one by decision.
#4: UFC 265: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC lightweight division: Bobby Green vs Rafael Fiziev.
UFC bantamweight division: Vince Morales vs Drako Rodriguez.
UFC light-heavyweight division: Ed Herman vs Alonzo Menifield.
UFC strawweight division: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Jessica Penne.
UFC flyweight division: Manel Kape vs Ode Osbourne/
UFC bantamweight division: Miles Johns vs Anderson dos Santos/
UFC flyweight division: Victoria Leonardo vs Melissa Gatto.
UFC bantamweight division: Johnny Munoz Jr. v. Jamey Simmons/
